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Thread: Freightman, How Did Your Blackjack Trip Go

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Everything seems like a lot of work until you get used to it.You are born as lump that can't even crawl. crawling is a lot of work until you get used to it. Then it becomes second nature. Learning to stand is hard until you get used to the skills needed to keep your balance. Then walking, running, riding a bike, riding a skateboard, skiing, driving a car, and even flying a plane. Each step along the way seems hard when you are thinking about learning it or learn it, but becomes second nature with enough practice. You are at the toddler stage (the second stage) and looking for excuses not to become proficient at any other mode of transportation. That is fine but don't act like because learning something is hard it will always be hard to do. Life repeatedly teaches us different. The question is can you learn something and if you can how long will it take to become second nature. I use different really hard counts to master for different games. Much harder than traditional counts you will find information about. But they are all automatic now. I don't even think about counting and can easily keep up with every dealer. A glance at the table is all I need to get the count and everything in my region worth playing are shoe games. My point is your comment is from a perspective of someone that never tried to master more than the simplest of tasks. Those that have mastered more difficult tasks have differing opinions.
    T3, this is silly. I can practice all I want but I am not going to play basketball like LeBron James or make it to the NBA. People like Tarzan or you may have gotten there but stop telling people that they too can do it.

    Age, physical ability (if basketball) or mental aptitude and ability are important factors. Not everyone can become what a superstar is. People have to be honest in their assessment of what they are capable off and stay within their limits. Encouraging newbies and young people to this profession is like a Kobe or LeBron encouraging people to put more into basketball cause they too can make a living playing pro-ball and that screws up a whole lot of folks.

  2. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    T3, this is silly. I can practice all I want but I am not going to play basketball like LeBron James or make it to the NBA. People like Tarzan or you may have gotten there but stop telling people that they too can do it.
    I just didn't stop trying. I showed no improvement for 6 weeks trying to learn to do one of the added skills I use. For 6 weeks I never even counted a deck down correctly once. Then, after 6 weeks of practice, I did it a few times in about 50 attempts one day. Within two more weeks I was perfect every time and it was just a matter of making it automatic with no thought and being faster than any dealer. That took almost a year. But when I train people to do it they shave time off of that because I give them advice. It is usually shortened by half the time it took me. It isn't that you can't learn. You just would quit before you learn the new skills.

  3. #16


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    Three, some of the skills you and Tarzan possess is frankly beyond comprehension to some others including myself. Taking a step further back some players do not even know the proper way to side count. Or for that matter even knowing the proper methods for learning a level two count. This is a fact and not excuses as no one is looking for any. Some players are often assumed as lazy for where they stopped in their BJ education. Some of them are in fact lazy, and some are still as competitive as they come, and do what they need to do very well without complaining. You really want to help out some others, explain the proper methods to get started the right way of doing things others may not know how to.
    Last edited by BoSox; 08-11-2018 at 02:31 PM.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Three, some of the skills you and Tarzan possess is frankly beyond comprehension to some others including myself. Taking a step further back some players do not even know the proper way to side count. Or for that matter even knowing the proper methods for learning a level two count. This is a fact and not excuses as no one is looking for any. Some players are often assumed as lazy for where they stopped in their BJ education. Some of them are in fact lazy, and some are still as competitive as they come, and do what they need to do very well without complaining. You really want to help out some others, explain the proper methods to get started the right way of doing things others may not know how to.
    The best way...... for me......
    It started with baby steps. My father couldn’t drive anymore, so I began to take him to casinos. It cost me a few bucks, which I objected to, heard about counting, did some online research and came up with some Snyder sites, and the rudiments of hi lo.

    I practiced like hell in front of my tv, speed and accuracy, bought some book, and then heard about index play. I was a sponge for info. Came across a guy who then encouraged me to switch to halves (10 years ago now) who also taught me the rudiments if shuffle tracking. Also made another friend, who peruses these boards as well, and who has a habit of losing the coin toss (rightfully so) and accordingly, is usually still picking up the lunch tab.

    I got better, because I wanted to get better, as well as the fact that I had a natural affinity for it. When i didn’t think I could get better, I got better. It is a continual learning process. I have to admit that I don’t practice much anymore. After a 1,000,000 hands or so of blackjack, it’s kind of automatic, though I still refer to my references to confirm something or check on something really obscure.

