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Thread: Losing your edge trying not to get backed off

  1. #1


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    Losing your edge trying not to get backed off

    Been playing seriously for now around 10 years. In the beginning read all the books, sharpened my skills with flashcards dealing cards from a shoe and doing all the drills on all the software and ran sims to prepare with proper bet spread to beat whatever games I chose to play. Won right away which kept me engaged. I was low green stakes to start off with and was likely overbetting a tad according to the bankroll that I considered to be money that I was willing to lose if things didn't go well. Doubled my bankroll in the first six months of play and over the next six months I had my first losing streak and lost everything that I won. In the next two months I crushed it and never looked back winning around 8000. Over the course of the next year I won around 15000 and the winning continued. From 2008 to 2014 I never once had a losing year. I never played with cover and over time the backoffs continued to mount. By 2014 I quit my job and started travelling ouside of my home territory Detroit where I had burned out nearly every casino in Michigan. I would travel as far west and or south as I could handle in a two to three week trip going home to be with my new wife at the time for a week in between hitting the road again and basically covering the same regions by car and playing as much as I could in a 24 hour period. I had incredible flux in 2014 which was everything I could ask for after quitting my full time x-ray job that I was burnt out from. Earlier in the year my wife and I decided that we were going to give it a go in Vegas. More casinos harder to get burnt out over time and the weather would be better for both of our health conditions. We decided to cash in some 401k money to establish a suitable professional blackjack income and moved in fall of 2014. Partnered up with a guy to do some advanced technique blackjack stuff that I did not share the same skill and knowledge as the other person and looking back we may have been playing games with much slimmer margins of edge than we had originally thought. I likely lost over a third of my entire bankroll and was also doing some team counting stuff on top of solo counting that was getting me databased and 86 left and right. I started to feel like it might be pretty hard to play blackjack at the stakes that I knew it would take to support a family if I started to lose most of the places in a new home town with a ton of casinos. Travelling was something that I was still willing to do but going to Wendover and Pheonix Tuscan regions resulted in even more Backoffs and 86ings. Travelling wasn't working out either. What I had noticed is that after not doing the advanced blackjack techniques at certain places they seemed to be ok with me not using any cover and blasting away for awhile. As time went on I found they were starting to be less tolerant and in the process I started incorporating cover and when the heat still was appearing at times using even more cover and the minute they would move on and not bother with me that should have been my clue to move on and find more places to play and hop on a plane once every other month and go to a different region. One thing I must say is that I have lost my edge trying not to burn out Vegas. You need to play like a lion at this game because the edge you can get is way to small at counting. You give up any of it with any amount of cover it is too much. Travel travel travel. No cover. You get asked to leave say thank you and have a good day. The backoffs are not a detrement they are a badge of honor and proof that if you are not making money in the short run you will make money in the long run. I see people trying to figure out what type of cover to use and sometimes even at low stakes. Only cover anyone should be using in casinos is the kind that won't cost you anything. Anything more than that can seep into your game and you will start to do other things that will cause massive holes that will be very hard to fix.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjackwinner86 View Post
    Been playing seriously for now around 10 years. In the beginning read all the books, sharpened my skills with flashcards dealing cards from a shoe and doing all the drills on all the software and ran sims to prepare with proper bet spread to beat whatever games I chose to play. Won right away which kept me engaged. I was low green stakes to start off with and was likely overbetting a tad according to the bankroll that I considered to be money that I was willing to lose if things didn't go well. Doubled my bankroll in the first six months of play and over the next six months I had my first losing streak and lost everything that I won. In the next two months I crushed it and never looked back winning around 8000. Over the course of the next year I won around 15000 and the winning continued. From 2008 to 2014 I never once had a losing year. I never played with cover and over time the backoffs continued to mount. By 2014 I quit my job and started travelling ouside of my home territory Detroit where I had burned out nearly every casino in Michigan. I would travel as far west and or south as I could handle in a two to three week trip going home to be with my new wife at the time for a week in between hitting the road again and basically covering the same regions by car and playing as much as I could in a 24 hour period. I had incredible flux in 2014 which was everything I could ask for after quitting my full time x-ray job that I was burnt out from. Earlier in the year my wife and I decided that we were going to give it a go in Vegas. More casinos harder to get burnt out over time and the weather would be better for both of our health conditions. We decided to cash in some 401k money to establish a suitable professional blackjack income and moved in fall of 2014. Partnered up with a guy to do some advanced technique blackjack stuff that I did not share the same skill and knowledge as the other person and looking back we may have been playing games with much slimmer margins of edge than we had originally thought. I likely lost over a third of my entire bankroll and was also doing some team counting stuff on top of solo counting that was getting me databased and 86 left and right. I started to feel like it might be pretty hard to play blackjack at the stakes that I knew it would take to support a family if I started to lose most of the places in a new home town with a ton of casinos. Travelling was something that I was still willing to do but going to Wendover and Pheonix Tuscan regions resulted in even more Backoffs and 86ings. Travelling wasn't working out either. What I had noticed is that after not doing the advanced blackjack techniques at certain places they seemed to be ok with me not using any cover and blasting away for awhile. As time went on I found they were starting to be less tolerant and in the process I started incorporating cover and when the heat still was appearing at times using even more cover and the minute they would move on and not bother with me that should have been my clue to move on and find more places to play and hop on a plane once every other month and go to a different region. One thing I must say is that I have lost my edge trying not to burn out Vegas. You need to play like a lion at this game because the edge you can get is way to small at counting. You give up any of it with any amount of cover it is too much. Travel travel travel. No cover. You get asked to leave say thank you and have a good day. The backoffs are not a detrement they are a badge of honor and proof that if you are not making money in the short run you will make money in the long run. I see people trying to figure out what type of cover to use and sometimes even at low stakes. Only cover anyone should be using in casinos is the kind that won't cost you anything. Anything more than that can seep into your game and you will start to do other things that will cause massive holes that will be very hard to fix.
    Not a coincidence you lost a third of your bankroll in this mob ridden city. The games here are completely rigged and they have the gaming commission in their pocket.

