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Thread: Optimal betting, heat and cover

  1. #1


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    Optimal betting, heat and cover

    At first, I thought I would add this to the "Perceived Spread" thread but decided to start one. Maybe a few will advise and the rest will try a bit harder to stay off this thread.

    So far, I have mostly relied on an "act" to try to get away with optimal betting but often its not enough. I am looking for ways to conceal card counting with bet amounts. For example, you walk in to a casino, the act (drunk or old sorry bettor etc.) does not seem to have an effect on the pit guy who then checks in often or watches your play. In some casinos, he walks over to the monitor and seems to be watching the table via technology. In any case, how can one come close to optimal betting without making it too obvious?

    I have sometimes started with double the minimal bet and then dropped it to minimum if the count drops. The tougher issue is when count is rising. For example, TC 2 calls for a $100 bet, but do I vary the bet at that count, maybe $75 or $125. After all the pit is watching. The problem sometimes happens when you sit down and the count remains neutral or negative the entire shoe and you play a minimum bet ($25) and the next one, the count keeps going up, calling for $100+ bets to max bet.

    Earlier in my short career, I used to raise bets lock step with the count. I am still trying to figure out how that can be varied. Advice?

  2. #2
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    If they are looking at you from afar, mixing colors in your chip stack by keeping the stack close to even height might fool them for a while. $20 in red>$40 = 1 green, 3red>$60 = 2 green, 2 red>$80 = 3 green, 1 red etc.

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    does your cover buy you more than the cost , if not what is the point? cover is not useless but overrated imo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    does your cover buy you more than the cost , if not what is the point? cover is not useless but overrated imo.
    Yes, but a lot of the APs that say cover is overrated have also burnt down their local stores due to this type of thinking so they have to drive a lot further to get a good game. There are some of us that don’t want this to happens. We like playing at our local stores.

    I think this is an excellent question. I do pretty much what Zee is doing and I’ve read is common practice for APs. About every 3 or 4 shoes I start with double the min bet. Since I have pretty much an unlimited bankroll for my game, I try to get as much on the table as looks normal when they count is above 2. My spread is $10 to $90 most the time. I try to stay under “check play” at my local casinos.

    Now for casinos I don’t frequent much, I pretty much throw cover out the window and bet with the count.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    Yes, but a lot of the APs that say cover is overrated have also burnt down their local stores due to this type of thinking so they have to drive a lot further to get a good game. There are some of us that don’t want this to happens. We like playing at our local stores.

    I think this is an excellent question. I do pretty much what Zee is doing and I’ve read is common practice for APs. About every 3 or 4 shoes I start with double the min bet. Since I have pretty much an unlimited bankroll for my game, I try to get as much on the table as looks normal when they count is above 2. My spread is $10 to $90 most the time. I try to stay under “check play” at my local casinos.

    Now for casinos I don’t frequent much, I pretty much throw cover out the window and bet with the count.
    You and everyone else doesn't seem to get it: I'll get at least two shoes in before anyone can say shit.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    You and everyone else doesn't seem to get it: I'll get at least two shoes in before anyone can say shit.
    Then what do you do? Get in a car and drive to another caisno? What if don’t want to spend the day hit and running? What if you want to spend the day at one casino? I think this is what Zee is referring to. How do you bet to camouflage what you’re doing? I actually liked drunk’s idea of going to the craps table from time to time. I know this isn’t nothing new but I liked the way he outlined it. I’ll be trying it in the future.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    ***************************




    after you have completed a shoe go over to the craps table and make a lot of noise like you really love craps.
    Make a $100 pass line ONLY bet. with any luck it will take a long time for the bet to resolve.
    Go back to BJ after one bet resolves.
    After another shoe is over do the same thing doing it a total of 3 times.
    the 3 bets will only cost you $4.23 total in expected dollar loss.
    IMO it is worth it if it buys you cover.
    you could probably make up the loss easily by reducing your expenses in a variety of ways.
    Can I ask why you choose the pass line, instead of the don't pass?