    Any verified system gets the money. I wanted more. Though I don’t put in the hours now like I used to, I truly believe my game to be the best it’s ever been. Other than some bullshit, including some Doofus on a current thread, I try to give back where I can. And though I don’t get much out now, they’re still those occasional nuggets that come my way.

    The forum has, essentially marvelled at Tarzan. He doesn’t post much, but I’ve picked up some goodies from him. The forum has also ridiculed a couple of posters, one of whom I did as well (primarily for excessive verbosity) and who has made a conscious effort to improve on that point. The other, ridiculed excessively for his single deck mindset.

    There is commonality of ideas, (doubt they would agree) though differences in approach between Tarzan, 3, and Moses. I have a feeling that the 3 of them may not even see it - but it’s there - I’ve seen it, though it’s clear that most have not, and I have adopted their ideas, melding them into something similar that works for me.

    So, there you have it. The concepts kinda sorta alluded to can be adapted to any balanced system, not prepared to comment on unbalanced systems.

  5. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Three, some of the skills you and Tarzan possess is frankly beyond comprehension to some others including myself. Taking a step further back some players do not even know the proper way to side count. Or for that matter even knowing the proper methods for learning a level two count. This is a fact and not excuses as no one is looking for any.
    No excuses necessary. The simple counts get the money. You just need to endure some extra crap along the way especially if you don't play to the strengths of your simple count.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Some players are often assumed as lazy for where they stopped in their BJ education. Some of them are in fact lazy, and some are still as competitive as they come, and do what they need to do very well without complaining.
    You can do a lot toward helping your results for simple counts just by understanding their strengths and weaknesses and making decisions accordingly. Not much extra is required. Getting away with it for a long time becomes more of an art but there are ways to do that as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    You really want to help out some others, explain the proper methods to get started the right way of doing things others may not know how to.
    This is not my strong suit. I started self taught with no reference material on games that you had an off the top edge on if you played BS. I was playing profitably for maybe a decade before I came across the reference material for the count I thought up. That turned out to be Hiopt1/ASC. But I didn't know how to properly research plays or betting. It was totally flying by the seat of my pants. I did do count upgrades a few times. And spent a lot of time learning the game once the wealth of research others had done to pave the way was found. My advice for starting players would be a bit different than everyone else's so you can be happy that I leave that to you guys that learned that way. I think what you believe is easy depends on what your first step was. That is what your baseline for as easy. Since I learned a level 1 ace neutral count first and mostly played shoes my entire career comments about side counting and shoe games being hard are tough to understand. That is my baseline for easy. I get that people don't understand how to maximize the utility of information gathered and don't think it is worth it but I don't find it anything but easy. I would want to give someone I advise the gift of finding what many call difficult as the baseline for easy. That means more practice to start with but that is what I would try. Newbies always want to play too soon. they can learn all kinds of other things about the game at the same time they are in the just practice mode. If they get to where they think they can play too soon they learn some things that they might have learned from study the hard way. But maybe the only way for those lessons to sink in is to get a dose of a real life lesson rather than studying theory.
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    There is commonality of ideas, (doubt they would agree) though differences in approach between Tarzan, 3, and Moses.
    I totally agree. Our methods of using additional information are different but we are all squeezing more utility out of information gathered by using it in a non-traditional way. That utility be used to do a lot of things that a traditional approach to using information can't. The best value is not in statistics but in having tools to use to get away with counting while making significant money but looking like you are not a threat to the casino.
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    So, there you have it. The concepts kinda sorta alluded to can be adapted to any balanced system, not prepared to comment on unbalanced systems.
    Yes they can be adapted to any balanced system. I am not comfortable commenting on unbalanced approaches either as I have never used one. I totally understand the theory but that is different than having experience in the trenches using them.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The more weak doubles and splits that are barely in play for the TC bin you are looking at the more your crazy results are tamed. Strong doubles and splits gain EV quickly and will gain enough EV quickly after the index is exceeded that the inaccuracy you are correcting for is quickly exceeded.
    Seems as though this is a reference to risk averse betting. Is it?

