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Thread: Optimal betting, heat and cover

  1. #14
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    Passline bets are resolved more frequently than don't pass bets. 1 out of 36 baseline bets are a push for the don't pass bets. The rest are all resolved on the same roll with opposite results.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    As a retired BJ Pro I do shoot craps for fine comps at my local casino;
    and am showing solid profits for this year.
    What is the relevance of the part after the semicolon?

    If you want to play -EV games and gamble, so be it. Please don't try to rationalize by saying you're winning.

  3. #16


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    ZeeBabar,


    No-one is ever surprised by your restating your questions and statements.

    If you bet "lock-step with the count" as you stated below, you are a common

    amateur BJ player. We all know that. Why are you boring the good folks here?

    From the responses, do you see folks being bored. You jaded pros do not need to come to my threads. Most of us come here to learn or share experiences and then there are the full time pros who already know all about BJ yet they come here conning themselves into thinking gthey are here for newbies to give advice and mentor. fact is that you are here on this forum motsly to get your hostilities out.

    While some may have learned some stuff about BJ, the biggest service that all of you do is to show the rest of us part timers and newbies the side effects of being a full time pro. When we see pointless posts like yours or from others boasting about their wins, about their basketball or hunting prowess or the power of the count they use (but never care to share) with all the bins and such, we know what being full time leads to.

  4. #17


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    We do not need hostile words from both sides. Please just focus on the issue: ev vs heat, the books and forums have many ideas/examples so please share your opinions on those and of your own. Some say camouflage is a waste or overblown but other say it worth the cost. Where is middle ground? No such thing as one size fits all as difference games' condition and personality/skill of player make it hard for an agreement. We can agree on disagree but words fight is not to solve problem we all face at every time we sit at bj tables.
    Good cards to all.

  5. #18


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    does your cover buy you more than the cost , if not what is the point? cover is not useless but overrated imo.
    An interesting comment.

    When determining when to use a cover play at some cost we must compare it to the value of, not just the EV lost due to the inferior play, but also the EV gained by protecting my longevity and being able to play more.

    When contrasted to play like a machine and blow the game up we learn that their is no EV if we can't play.

    So does the cover buy you more than the cost, yes if you know what you are doing.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  6. #19


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    A few thoughts:

    Generally, I am not a beleiver in cover. I don't beleive cover plays, intentionally making a sub-optimal play attempting to 'trick' pit/surveillance buys very much. In this day and age it is pretty hard to trick, since often times you are trying to 'trick' technology. Everything you attempt has a cost, and those costs add up quickly. It doesn't take much before you have given away the razor slim advantage that card counters play to.

    A couple things that you should remember:

    1.) Any kind of oral part of an 'act' or attempt to mislead is lost on surveillance. Now that said, I still make little comments here and there. An example would be when I am jumping tables away from a negative count, I might say "oh you are killing me" (if I am losing), or maybe look towards the next table and exclaim "Oh I won big with that dealer last week" as you jump. I also still throw out some comments when making plays, even though I know it is lost on surveillance.

    2.) making sub-optimal plays as cover is generally a waste of time and throwing away money in my opinion. Most pit folks don't even know the correct plays at different advantages. Only about half even know some form of know basic strategy. The exception would be surrender, 16 vs 10 and splitting 10's. Most pit folks know that card counters play these hands differently at different times. So my solution is to play them the same at all times. Counter's basic strategy allows you to do this. And you are making the optimal play anytime your bigger bets are out, so the cost is minimal. There IS A COST, but worth it IMO.

    3.) spread is really easy pickings for pit/surveillance. Most card counters are like machines with minimum wager and raising bets. Minimum wager play in particular is just a huge give-away especially retreating back to minimum wager at the start of a new shoe. Last week I mistakenly used the term opposition wagering which peaked the interest of a couple people. That is not really what I do. Although opposition wagering can be effective, the cost is pretty significant. But there is something you can do that is pretty effective that, while still has a cost is less than you think. It is something I don't often mention, because I don't want everyone doing it, and I probably shouldn't do so now, but I will. Spread both ways.

    That means don't start your initial wager or when you retreat back after a larger wager with minimum bet. 2 or even 3 times you minimum bet works nicely. You can then drop back if the count goes negative or even stays in the zero range after a couple rounds, but if the count goes positive, and you increase, your spread will look much less. Basically pit/surveillance has to see you spread both ways to see your full spread and probably would have to be actively evaluating you to put it together.

