There's no way around the variance

[dalmatian]

Im probably going to get made fun of/ridiculed for posting this but I don't care. Perhaps it will help someone who is in a similar mindset.

I strongly believed that learning a stronger count system combined with increasing wonging would cut my variance significantly. I took a several month hiatus from hi low and learned wong halves for shoe games and hi-opt 2 with ace/7 side counts.

Well, I lost 6000 dollars this year. My total bankroll is ~12,000 so yeah that hurts. I wanted to believe that making myself a stronger player would cut the flux but ironically it increased it (I won 5000 with hi low last year).

Lastly, the black pit boss with glasses in the first pit from the main entrance at Harrah''s Cherokee can s%uck my d$ick. What a complete tool. He had a fit because I was wonging in and out, called another pit boss over, and they both holding hands called upstairs while he gave me dirty looks. All over a $10-2×$125 spread with wonging at negative counts. Sorry I was taking 20$/hr from your tribe you POS.

[ZeeBabar]

I dont get it. Its like a shoplifter in the candy aisle obviously picking up candy and getting mad because it pisses off Walmart employees. I use Hi-LO, do not wong in (will wong out), use a much smaller spread 2 x $10 to 2 x $90 (wonging out at TC2) and am on the positive side. Instead of looking at the count you use and side counts (you probably make a lot more errors), maybe you should have looked at other aspects of your game.

I thinking increased wonging and playing often at gthe sane casino plus a bet spread like yours is asking for trouble.

[Freightman]

And, sadly, it seems if the variance doesn't get you the second hand smoke will...........

What are the rules, decks and pen? How good is your game?

[ummagumma]

I use Hi-Lo and have done for over 40 years. I've never wonged in or out and have a x6 spread from the table minimum. I have a largish bankroll relative to my average bet and in the 20 years I've played within that 40 year period I've never had a losing year. I pick my games carefully, don't give a monkeys about an act or how some casino employee looks at me and just get on with it. Perhaps I've been lucky but in my opinion wonging can be a killer if you make it too obvious or aren't in a joint with lots of tables where you can disguise it more easily. I'd suggest you stop wonging, take your spread down and start relaxing and enjoying the game again....

[ferenc11]

+1 ummagumma

[ZeeBabar]

I use Hi-Lo and have done for over 40 years. I've never wonged in or out and have a x6 spread from the table minimum. I have a largish bankroll relative to my average bet and in the 20 years I've played within that 40 year period I've never had a losing year. I pick my games carefully, don't give a monkeys about an act or how some casino employee looks at me and just get on with it. Perhaps I've been lucky but in my opinion wonging can be a killer if you make it too obvious or aren't in a joint with lots of tables where you can disguise it more easily. I'd suggest you stop wonging, take your spread down and start relaxing and enjoying the game again....

You might have been playing DD games or just been lucky. I can't imagine a 6 deck, no S, h17 game you can win consistently with a x6 spread while playing entire shoes without wonging out.

You can take bathroom breaks and long phone calls in negative decks.

I do play a similar 6 deck game and it can be beaten but all the wonging in and out plus a spread like that would possibly pit and ploppies out. Question is whether he is betting optimally, waiting to TC 2 to increase his bet and how he plays is important. Switching to a higher level count, keep Ace and 7 sidecount s and remember index plays says to me that he might be making errors.

[RS]

The variance is always going to be there. Not much to do to cut down the variance drastically without simultaneously cutting EV. What you want to do is play stronger games with a lower N0 or a game where you can play more hours at. Getting to N0 faster is similar to playing a game with lower variance. Perhaps look at other factors in your game to make it stronger, like HPH, spread, or just hours you can play while on a trip.

[ZeeBabar]

I use Hi-Lo and have done for over 40 years. I've never wonged in or out and have a x6 spread from the table minimum. I have a largish bankroll relative to my average bet and in the 20 years I've played within that 40 year period I've never had a losing year. I pick my games carefully, don't give a monkeys about an act or how some casino employee looks at me and just get on with it. Perhaps I've been lucky but in my opinion wonging can be a killer if you make it too obvious or aren't in a joint with lots of tables where you can disguise it more easily. I'd suggest you stop wonging, take your spread down and start relaxing and enjoying the game again....

I know it's a poor choice of game but I'm wonging out and basically only playing positive counts. That should b a winning game with no spread. On top of that I'm spreading 10 to 2×125 whích is 25:1.

You might be getting away with wonging and that spread now but I am afraid if you start winning 2-3 consecutive sessions, they will take action.

It's probably variance. I had 3 bad sessions with loses of $2000, $2100 and $1700 in early June, quit for 2 weeks to pick my wounds, returned to play more conservatively, won $700 and got confidence back. At the end of June, I lost only $1200 for the month. Took a short trip on July 1-2, won $1300 and another $1050 yesterday.

