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Thread: At what point is a cash back rebate good?

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    At what point is a cash back rebate good?

    A lot of the online casinos i play at have promotions that give cash back on your net losses. They range from 10% to 25%. Do any of these promotions make it worth playing? I'm not a math guy so i can't figure this out myself.

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    It's all about the specifics of the offer.

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    Loss rebates is (primarily) how Don Johnson made $15M

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    It's all about the specifics of the offer.
    They just give you back whatever percentage of your loss a few days later. You can play any game, including blackjack. It's usually only up to $100 back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    They just give you back whatever percentage of your loss a few days later. You can play any game, including blackjack. It's usually only up to $100 back.
    cottage cheese,

    Say, for example, the offer is for 10% cash back on losses for the day, with a cap of $100 in cash back. In this case, bet $100/0.10 = $1,000 on Banker in baccarat. If the hand ties, keep betting until you either win or lose a hand. Neglecting ties, you'll win (and collect $950, since the house charges a 5% commission on winning Banker bets) 50.7% of the time, and lose the remaining 49.3% of the time but collect your cash back of $100 for a net loss of $900. Thus, your edge will be ($950*50.7% - $900*49.3%)/$1000 = +3.795%. Using this simple method, you'll win nearly $38 per day... until the casino reneges on the offer and keeps your money.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Loss rebates is (primarily) how Don Johnson made $15M
    This is false. His crew was counting, tracking and hole carding. The loss rebates were a ruse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    This is false. His crew was counting, tracking and hole carding. The loss rebates were a ruse.
    You’re both wrong. Don Johnson’s biggest - and most famous score - for $5.8 million was at the Tropicana in April 2011. For this big score, he was playing solo (no crew was around) for 15 hours playing basic strategy, and not counting cards. He got lucky that night. Don even admits he wasn’t counting cards. At one point, he won something like 41 straight hands during this session. How do I know? Research and common sense. He was allowed back into the Tropicana after this big win and the Tropicana reviewed his play extensivly. Tropicana was okay with his big win since he was playing in a negative EV way. He did what anybody could do, got lucky in the short run, but he was playing much higher stakes than your average joe blow gambler.

    What made Don Johnson famous? The casinos and the Atlantic magazine where they featured him on their cover with their lead story called “The Man Who Broke Atlantic City”. The casinos were the ones who alerted reporters to Don’s wins in their quarterly conference calls. The casinos made Don Johnson their slot winner poster child for whales. You see casinos like winners as long as they play the game on their terms, which Don did. These wins are the ones discussed in the Atlantic magazine article. Btw, there is no mention of all his losing sessions, which he had many by his own admission.

    Bottom line is we don’t know how much Don won after all his winning and losing sessions. Don won’t revel this, but we can be pretty sure it was far short of $15 million after his losing sessions are taken into account.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    You’re both wrong. Don Johnson’s biggest - and most famous score - for $5.8 million was at the Tropicana in April 2011. For this big score, he was playing solo (no crew was around) for 15 hours playing basic strategy, and not counting cards.
    He was working a lot of angles. Don't speak of which you know no insiders to tell you what was actually going on. If you think anything that he said about what he was doing to any public forum is true, then you don't understand how to protect big plays. Why would he tell anyone everything he was doing. He told people what the casinos already knew. If he obviously counted they would have killed his rebate deal quick. He had some very sweet terms to that deal that you are not going to get. Like I said the rebate is as good as the specifics of the offer. But a lot more was going on beside the rebate and he wouldn't risk what he was doing by getting caught counting cards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    You see casinos like winners as long as they play the game on their terms, which Don did.
    Lol. Wrong. The casinos lost a fortune and knew they could generate plus EV if they exposed how much you could win to tempt others to come and lose. He played along with it and said it was just a cash rebate so the casinos could get their advertisement in what Don had done. It was simply good business for the casinos to handle it that way and get free advertising.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    He was working a lot of angles. Don't speak of which you know no insiders to tell you what was actually going on. If you think anything that he said about what he was doing to any public forum is true, then you don't understand how to protect big plays. Why would he tell anyone everything he was doing. He told people what the casinos already knew. If he obviously counted they would have killed his rebate deal quick. He had some very sweet terms to that deal that you are not going to get. Like I said the rebate is as good as the specifics of the offer. But a lot more was going on beside the rebate and he wouldn't risk what he was doing by getting caught counting cards.
    Three, it is not debatable on what happened at the Tropicana with Don Johnson. Don was playing solo there for 15 hours. It’s documented. There is quite a bit on this including the CEO of the Tropicana at that time commenting on it.

