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Thread: Variance Question

  1. #1


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    Variance Question

    All things being equal, does variance gets smaller the deeper the penetration into a shoe?

    If this is true, is this because there are less cards to choose from?

    Are there other reasons that variance decreases with deeper penetrations?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by MercySakesAlive View Post
    All things being equal, does variance gets smaller the deeper the penetration into a shoe?

    If this is true, is this because there are less cards to choose from?

    Are there other reasons that variance decreases with deeper penetrations?
    Your biggest counts come late in the shoe. With big counts come big bets, which can mean big variance. Naturally, shitty counts produce minimum bets, so obviously, less of an issue.

  3. #3


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    Removed
    Last edited by Stealth; 08-14-2018 at 09:24 PM.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  4. #4


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    Its the SIZE of the bet that creates big variance more so than the fact that there might be 200 cards that could come out early in a shoe as opposed to only 50 cards later in the shoe ?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by MercySakesAlive View Post
    Its the SIZE of the bet that creates big variance
    Fundamentally, yes. The standard deviation at the truc count plays a role in the calculation also.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  6. #6


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    I thought that the deeper the penn, the more chances of big bets and thus more variance. Is it a myth that the deeper the penn can go, the more variance one gets, he it cards or women?

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I thought that the deeper the penn, the more chances of big bets and thus more variance. Is it a myth that the deeper the penn can go, the more variance one gets, he it cards or women?
    Cards, yes
    Women, variable to the angle of the dangle. Think of her in terms of a WiFi hotspot with strong reception. Add security by making yourself a personal hot spot. Dazzle her with a stream of non stop data. Improve reception by better antennae placement. Adjust by rotating dials.

    Utilization of the above, in terms of 1 poster here, will smooth the ride. Better variance will be yours.

  8. #8


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    well, the better the game and the higher your hourly, the less likely you are to be down money in any given time period, and deep penetration usually does a good game make.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Cards, yes
    Women, variable to the angle of the dangle. Think of her in terms of a WiFi hotspot with strong reception. Add security by making yourself a personal hot spot. Dazzle her with a stream of non stop data. Improve reception by better antennae placement. Adjust by rotating dials.

    Utilization of the above, in terms of 1 poster here, will smooth the ride. Better variance will be yours.
    This brings a whole new meaning to the term "pit critters".

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by MercySakesAlive View Post
    All things being equal, does variance gets smaller the deeper the penetration into a shoe?
    No, variance gets larger with bet size. And even larger with more frequent doubles and splits. The frequency of high counts and thus bet size and the frequency of doubles and splits all go up the deeper the pen. All that contributes to increased variance.

  11. #11


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Variance is biting me this month. Last month, I won 15 of 17 sessions and I won $8k+, Last three sessions, lost $1100, $1120 and $1570. Hope the losing stops soon.

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