It could be just variance. When I have 3 bad sessions in a row, I get conservative but personalities are different and you might get more aggressive. I lose 3 in a row, I want to get a win session so I will walk away with small wins rather than try to recoup all my losses. I play best after my confidence is restored.

Earlier, after losses I would consider a change in my count system. I asked the same question here and on BJ21 (when it was doing well) and the later forum had good advice for me and that was that I was blaming HiLo, that I should just work on other aspects of my game. It helped me.

[Three]

Switching to a higher level count, keep Ace and 7 sidecount s and remember index plays says to me that he might be making errors.

Error prone people tend to make mistakes and perfectionist tend to do everything accurately. Mistakes are more a function of your mentality toward study and practice along with your mental make-up and your discipline. Thinking that the task is what causes mistakes shows you don't understand the entire dynamic of how and why people make mistakes. Many do much better at complex tasks but have trouble staying focused on tasks that aren't challenging enough. I guess you could separate things out into two groups. The achievers in life that can develop higher skills and master them. And the strugglers in life that won't put in the effort to master the simpler skills so they don't think tougher skills are possible. The former thinks everyone is like them and know they can master any skill, no matter how difficult, with enough practice. The latter thinks everyone is as inept at mastering skills as they are. Since they make mistakes and can't master the simpler skills they think nobody can master more complex skills. Both groups need to realize that everyone is not like them. Others have more or less discipline which cause them to perform differently. The important thing is to recognize who you are and do what is necessary for you to shine. A man's got to recognize his limitations and his strengths.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo4rhrTAmo4

[ZeeBabar]

I use Hi-Lo and have done for over 40 years. I've never wonged in or out and have a x6 spread from the table minimum. I have a largish bankroll relative to my average bet and in the 20 years I've played within that 40 year period I've never had a losing year. I pick my games carefully, don't give a monkeys about an act or how some casino employee looks at me and just get on with it. Perhaps I've been lucky but in my opinion wonging can be a killer if you make it too obvious or aren't in a joint with lots of tables where you can disguise it more easily. I'd suggest you stop wonging, take your spread down and start relaxing and enjoying the game again....

Error prone people tend to make mistakes and perfectionist tend to do everything accurately. Mistakes are more a function of your mentality toward study and practice along with your mental make-up and your discipline. Thinking that the task is what causes mistakes shows you don't understand the entire dynamic of how and why people make mistakes. Many do much better at complex tasks but have trouble staying focused on tasks that aren't challenging enough. I guess you could separate things out into two groups. The achievers in life that can develop higher skills and master them. And the strugglers in life that won't put in the effort to master the simpler skills so they don't think tougher skills are possible. The former thinks everyone is like them and know they can master any skill, no matter how difficult, with enough practice. The latter thinks everyone is as inept at mastering skills as they are. Since they make mistakes and can't master the simpler skills they think nobody can master more complex skills. Both groups need to realize that everyone is not like them. Others have more or less discipline which cause them to perform differently. The important thing is to recognize who you are and do what is necessary for you to shine. A man's got to recognize his limitations and his strengths.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo4rhrTAmo4

T3, it's not a matter of being inept, it's a matter of priorities. If I play recreationally, play to enjoy myself, than I do not have the motivation to put in the work. I never ever practice, don't spend anytime summing or on software, no longer read BJ books. For my purposes, what I know plus scanning the forums and archives while commercials play on TV is sufficient.

I am not competing with you on AP'ing, I have other things I enjoy in life and in some I am probably better than you.

[refinery]

..

[Three]

WTF?! Wh?n am I gonna have the turnaround sessions that bring my AV up to my EV?

You are never due to have a correction to EV. What happens is after enough play this negative downturn will lose its significance. It will never be expected to be erased. Your EV is the same whether you won a lot over EV or lost and are way below EV.

If I play recreationally, play to enjoy myself, than I do not have the motivation to put in the work. I never ever practice, don't spend anytime summing or on software, no longer read BJ books. For my purposes, what I know plus scanning the forums and archives while commercials play on TV is sufficient.

Thank you for proving my point.

[spiderman]

I strongly believed that learning a stronger count system combined with increasing wonging would cut my variance significantly.

Wonging can help with variance, but it is blatant mis-information that a stronger count reduces variance by anything other than marginally.

Im probably going to get made fun of/ridiculed for posting this but I don't care. Perhaps it will help someone who is in a similar mindset.

I hope you are not ridiculed because there has been some mis-information concerning reduction of variance due to so called "stronger counts". One proponent of a stronger count has repeatedly made claims that he all but eliminated variance from his game, hitting his EV every few hours. That simple is NOT how blackjack card counting works and should be challenged and corrected. So you sharing your experiences should be helpful and may prevent some other player from falsely being led down that road.

If a player wants to play a so called "stronger count", then play a so called "stronger" count. But do so with factually and reasonable expectations.