    Of course no one should use any cover. Ive talked about this numerous times to the idiots who advocate cover on these forums. The ones advocating cover dont have a real grasp on real world blackjack. If you need cover, youre already doing it all wrong. Short sessions, ratholing, and backcounting and you can play as aggressive as you want. Ill spliy 10s in front of the pit bosses face 4 times and laugh at the same time doing it. If i get backed off ill be right back there within a week doing the same thing over again. These casinos are powerless. Everything is a bluff. If you know anything about the law, you wouldnt fear these piece of shit casinos and brain dead drone pit bosses

  3. #3


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    Cover is about longevity. Heat is inevitable. The extra time that cover can grant you ideally should outweigh its (minimal) cost in exchange for the profit accrued during that extra time.

    OP, how much did you resize your bets by? What was your RoR? Was the BS you used correct for the game played? There's a tonne of factors that are vague here.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by KingZen View Post
    Not a coincidence you lost a third of your bankroll in this mob ridden city. The games here are completely rigged and they have the gaming commission in their pocket.

    Of course no one should use any cover. Ive talked about this numerous times to the idiots who advocate cover on these forums. The ones advocating cover dont have a real grasp on real world blackjack. If you need cover, youre already doing it all wrong. Short sessions, ratholing, and backcounting and you can play as aggressive as you want. Ill spliy 10s in front of the pit bosses face 4 times and laugh at the same time doing it. If i get backed off ill be right back there within a week doing the same thing over again. These casinos are powerless. Everything is a bluff. If you know anything about the law, you wouldnt fear these piece of shit casinos and brain dead drone pit bosses
    I don't get it. From what I have read from you on this forum, you basically lose and lose so what can you tell us? I never split 10's and never spread more than 1-7 in DD games, never more than 1-15 in 6 deck games and I am not losing.

    Addiction combined with an outrageous attitude does not work.

