How to bet this lottery game ?

**ummagumma** · 07-26-2018, 02:38 PM

Originally Posted by Gronbog

I don't know where he lives, but there are countries with no tax on lottery winnings. Canada is among them.

And the UK

**James989** · 07-26-2018, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by drunk

please explain how you can determine that or even run a sim since you can't know how many tickets (chances) will be sold. thanks.

Jackpot probability = 6.0006 x 10^-8 = 0.000000060006

**Sonny** · 07-26-2018, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by James989

Below is my combination analysis results, the ev= +16.0026%, which is NOT close to your +12.282%, am I missing something ?

I was using $430k for the mini jackpot but you used $492k. Your probabilities are correct.

-Sonny-

**JamesonDetroit** · 07-27-2018, 07:06 AM

Originally Posted by ummagumma

And the UK

Damn, the US sucks! :-P (Kidding; I like my country, in general.)

Then again, playing the lottery in the US is a bad bet to begin with.

**Three** · 07-27-2018, 07:35 AM

Look at the DI and the n-zero and you will see this is not a play. A 1.6+ billion n0 says you are gambling no matter what the edge analysis is.

**DSchles** · 07-27-2018, 08:06 AM

Originally Posted by Three

Look at the DI and the n-zero and you will see this is not a play. A 1.6+ billion n0 says you are gambling no matter what the edge analysis is.

There's a subtlety here, and there are legendary stories of beating the lottery in Massachusetts and other places. Suppose you put the numbers from 1 to one million in a hat (big hat! :-)) and charge a dollar for a ticket. If you win, the prize is $2 million. You have a 100% edge, but, as you mention, who cares? You're going to lose your dollar, and the 100% edge is immaterial.

But suppose you find a way to buy ALL million tickets and spend $1 million in the process. NOW, are you going to play?! So, don't be too quick to dismiss this. You have to understand what he's trying to do.

Don

**JamesonDetroit** · 07-27-2018, 08:43 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

There's a subtlety here, and there are legendary stories of beating the lottery in Massachusetts and other places. Suppose you put the numbers from 1 to one million in a hat (big hat! :-)) and charge a dollar for a ticket. If you win, the prize is $2 million. You have a 100% edge, but, as you mention, who cares? You're going to lose your dollar, and the 100% edge is immaterial.

But suppose you find a way to buy ALL million tickets and spend $1 million in the process. NOW, are you going to play?! So, don't be too quick to dismiss this. You have to understand what he's trying to do.

Don

Didn't Voltaire beat the French Lottery back in the day with the help of some investors? I can't recall if that was the method employed, or if it was something else... Anyone have details by any chance?

**DSchles** · 07-27-2018, 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by JamesonDetroit

Didn't Voltaire beat the French Lottery back in the day with the help of some investors? I can't recall if that was the method employed, or if it was something else... Anyone have details by any chance?

http://www.todayifoundout.com/index....g-the-lottery/

Don

**James989** · 07-27-2018, 04:40 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

There's a subtlety here, and there are legendary stories of beating the lottery in Massachusetts and other places. Suppose you put the numbers from 1 to one million in a hat (big hat! :-)) and charge a dollar for a ticket. If you win, the prize is $2 million. You have a 100% edge, but, as you mention, who cares? You're going to lose your dollar, and the 100% edge is immaterial.

But suppose you find a way to buy ALL million tickets and spend $1 million in the process. NOW, are you going to play?! So, don't be too quick to dismiss this. You have to understand what he's trying to do.

Don

So to buy or not to buy tickets under such scenario ? Advice needed. I can form a 20 members team(2 million bankroll) if necessary.

**DSchles** · 07-27-2018, 09:29 PM

Originally Posted by James989

So to buy or not to buy tickets under such scenario ? Advice needed. I can form a 20 members team(2 million bankroll) if necessary.

I don't think there's a right answer. The gamble, assuming you could buy all the tickets, is multiple winners, which is utterly out of your control. You might have an edge when calculating yourself as the sole winner, but what happens if you have to split the jackpot multiple ways?

Don

**James989** · 07-28-2018, 06:42 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

I don't think there's a right answer. The gamble, assuming you could buy all the tickets, is multiple winners, which is utterly out of your control. You might have an edge when calculating yourself as the sole winner, but what happens if you have to split the jackpot multiple ways?

Don

The actual rules stated that :-

1) if there are two(2) winners for mega Jackpot, each winner still can get 98% of TOTAL MEGA JACKPOT PRIZE, meaning if mega jackpot is 1 million, each winner will get 980k

2) if there are three(3) winners for mega Jackpot, each winner still can get 49% of TOTAL MEGA JACKPOT PRIZE, meaning if mega jackpot is 1 million, each winner will get 490k

3) if there are four(4) winners for mega Jackpot, each winner still can get 33% of TOTAL MEGA JACKPOT PRIZE, meaning if mega jackpot is 1 million, each winner will get 330k

The above rules apply to MINI JACKPOT too.

Does it help ? LOL

**DSchles** · 07-28-2018, 08:53 AM

Originally Posted by James989

The actual rules stated that :-

1) if there are two(2) winners for mega Jackpot, each winner still can get 98% of TOTAL MEGA JACKPOT PRIZE, meaning if mega jackpot is 1 million, each winner will get 980k

2) if there are three(3) winners for mega Jackpot, each winner still can get 49% of TOTAL MEGA JACKPOT PRIZE, meaning if mega jackpot is 1 million, each winner will get 490k

3) if there are four(4) winners for mega Jackpot, each winner still can get 33% of TOTAL MEGA JACKPOT PRIZE, meaning if mega jackpot is 1 million, each winner will get 330k

The above rules apply to MINI JACKPOT too.

Does it help ? LOL

Not only doesn't it help, it doesn't make the least bit of sense. In the first case (two winners), they're going to pay out almost twice what they planned to? In the second case, 47% more, and in the third case, 33% more? What sense does that make?

Don

**James989** · 07-28-2018, 09:05 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Not only doesn't it help, it doesn't make the least bit of sense. In the first case (two winners), they're going to pay out almost twice what they planned to? In the second case, 47% more, and in the third case, 33% more? What sense does that make?

Don

Please ignore my previous post #25, here is the way how to get 98% of the "jackpot prize" if there are 2 winners :-
(Assumed the jackpot prize is 1 million.)

There are special way to buy the ticket with lower price for each pair, the betting system is called M50, advantage player can randomly choose fifty 4digit numbers, total pair of 4digit numbers = 50C2= 1225, and it cost only $50, so the cost of each pair = 50/1225 = $0.0408

A) 1 winner(Advantage player)
If Only Advantage player strike the jackpot, since his bet for each pair is $0.0408, total amount he won = 1 million x 0.0408/2 = $20400. Please note that the FULL jackpot prize( 1 million) only can be won if you bet $2 per pair.

B) 2 winners
1) First winner(advantage player), the cost of each pair remain = 50/1225 = $0.0408
2) Second lucky winner just use normal betting method, i.e bet $2 for a pair of 4 digit numbers.
Both winner share the jackpot base on ratio 0.0408 : 2 (or equivalent to 1 : 49), the advantage player won 1000000/50 = $20000

So, when there are 2 winners, Advantage player still get $20000, equivalent to 98% of $20400 ! Meaning the second lucky player only "took" away $400 from the advantage player !

Hope explain well.