How to bet this lottery game ?

[Three]

Well that makes absolutely no sense. The jackpot is 1 million and if two people win they pay out $20K and $20.4K?

[James989]

Well that makes absolutely no sense. The jackpot is 1 million and if two people win they pay out $20K and $20.4K?

If only 1 winner(advantage player who only bet $0.0408 per pair of 4digit number), payout = $20400

if 2 winners, 1st winner will get = $20000 and 2nd winner will get = $980000

Meaning additional winner (in same draw) will only have minimum impact to advantage player who bet "small" !

[Three]

Meaning additional winner (in same draw) will only have minimum impact to advantage player who bet "small" !

You are assuming additional winners bought the cheap ticket. In analysis you can't make that assumption.

[James989]

You are assuming additional winners bought the cheap ticket. In analysis you can't make that assumption.

No, I am assuming additional winners just bet $2 for a ticket.

Additional winner( bet $2 for a ticket) will only have minimum impact to advantage player(bet $0.0408 for a ticket).

[Three]

So you think the cheap ticket is the play and $20K return is the big payoff?

[James989]

So you think the cheap ticket is the play and $20K return is the big payoff?

$20K return is almost the 98% of the $20.4k( FULL PAYOFF for a ticket with cost $0.0408 ). Therefore, with cheap ticket we are not so worry about the second winner . . .

[Three]

So the cheap ticket is a flat $20K regardless of how many split the jackpot?

[Reign Man]

How many tickets can you buy for each drawing?

But suppose you find a way to buy ALL million tickets

They're pointing out this is how MIT and other advantage play teams have beaten lotteries in the past -- buying thousands of tickets for the same draw. This tactic will not work for this game. A 16% EV is unusual however...

A 1.6+ billion n0 says you are gambling no matter what the edge analysis is.

Var = 43,000,000(yes, 43 million !).

...you'd have to buy more tickets than the jackpot is worth.

The main problem for this game is other players may hit jackpot IN SAME DRAWING AND SHARE THE JACKPOT PRIZE

You'd be more likely to split a jackpot with repetitive numbers (1111) or sequential (1234), since other people will play these. Split jackpots are more likely to happen on the biggest jackpots since more people will play those.

I don't think there's a right answer

My advice would be to not bet at all.

Some of our most senior members are advising you there's a safer way to invest your bankroll.

[James989]

So the cheap ticket is a flat $20K regardless of how many split the jackpot?

if one winner(1 cheap ticket), then the cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/2= $20400.


if two winners(1 cheap ticket, one $2 tickets), then the cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/(0.0408+2)= $20000(98% OF $20400).


if three winners(1 cheap ticket, two other $2 tickets), then the cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/(0.0408+2+2)= $10101(49% OF $20400).


If four winners....... cheap ticket will win = 0.0408*1000000/(0.0408+2+2+2)=$6757(33% OF $20400)

...
...
.
.
If there are two winners the prize is only reduce by 2%( from $20400 to $20000). If there are 3 or more winners, the prize amount won will reduce drastically, but I THINK the probability for 3 or more jackpot winners in a draw is extremely low.

[Bushie]

Uh, which country do you live in where there is no tax on gambling winnings?

It's not in Australia.

[Meistro123]

I don't know where he lives, but there are countries with no tax on lottery winnings. Canada is among them.

The position of the CRA is that if you have a long term expectation of profit, as OP seems to think is the case, then gambling winnings are taxable.

[JamesonDetroit]

http://www.todayifoundout.com/index....g-the-lottery/

Don

Thank you! That's awesome it took so long for the government to figure it out.

I wonder how pissed the rest of the team was that Voltaire unintentionally ended up getting the play found out. Reminds me of another story I read recently, can't remember where though, or the details...

[Gronbog]

The position of the CRA is that if you have a long term expectation of profit, as OP seems to think is the case, then gambling winnings are taxable.

Agreed. That's why I was careful to only refer to the lottery. It is my understanding that lotteries are specifically exempt from taxation, as the winnings are classified as a windfall.