    There are pros here who seem to make a living in Las Vegas with some trAvel who do make high 5 figures while playing short sessions and using some cover.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjackwinner86 View Post
    Been playing seriously for now around 10 years. In the beginning read all the books, sharpened my skills with flashcards dealing cards from a shoe and doing all the drills on all the software and ran sims to prepare with proper bet spread to beat whatever games I chose to play. Won right away which kept me engaged. I was low green stakes to start off with and was likely overbetting a tad according to the bankroll that I considered to be money that I was willing to lose if things didn't go well. Doubled my bankroll in the first six months of play and over the next six months I had my first losing streak and lost everything that I won. In the next two months I crushed it and never looked back winning around 8000. Over the course of the next year I won around 15000 and the winning continued. From 2008 to 2014 I never once had a losing year. I never played with cover and over time the backoffs continued to mount. By 2014 I quit my job and started travelling ouside of my home territory Detroit where I had burned out nearly every casino in Michigan. I would travel as far west and or south as I could handle in a two to three week trip going home to be with my new wife at the time for a week in between hitting the road again and basically covering the same regions by car and playing as much as I could in a 24 hour period. I had incredible flux in 2014 which was everything I could ask for after quitting my full time x-ray job that I was burnt out from. Earlier in the year my wife and I decided that we were going to give it a go in Vegas. More casinos harder to get burnt out over time and the weather would be better for both of our health conditions. We decided to cash in some 401k money to establish a suitable professional blackjack income and moved in fall of 2014. Partnered up with a guy to do some advanced technique blackjack stuff that I did not share the same skill and knowledge as the other person and looking back we may have been playing games with much slimmer margins of edge than we had originally thought. I likely lost over a third of my entire bankroll and was also doing some team counting stuff on top of solo counting that was getting me databased and 86 left and right. I started to feel like it might be pretty hard to play blackjack at the stakes that I knew it would take to support a family if I started to lose most of the places in a new home town with a ton of casinos. Travelling was something that I was still willing to do but going to Wendover and Pheonix Tuscan regions resulted in even more Backoffs and 86ings. Travelling wasn't working out either. What I had noticed is that after not doing the advanced blackjack techniques at certain places they seemed to be ok with me not using any cover and blasting away for awhile. As time went on I found they were starting to be less tolerant and in the process I started incorporating cover and when the heat still was appearing at times using even more cover and the minute they would move on and not bother with me that should have been my clue to move on and find more places to play and hop on a plane once every other month and go to a different region. One thing I must say is that I have lost my edge trying not to burn out Vegas. You need to play like a lion at this game because the edge you can get is way to small at counting. You give up any of it with any amount of cover it is too much. Travel travel travel. No cover. You get asked to leave say thank you and have a good day. The backoffs are not a detrement they are a badge of honor and proof that if you are not making money in the short run you will make money in the long run. I see people trying to figure out what type of cover to use and sometimes even at low stakes. Only cover anyone should be using in casinos is the kind that won't cost you anything. Anything more than that can seep into your game and you will start to do other things that will cause massive holes that will be very hard to fix.
    NP;DR (no paragraphs;didn't read)

  6. #6


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    There is no EV if you can not play.

    Value effective cover is necessary to continue long term.

    Using travel as an alternative to cover is a net negative EV. It ain't free.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  7. #7


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    Have enter key, will travel.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by KingZen View Post
    Not a coincidence you lost a third of your bankroll in this mob ridden city. The games here are completely rigged and they have the gaming commission in their pocket.

    Of course no one should use any cover. Ive talked about this numerous times to the idiots who advocate cover on these forums. The ones advocating cover dont have a real grasp on real world blackjack. If you need cover, youre already doing it all wrong. Short sessions, ratholing, and backcounting and you can play as aggressive as you want. Ill spliy 10s in front of the pit bosses face 4 times and laugh at the same time doing it. If i get backed off ill be right back there within a week doing the same thing over again. These casinos are powerless. Everything is a bluff. If you know anything about the law, you wouldnt fear these piece of shit casinos and brain dead drone pit bosses
    I'm starting to think your posts are some kind of performance art piece or an attempt to smear the player who once had a similar username (who I did not know at all and cannot speak to whether your attitude aligns with previously). I mean, it's starting to look like you're legit trolling, man. :-P

  9. #9


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    "Blackbelt in Blackjack" has a real good section on inexpensive cover, including "opposition betting" and a list of obviously wrong plays that make you look dumb but actually don't affect EV too much, such as always standing on 16 v. 10, taking "even money" on naturals, etc.

