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Thread: Speaking of edges...

  1. #1
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    Speaking of edges...

    So as not to hijack the other thread about ‘misplacing’ one’s edge (“Damn it! Where did I put that edge? Probably find it in the last place I look!”) given the curse of variance and the problem of measuring success in geological terms, (1) how does a solo player actually determine whether or not they play with an edge and (2) calculate it?




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  2. #2


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    This is the question that sent me deep into the AP blackjack world.

    After playing on my own for over a year, I wanted to know if I was doing it correctly. After much research and self education on the math of the game, I determined that I needed to keep playing records that were of sufficent detail to let me contrast each session against a sim (CVCX).

    Then I realized that the answer at the session level was noise and that my reordkeeping must provide for a cumulative look at EV and all the associated metrics. In short, I wanted to see a cumulative graph of EV, 1 & 2 standard deviations and actual results. I then understood that my answers weree represented in a statistical manner not an absolute answer. The fact that my charts and data said I had an 87% probability of being at my result also meant that I had a 13% chance to be elsewhere. This is where you have to temper your conclusions with the knowledge of the veracity of your game, game selection, error rates and the other outside influences that likley skewed your data.

    So, while I strongly encourage the serious AP to do this type of analysis, always keep in mind that it is possible to be better or worse.

    Not everyone agrees that this level of analysis is needed and I have no issue with that but for me I needed the guide rails of the statistics to keep the doubts and questions in the correct areas.

    You asked how you can caluclate if you have and edge and I would encourage you get Qfit.com product CVCX as a simulator to tell you what statistically should happen if you play perfectly, which none of us do. Then collect the necessary information from your play to make the comparison. Just remember, the more cumulatice data you collect the more representative it is of the statistical probabilites. But it is not an answer, it is guidance.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    In its simplest form, profit divided by amount risked, stated as a percentage. Eg., 100 hands per hour with average bet of $100 per hand. $150 win divided by amount risked is 1.5%.

    Detailed records, similar or exact to what Stealth has mentioned, kept over a long period of time, will identify trends in your game.

    For myself, I knew what my average win and loss rates per hour, per session, percentage wins etc etc. High % win rates hid a higher dollar loss over dollar win. I thought a series of steps to change that, which made a significant impact on profit.

  4. #4


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    by honestly recording all your session results, hours, min bet, max bet, spread, and table conditions. after enough hundreds of hours it will become apparant what your mathmatical mean is $/hr, and if your choppy results are trending upwards or not. If you dont keep records its kinda hard to know and your relying on your confidence that your real world play is as perfect as your sims.

  5. #5


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    Its a recreational thing for me and it stops being recreational if I spend too much time away from the table working on BJ related stuff. Just an hour ago, I placed my $$ in my shoe box, counted and I am up $365 after a 45 minute session. I note my daily closing amount. Last month, I played 26 hours, lost $1355. 5 days into July, variance is with me and I am up $2835 and by the end of the month, I would hope to be up. So far, 2 losing months, 4 winning months, and I am up about $10+k, around $6+k after expenses. On track to get my $10k at the end of the year.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    if you play perfectly, which none of us do.
    Wrong. I play perfectly, but it doesn't matter because I'm also cursed. Luckily I'm the best player to ever touch a blackjack table(not a troll) or otherwise I'd be screwed. I need every ounce of talent just to be even with everyone else because God and this world hates me. But im used to it, not everyone can deal with that, only happens to the best.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by KingZen View Post
    Wrong. I play perfectly, but it doesn't matter because I'm also cursed. Luckily I'm the best player to ever touch a blackjack table(not a troll) or otherwise I'd be screwed. I need every ounce of talent just to be even with everyone else because God and this world hates me. But im used to it, not everyone can deal with that, only happens to the best.
    This is like the security manager telling me "we have no undetected security breaches"! Well no shit.

    What I know to be true is that you we do not know if we made a mistake and the more complex our count the higher the probability that we will make one or more.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by KingZen View Post
    Wrong. I play perfectly, but it doesn't matter because I'm also cursed. Luckily I'm the best player to ever touch a blackjack table(not a troll) or otherwise I'd be screwed. I need every ounce of talent just to be even with everyone else because God and this world hates me. But im used to it, not everyone can deal with that, only happens to the best.
    Hmmm, let me see.
    KingZen reversed becomes ZenKing.

    I wonder.....

  9. #9
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    I was't going to say anything but that was obvious.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by KingZen View Post
    Wrong. I play perfectly, but it doesn't matter because I'm also cursed. Luckily I'm the best player to ever touch a blackjack table(not a troll) or otherwise I'd be screwed. I need every ounce of talent just to be even with everyone else because God and this world hates me. But im used to it, not everyone can deal with that, only happens to the best.
    Must be hard. /s

    Anyway, what's your process rain-man? Do you index every effect of removal for every deck and rule in existence and compute expectation via floating-point arithmetic in your cranium?

    You and I both know that in order to win, one must use an all-10-rank side count to beat 21. All these other players can keep their Hi-Opt infinity counts to themselves while the *real* winners like you ane me beat the casinos!

    /s/s/s

    Please...

  11. #11
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    I have cvcx and do enjoy building spreadsheets so those are good ideas. I appreciate the responsive posts.

    I guess eventually a pattern should emerge. As Tarzan mentioned in the other thread, the “long run” is a bit like tomorrow - it never comes. Perfect play could, over a considerable period, manifest itself on the left side of the curve and appear normal leaving one questioning their edge. And vice versa. Maybe the statistical joke is that long term results are normally distributed (I’m no mathematician, so I may wrong about that!) so from time to time you’ll see great players who lose over a lifetime and bad players who win over a lifetime.


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  12. #12


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    Similar to what Stealth said....

    After you have many sessions of data collected, look at the sessions individually but together. Here's an example with made up numbers. Let's say you've played 100 sessions of 1 hour each. The sim says you should make $100 in EV per hour and have an hourly std dev of +/- $1,000. Look at your sessions, 68.2% should land between -$900 and +$1,100. And then 27.2% should land between -$1,900 to -$900 and +$1,100 to $2,100. And 4.2% should land between -$2,900 to -$1,900 and +$2,100 to +$3,100. CVCX will tell you all this stuff.

    You should be somewhat close to those numbers. If you're not close to those numbers then you may be doing something like overbetting, underbetting, or making other types of mistakes.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Hmmm, let me see.
    KingZen reversed becomes ZenKing.

    I wonder.....
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I was't going to say anything but that was obvious.
    I think more likely this is someone taking the piss out of ZenKing's latest postings elsewhere. It's a bit heavy handed and over the top. I'm going with it not being ZenKing.
    Last edited by refinery; 07-07-2018 at 05:47 AM.

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