    These two concepts, counter's basic strategy and spreading both ways, while they have a cost, the benefit outweighs the cost IMO. Couple that with short sessions, and not showing too much info at any one sitting and you can significantly increase longevity. BUT, with advances in technology, it continues to become more difficult everyday.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
    In this day and age it is pretty hard to trick, since often times you are trying to 'trick' technology.
    It's easier to trick technology

  8. #21


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    In a lot of places, technology or surveillance is initiated by the pit and their suspicions, especially in casinos away from Las Vegas and cover such as acts or an occasional sub optimal play works. In places where you are a regular, they know you and you intend to visit often, a play such as doubling for less or not doubling a 9/2 or others, a pit can be convinced that you are a lousy player and that cover can last a long long time. If a pit guy is hawking the table and you reduce your bet or take a break on a positive deck with a round or two remaining, you have convinced him/her that you are not a counter because no card counter walks away on positive decks.

    Sometimes you have to establish to the pit that you are at most a decent BS guy. The key to getting a long rope or playing rated is to convince the pit and reinforce it from time to time that you are a "hunch" guy or believe in streaks or such. At one casino, I play the Red deck shoe differently from the "blue" deck shoe. On one, I play just one hand, on the other, I start with two hands and I switch back and forth, between one and two hand in random, count unrelated patterns.

    There are no absolutes. Some of us are and look so anonymous that the pit/dealer does not remember us from one visit to the next and then there are others who are such that even after months, they remember us. If they remember us as a poor player or if you can remind them that you are one by doing something stupid when a minimum bet is out, it pays off.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    It's easier to trick technology
    I would request that you be a little more specific.

    The kind of thing I am talking about is technology, computer software used in evaluations. It isn't a person counting down that you can trick with varying bet amounts. The computer program will come up with an average amount bet at different advantages, and it becomes pretty hard to hide that you are betting more at advantage than at disadvantage.

    Then there is facial recognition. Yeah, the first round used by casinos, were not at the same level as government, and could be "tricked" somewhat, but as time goes on, it is getting better. Still boils down to the people using the technology, but with experience, they should improve too. Advancements in technology is just not a battle we will in in the long run.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
    I would request that you be a little more specific.

    The kind of thing I am talking about is technology, computer software used in evaluations. It isn't a person counting down that you can trick with varying bet amounts. The computer program will come up with an average amount bet at different advantages, and it becomes pretty hard to hide that you are betting more at advantage than at disadvantage.

    Then there is facial recognition. Yeah, the first round used by casinos, were not at the same level as government, and could be "tricked" somewhat, but as time goes on, it is getting better. Still boils down to the people using the technology, but with experience, they should improve too. Advancements in technology is just not a battle we will in in the long run.
    I agree. Its probably the cost of the technology that is saving card counters. In places where I play, where 90% are locals and an occasional card counter might drop n, casino management seems to have decided its cheaper to train and let the pit handle the initial job of spotting the counter followed by counter measures. Las Vegas is simply a different animal. At the Egyptian place, within 15 minutes, even in minor disguise (toupee, mustache and eyeglasses) the pit came and addressed me by name, asked that I play other games.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
    I would request that you be a little more specific.
    Sorry, not on a public forum. I recall bigplayer posting about this at some point. I don't recall on which forum.

    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
    Then there is facial recognition.
    It's better than it used to be, but is also "beatable."

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
    I don't believe cover plays, intentionally making a sub-optimal play attempting to 'trick' pit/surveillance buys very much.
    Any cover play has cost, how much you willing to pay is up to each individual base on game/casino condition and his/her skill. No one size fits all. Thanks for sharing your though. I think lower EV is better than no EV if you face with counter measures.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman View Post
    2.) making sub-optimal plays as cover is generally a waste of time and throwing away money in my opinion. Most pit folks don't even know the correct plays at different advantages. Only about half even know some form of know basic strategy. The exception would be surrender, 16 vs 10 and splitting 10's. Most pit folks know that card counters play these hands differently at different times. So my solution is to play them the same at all times. Counter's basic strategy allows you to do this. And you are making the optimal play anytime your bigger bets are out, so the cost is minimal. There IS A COST, but worth it IMO.
    Good post Spidey -

    Don't mean to pick it apart, but I would only take exception to the 16 v. 10 situation noted above. If surrender is available, you surrender (period). That is both basic strategy and the correct strategy at any count.

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