    The don't pass has a slightly (very slight) lower house edge, but is more likely to lose on the come-out (first roll). I guess if you're trying to extend your time at the craps table, the pass line is better.

    But if you're trying to maximize time at the table, wouldn't you do 4 bets of $25? Or 2 of $50, etc?

    I'm definitely not trying to call you out or anything like that, just trying to connect the dot that I'm missing.

    Thanks.

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    Unfortunately, Drunk's idea is a good one but ultimately will provide no value. I don't have my copy of Beyond Counting handy, so to paraphrase Grosjean: "if a cover bet is made and the pit boss doesn't see it, does it make a sound?"

    Sorry to say but your time at the craps table is just time spent gambling.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    "if a cover bet is made and the pit boss doesn't see it, does it make a sound?"
    When you leave the blackjack table you announce you are going to the craps table so the pit boss can hear it. The casinos I play at are so small the craps table is in the same pit as the blackjack tables and almost always there is only one pit open.

  10. #10
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    nighterfighter,

    As a retired BJ Pro I do shoot craps for fine comps at my local casino;
    and am showing solid profits for this year.

    I do play the thoroughbreds daily through an internet betting account.
    Check Out NYRABETS.com for an easy $200 A.P. move. You deposit $200
    and when you have bet that much or more they deposit $200 in your
    Account. This A.P. move was still available for NEW accounts, at least it was
    as of this last weekend. Then you just bet it all on a "prohibitive" favorite to
    show. Your chances of winning such a bet is approximately 98% (when limited
    to small fields of 6 or less horses) and your $200 bet becomes $210 or $220.
    The next day they deposit $200 into your account. Your $200 has become $420.
    Now, (ethics aside), you rinse and repeat using friends/relatives computers or mobile
    devices. These are for "new accounts only" ... one to a customer. (clears throat)

    This has been a great A.P. move for me, and anyone anywhere can do it without
    any knowledge of thoroughbreds and wagering. You will be getting far better than
    'even money' on a bet that is about 22 (or 23) to 1 in your favor.

    For those who are computer savvy this is a real snap. Using a good VPN is easy.

    I mostly just (automatically every 10 minutes) randomize my MAC address to keep

    my I.S.P. from knowing my business. "Tor" Browsers aside, this is a simple thing to do.


    Money growing on trees. A delicious delight for you all.


    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 07-17-2018 at 09:03 AM.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    Sorry to say but your time at the craps table is just time spent gambling.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    Then what do you do? Get in a car and drive to another casino? What if don’t want to spend the day hit and running? What if you want to spend the day at one casino? I think this is what Zee is referring to. How do you bet to camouflage what you’re doing? I actually liked drunk’s idea of going to the craps table from time to time. I know this isn’t nothing new but I liked the way he outlined it. I’ll be trying it in the future.
    The O.P subject is lingering in my mind last couple months and I am almost post similar idea. I should add that beside crap's pass or don't pass line bet you could play some Paigow poker or banker bet of mini Baccarat. Doing bets on other games seems waste of time but you have to "looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck". Here we try to balance the EV and longevity, it is no small job. No idea should dismissed out right but should be carefully evaluated base on each individual circumstanced.
    Last edited by cc12b; 07-17-2018 at 08:34 AM.

  12. #12
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    ZeeBabar,


    No-one is ever surprised by your restating your questions and statements.

    If you bet "lock-step with the count" as you stated below, you are a common

    amateur BJ player. We all know that. Why are you boring the good folks here?


  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    Why are you boring the good folks here?
    Perhaps it makes me a bad folk, but I am not bored by almost any of the questions here, and the ones that I do find boring I ignore. I hope people continue to post questions they fear will bore the good folks in the interest of keeping the forums active and for the benefit of those who are not so easily bored.

    Come to think, even if I were bored by 95% of the questions asked I would encourage people to keep posting. The 5% I don't find boring would be worth it, as it is so easy for me to ignore the other ones.

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