    IMHO, this thread is an excellent example of the sharing of useful information. Thanks to all who posted.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Or for that matter even knowing the proper methods for learning a level two count.
    So what is the proper method for learning a level 2 count? I just sat down and learned it, maybe I did it wrong.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    So what is the proper method for learning a level 2 count? I just sat down and learned it, maybe I did it wrong.
    I do not know.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I didn't want to get into theo makes how much pissing contest but variance is more interesting. My best upswing in variance was 3 long weekends in a row where I made over $10K each weekend. I was up about $40K for 3 weeks. I was just winning with an occasional big win while rarely losing and when I lost it was a small loss that was easily erased. Then, a month later, I started a bad stretch. I spun my wheels for 6 weeks barely making anything. But those 6 weeks spanned two calendar months and I was ahead $10K for both calendar months. Later that year I hit a bad patch where I lost $6K quick but it was bookended by bigger wins on both sides and quickly erased. This was with the smaller, less frequent losses and more frequent win approach.

    Then I made some changes to squeeze some extra EV out and raise SCORE but it caused swings to go nuts. The next year I was regularly losing $5 to $10K in a weekend trip and was winning less frequently while losing more frequently and much larger amounts. I was way below EV. I finally figured out how the changes to get more EV had caused results to be turned upside-down (after a severe ass kicking that had me contemplating what I had changed I figured it out). After making even more changes to give up some SCORE and EV I was winning even better than I had before. Lots more wins with occasional small losses mixed in and the rare getting your ass kicked in a shoe, but the worst was much less of a kick in the balls and almost never happened.

    Now the variance for the pleasant ride is more than the variance for the extremely crazy ride. I discovered variance is a long term stat and has nothing to do with indicating short term swings or what I call the ride to the long run. With one method variance was mostly negative (I spent most of my time way below EV waiting for that big run of shoes to raise me up to EV) and with the other variance was mostly positive (I spent most of my time way above EV waiting for a long spinning wheels stretch or a short steep lose to drop my average back closer to EV. Now this was not for BJ. But, in BJ, I use different techniques to get the same trade off of EV and SCORE for less frequent and smaller losses with more frequent wins. The effect on the swings and the way BR grows is the same. You tend to run way above EV only to be corrected to closer to EV by the same sort of spinning wheels or a very short but steep loss that is quickly erased. These corrections are relatively rare but expected.
    If you are running to the bank with a smile showing, on a consistent basis, would it be in your best interest "as well as everyone else's" to not always be talking about it?
    Last edited by BoSox; 08-14-2018 at 11:59 AM.

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    If you are running to the bank with a smile showing, on a consistent basis, would it be in your best interest "as well as everyone else's" to not always be talking about it?
    There was a point to that, I hope you didn't miss it.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I didn't want to get into theo makes how much pissing contest but variance is more interesting. My best upswing in variance was 3 long weekends in a row where I made over $10K each weekend. I was up about $40K for 3 weeks. I was just winning with an occasional big win while rarely losing and when I lost it was a small loss that was easily erased. Then, a month later, I started a bad stretch. I spun my wheels for 6 weeks barely making anything. But those 6 weeks spanned two calendar months and I was ahead $10K for both calendar months. Later that year I hit a bad patch where I lost $6K quick but it was bookended by bigger wins on both sides and quickly erased. This was with the smaller, less frequent losses and more frequent win approach.

    Then I made some changes to squeeze some extra EV out and raise SCORE but it caused swings to go nuts. The next year I was regularly losing $5 to $10K in a weekend trip and was winning less frequently while losing more frequently and much larger amounts. I was way below EV. I finally figured out how the changes to get more EV had caused results to be turned upside-down (after a severe ass kicking that had me contemplating what I had changed I figured it out). After making even more changes to give up some SCORE and EV I was winning even better than I had before. Lots more wins with occasional small losses mixed in and the rare getting your ass kicked in a shoe, but the worst was much less of a kick in the balls and almost never happened.