    I fully understand Don Johnson also did other AP plays with his crew, but this is not what made him famous. The win that made Don famous was at the Tropicana. That is the one that put him on the map and the one that got the Atlantic magazine reporter on his trail. In this big win (the one that made him famous), Don was not playing with an advantage. He got lucky, playing in a negative EV way.

    Why was April 2011 at the Tropicana important? That was the month the Tropicana showed a loss for bj, which is very rare, but not unheard of, for a casino. The Tropicana was the casino that pointed out to the reporters that their bj loss for that month was due to one player, Don Johnson. Don wasn’t the one bragging about it. It was the casinos bragging about it. They like to show the public people can win big money at their casinos and be welcome back, and that’s what they did with Don Johnson. That’s why I call Don Johnson the casino’s slot poster winner for whales.

    Here’s another interesting fact during that time. On April 2011 (the same month Tropicana showed a loss in bj), Caesars showed one of their biggest wins ever for bj. I wonder if this was Don Johnson giving most of his Tropicana winnings back to Caesars? Yes, I know Don Johnson had a big win at Ceasers in Atlantic City but it was before April 2011.

    I will repeat Don Johnson had a lot of big losing sessions by his own admission. We will never know how much he really won after all his loses. All we know about is his three big winning sessions, which totaled $15 million. We don’t know the whole story.

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    There is a difference between playing solo and having an entourage watching you. I don't want to reveal too much so that is all I am going to say. It is best not to reveal how these things are done so just drop it. Many here know how it was done so trying to impress will just make you look like an idiot. Sometimes I think that is your sole goal when posting.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    There is a difference between playing solo and having an entourage watching you. I don't want to reveal too much so that is all I am going to say. It is best not to reveal how these things are done so just drop it. Many here know how it was done so trying to impress will just make you look like an idiot. Sometimes I think that is your sole goal when posting.
    At the Tropicana, his entourage was not watching him. Have you read what happened there? I have. He was in a room by himself, with a dealer and a waitress would come in to give him drinks. If people were standing around the table watching him, don’t you think surveillance would have noticed that? Don’t you think they would have noticed someone sending him signals?

    As he was winning, suvellaince was watching him closer and closer. That’s what casinos do when someone is winning big. And they never backed him off. Why? Because he wasn’t counting. That night at one point he won 41 hands in a row. Yes, this can happen. It’s called variance. Or do you think he had his entourage standing outside the room sending esp mind waves to the cards to make all the good ones go to him?

    Btw, this was one of the best things that ever happened to casinos. They like winners, as long as they are playing the way casinos want them to play. This was a marketing bonanza for them, and they exploited it. That’s why they wanted everyone to know who Don Johnson was. They got way more return from this than anything they could have done through advertising. 7 years later and people are still talking about it. All because the casinos made Don Johnson famous by giving his name to reporters. Even in a big loss, casinos know how to spin in to their favor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    Don’t you think they would have noticed someone sending him signals?
    He didn't use his entourage to send signals. You have no clue all the things he had going. He used a lot of techniques to make money without counting cards. You don't get it. If he at all looked like a card counter his play would die. He got advantage without doing anything a card counter would do. It doesn't mean he wasn't counting but he didn't use the information in any way that you would use the information. You don't understand the depth of what he was doing. If he looked remote like a card counter he was toast. That would be a very stupid thing to do. You just aren't thinking outside the box.

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