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Thread: How to bet this lottery game ?

  1. #1


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    How to bet this lottery game ?

    A lottery game, bet size $2, Mega jackpot value = $26 million, mini jackpot value = $430k and other 3rd($166), 4th($66), 5th($26)prizes

    Bet size $2 will NOT return either you hit the jackpot or not. My calculations(and simulations) show that the player edge = + 16%, Var = 43,000,000(yes, 43 million !).

    Bankroll is $500k, how to bet under such scenario ?

  2. #2


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    Can the jackpot be won multiple times? Or does the value decrease after it is won once?

    Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesonDetroit View Post
    Can the jackpot be won multiple times? Or does the value decrease after it is won once?

    Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk
    Jackpot cannot be won multiple times and the jackpot value decrease(for next draw) after someone hit it on the draw day. If two or more people hit the jackpot in a same draw, the jackpot will be share equally.



    Here is how the jackpot to be drawn :-


    1) Player choose two 4 digits numbers from 0000, 0001, 0002 . . . 9998, 9999, the cost is $2 .
    2) On the draw day, three 4 digits numbers will be randomly picked(from 0000 and 9999) and put under category A, then ten 4 digits numbers will be picked from the remaining numbers and put under category B, lastly ten 4 digits numbers will be picked from the remaining numbers and put under category C.
    3) To win the jackpot :-


    i)If your two 4 digits numbers match either two numbers in category A, you win the mega jackpot.

    ii)If one of your 4 digits number match one of the numbers in category A, and your other number match one of the number in category B, you win the mini jackpot.

    iii)If one of your 4 digits number match one of the numbers in category A, and your other number MATCH one number in category C, your net win $194(168 + 28 -2).

    iv)If one of your 4 digits number match one of the numbers in category A, and your other number NOT MATCH any numbers in category B and NOT MATCH any numbers in category C, your net win $166( 168-2).

    v)If both of your 4 digits numbers match two of the numbers in category B, your net win $134(68+68 -2).

    vi)If one of your 4 digits number match one of the numbers in category B, and your other number MATCH one number in category C , your net win $94(68+28 -2).

    vii)If one of your 4 digits number match one of the numbers in category B, and your other number NOT MATCH any number in category C , your net win $66( 68-2).

    viii)If both of your 4 digits numbers match two of the numbers in category C, your net win $54( 28 + 28 -2).

    ix)If ONLY one of your 4 digits number match one of the numbers in category C, your net win $26( 28-2).

    x) Other than above, loss $2

    Hope explain well.
    Last edited by James989; 07-19-2018 at 08:20 AM.

  4. #4
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    What happens when you meet more than one winning criterion? Like if you meet condition (iii) or condition (iv), and condition (v).

  5. #5


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    Hi Three, I have edited my previous post, please read it again, hope I explain it well.

    I am simulating 10 billion rounds of the this lottery game . . . .

    Could you please help me to do the combinations analysis so that I can compare it with my simulation results ?

    Current Mega jackpot value = $26,200,000, mini jackpot value = $492,000. Preliminary simulation results(1 billion rounds) shown that player ev is about + 16% !
    Last edited by James989; 07-19-2018 at 07:50 AM.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    One of the biggest questions: How many tickets can you buy for each drawing? Specifically, (a) how many are you allowed to buy and (b) how many are realistically possible based on the time it takes to select the numbers and purchase the tickets?

    If there are serious limitations on the number of tickets you can acquire, everything other question becomes moot.

    -Sonny-

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
    One of the biggest questions: How many tickets can you buy for each drawing? Specifically, (a) how many are you allowed to buy and (b) how many are realistically possible based on the time it takes to select the numbers and purchase the tickets?

    If there are serious limitations on the number of tickets you can acquire, everything other question becomes moot.

    -Sonny-
    Total set of number(two 4 digits numbers) = 10000 C 2 = 49,995,000

    You can buy tickets online, you can buy as many as you want !

    For example, you choose 2 numbers, 1234 and 5678, you can buy ALL possible combinations by select the option ALL PERMUTATION, so in this case, total combinations = 4P4 x 4P4 = 576, and you have to pay 576 x 2 = $1152 ! ALL can be done online in few seconds !

    The main problem for this game is other players may hit jackpot IN SAME DRAWING AND SHARE THE JACKPOT PRIZE !

    Below is my simulation results

    Jackpot.jpg
    Last edited by James989; 07-19-2018 at 04:12 PM.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    Your simulation results are close, but the actual edge is 12.282% per bet, or about 6.14% per dollar. That ignores the fact that you may have to split the jackpot. There may also be tax liabilities to consider. My advice would be to not bet at all.

    -Sonny-

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
    Your simulation results are close, but the actual edge is 12.282% per bet, or about 6.14% per dollar. That ignores the fact that you may have to split the jackpot. There may also be tax liabilities to consider. My advice would be to not bet at all.

    -Sonny-
    It is not taxable and my simulations show that probability of split jackpot is extremely low.

    Below is my combination analysis results, the ev= +16.0026%, which is NOT close to your +12.282%, am I missing something ?CBA.jpg
    Last edited by James989; 07-26-2018 at 12:32 AM.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by James989 View Post
    It is not taxable
    Uh, which country do you live in where there is no tax on gambling winnings?

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesonDetroit View Post
    Uh, which country do you live in where there is no tax on gambling winnings?
    I don't know where he lives, but there are countries with no tax on lottery winnings. Canada is among them.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I don't know where he lives, but there are countries with no tax on lottery winnings. Canada is among them.
    Oh wow; I guess that makes sense for state-run lotteries if they're skimming off the top at time of sale or some such.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesonDetroit View Post
    Uh, which country do you live in where there is no tax on gambling winnings?
    I am from Asia, the lottery ticket already included government tax.

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