    Now the variance for the pleasant ride is more than the variance for the extremely crazy ride. I discovered variance is a long term stat and has nothing to do with indicating short term swings or what I call the ride to the long run. With one method variance was mostly negative (I spent most of my time way below EV waiting for that big run of shoes to raise me up to EV) and with the other variance was mostly positive (I spent most of my time way above EV waiting for a long spinning wheels stretch or a short steep lose to drop my average back closer to EV. Now this was not for BJ. But, in BJ, I use different techniques to get the same trade off of EV and SCORE for less frequent and smaller losses with more frequent wins. The effect on the swings and the way BR grows is the same. You tend to run way above EV only to be corrected to closer to EV by the same sort of spinning wheels or a very short but steep loss that is quickly erased. These corrections are relatively rare but expected.
    In another thread a post made on 07/27/18 with the following post:

    "Three, I agree with refinery and wish you'd stop talking about your system."

    So do I Norm W.

  12. #25
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    I guess you missed the point. Maybe I was too subtle. I will spell it out a little clearer. If all that matters is generating EV you will double and split for marginal increases in EV. what you have to understand with doubles is for the way things run success rate is important. At a very small gain in EV you win a lot less often than you would if you didn't double but you either win or lose twice as much. As you get further above the index the EV gain is higher and so is the success rate of the double, meaning you win more doubles and loss less doubles. Losing a double contributes slightly more to variance if you have a positive overall EV but no significantly more. Just making the double increases variance. But the lower win rate contributes more to downswings than a higher win rate and a higher win rate contributes more to positive variance than negative variance. Plus the EV gain at the index and sometimes a bit above the index is often minimal. By going for the highest EV and SCORE you will increase negative variance to a higher degree for not much EV and little change in SCORE. If you forego some of the weaker doubles at or slightly above the index and wait for a higher success rate and/or a higher EV you are eliminating more negative variance than positive variance. If you are only taking one card anyway the correlation between wins and losses between doubling and not doubling are 100%. The difference is the amount of the loss or win is doubled. When you might take another card the correlation is broken to some degree. Risk averse doubles and splits use this principle to lower variance when EV is small and success rate is poor to lower variance on volatile plays with bigger bets out enough to allow you to bet more and increase overall EV.

    The same concept can be applied to surrender. If you don't bet more you reduce variance by reducing more negative variance than positive variance. Waiting for a higher increase in EV and a higher success rate, the two go hand in hand, skews the ratio of downswings from losing and upswings from winning in favor of upswings. You can reduce downswings more by selectively being more aggressive than RA indices in terms of waiting to double or split and surrendering more frequently. Or you can increase the correlation of weak doubles to the decision with additional information to make the EV gain quicker after the index is exceeded and eliminate some negative EV doubles you would make otherwise and pick up some positive EV doubles that you have missed. Remember bet size is critical for variance control/ negative variance control. If you have a small bet out not much is affected by making a weak double. With a big bet out you should exercise more patience in making weak doubles and splits or strong doubles and splits with little EV at the index or poorly correlated doubles and splits to your count. The worse the correlation of the playing EoRs to your count tags and if key cards are counted wrong in not at all the more negative EV doubles and splits you are making and the more positive EV doubles and splits you are missing. The certainty of BR growth will thank you for giving up a little EV for higher success rate on big bet doubles and splits and waiting for more EV when the additional EV at the index is small. Making weak plays strong by side counting the improperly accounted for key cards and weighting them appropriately will also help skew variance to being more influenced by positive variance and less influenced by negative variance. This is true for every count. It is not talking about my count other than how results were much more predictably positive and then going for more EV made them more often negative and more severely negative and then went to even more predictably positive than they were to begin with. That was the point.

    I will stop there. There is more that can be done to skew variance to be even more from positive variance and less from negative variance. But that is probably not anything anyone would do so I won't go into it.

    (Remember variance is a sum of squares so positive variance and negative variance looks the same as variance so just lowering variance in general may skew the ratio of positive to negative variance in the wrong direction. What you want to do is use what you know to trade weak EV gain on big bets for skewing variance to be generated more from positive variance and less from negative variance. I think I explained enough this time that most people got it) The total EV you give up depends on frequency of the hand matchup at the count(s) you don't double and the bet size. That will increase the success rate of the doubles and splits on those big bets and reduce the matchups contribution to negative variance more than it reduces its contribution to positive variance.

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