    My favorite suggestion has no effect at all on EV, though it does add to the flux: when neither you nor the house has a significant edge, bet at random, or in some sort of typical gambler's progression or other silly scheme. Anyone counting and observing you will note that you vary your bet at random, regardless of the count, and quit watching. Throw in a loud call for "even money" for good measure and I think you can maintain almost all your edge while getting the pit off your case.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    "Blackbelt in Blackjack" has a real good section on inexpensive cover, including "opposition betting" and a list of obviously wrong plays that make you look dumb but actually don't affect EV too much, such as always standing on 16 v. 10, taking "even money" on naturals, etc.
    One note: As I understand it taking (or not taking) even money on naturals against a dealer ace (more specifically, making or not making an insurance bet) is one of the most important index plays there is. Certainly if you are going to default to one or the other and "always" do something, _don't_ take even money. Basic strategy says to not take insurance for good reason.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    I think KingZen was arguing that you can always come back. Bouncing from place to place to kill time between back-offs allows you to always have a store to play at. Of course, eventually things may come to an end at a particular store. But the weeks and months it takes all the while having another 500+ store to choose from makes it a moot point in some player''s opinions.......
    Oh, I can agree that one has 800+ stores to choose from, but the cost benefit analysis of that versus effective cover plays will not, IMHO, be positive.

    We must then choose to disagree.......
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesonDetroit View Post
    One note: As I understand it taking (or not taking) even money on naturals against a dealer ace (more specifically, making or not making an insurance bet) is one of the most important index plays there is. Certainly if you are going to default to one or the other and "always" do something, _don't_ take even money. Basic strategy says to not take insurance for good reason.
    That's what I thought, too, but I believe the rationale goes that the "even money" option only occurs in 1/13 of your naturals and only every 275 hands overall, so while it may cost EV, it doesn't happen often. When the count is lower than the insurance index (+3 in hi-lo), "even money" will cost EV, but you're insuring a relatively low bet. When you have a big bet out and insure a natural, it's the right thing to do anyway.

    Since ploppies and gamblers almost never take insurance, but almost always take "even money" on a natural, it makes you look like a ploppy or gambler, and therefore you get a lot of cover for a little EV.

    A suggestion from BBIBJ is to do this especially if you're playing two hands: take even money on a natural but don't insure the other hand - looks like a total gambler move, since that is never the correct play no matter the count and since many gamblers would play exactly that way.
    Last edited by Optimus Prime; 07-18-2018 at 12:23 PM.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    That's what I thought, too, but I believe the rationale goes that the "even money" option only occurs in 1/13 of your naturals and only every 275 hands overall, so while it may cost EV, it doesn't happen often. When the count is lower than the insurance index (+3 in hi-lo), "even money" will cost EV, but you're insuring a relatively low bet. When you have a big bet out and insure a natural, it's the right thing to do anyway.

    Since ploppies and gamblers almost never take insurance, but almost always take "even money" on a natural, it makes you look like a ploppy or gambler, and therefore you get a lot of cover for a little EV.

    A suggestion from BBIBJ is to do this especially if you're playing two hands: take even money on a natural but don't insure the other hand - looks like a total gambler move, since that is never the correct play no matter the count and since many gamblers would play exactly that way.
    Oh, interesting! Curious at what bet spread a "always even money" rule gets a net positive EV as an insurance play rule (though obviously lower than using the index). I hadn't thought about the fact that the biggest bets would be the ones where it would be the right choice, so just a smaller expense at the lower ones for cover. If anyone has the math lying around, let me know; I might just run some sims this evening.

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