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Thread: What's the possibility of a ploppy that wins in the long run?

  1. #1


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    What's the possibility of a ploppy that wins in the long run?

    Fairly new counter. Got started because I really like to play BJ and wish to not lose money on it.
    There is no local game playable so I only play when i travel if there's a good game to be found.
    Results has been positive so far. I have been building more BR and hoping to do it more seriously.

    My question is at a point when I was clocking about 50 hours of play, and also being on negative side of variance one night. I met a ploppy that got pissed with my playing and said i'm playing it wrongly. I was wongin in and out, spreading hands messing up flow of cards etc. He back bet on my box because i wonged in and they were have some good voodoo about 2 boxes is good flow, and then insist on making betting decision for my box.

    Long story short, this guy is a ploppy through and through no doubt about it. As we are arguing over how to bet the hand, he claimed he's been playing in that joint every night for a year (guy's a asian student), and has NOT lost money ACCUMULATIVELY so far.

    What are the chances of that happening? Subsequently I did figure out it appears when he first started playing he plays smaller bets and then begin playing bigger bets. He only flat bets though. My guess is the variance of flat betting bigger and bigger bets cause him to not lose any money yet.

    I've also heard some other stories of ploppies posting a win in periods as long as a few years despite playing regularly. I suppose they might has some good BR management and decent playing, but definitely not +EV. Is that possible?

    Even though i like my winnings, and trust the math, I'm still abit unsure of my counting ability. Due to limited access, sometimes I've also playing non countable games on a holiday or work trip just for fun. Some games I've played has fairly bad rules I'm not sure if my counting is good enough to bring it to +EV. Kinda scared it's just the degen in me and my winnings are just luck and not skill. How do you distinguish the CC from these lucky ploppies? How many hours of play is deemed to be the long run.

  2. #2


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    Anyone can be lucky.
    Blackjack is a -EV game, but it's a small house edge. I've had plenty of winning sessions just playing basic strategy - but I've had more losing sessions. Anything is possible - it's just statistically unlikely.

  3. #3


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    Your last paragraph indicates that you are a ploppy yourself. Knowing how to count cards and increase bets does not eliminate you from being a ploppy and you are doomed if you head to casinos where there are non countable games, play those. Self discipline is a key to move you from poppy to a non poppy and the latter requires playing only games that can give you an edge. From what I have learned on these forums, understanding bet spread requirements and optimal betting is key along with other stuff.

    Car too many think counting cards and knowing when to wong out is sufficient and it seldom is.

    Asians are the most superstitious and they often want to control others at the table because they believe adding or dropping a hand, hitting some hands (12 against a bust card for example) by another player hurts their play. I used to be too accomodating to others at the table and one thing I have learned here is that it's silly to let others play with my money. I have to play my way and give less priority to harmony.

  4. #4


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    You are maybe right. I did intermix AP play and ploppy play which is not a good idea. At times i was just stuck somewhere with bad games because work or holiday takes me there. I only min bet on those games and have some social interaction. Even though Ev is -, it's a very affordable expense compared to other forms of entertainment like going to the theatre or the pub. At 5/10 min bet at a full table, getting a free drink is a win. Sometimes i do that to hone my counting skills, a 5 dollar table has maybe only a a few dollars -EV per hour, it beats kitchen table practicing.

    I am now more serious, more confident of my skills and trying to fully eliminate my ploppy play and considering using BJ to provide abit of a part time income, also to plan out holidays to places that have good games.

    My questions is how possible it is for these lucky ploppies (maybe even myself included) to post CC level winnings continuously for a long period of time. It is so truly frustrating that a ploppy wins more money than you that defies the odds.

  5. #5


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by blue_phantom View Post
    <snip>Long story short, this guy is a ploppy through and through no doubt about it. As we are arguing over how to bet the hand, he claimed he's been playing in that joint every night for a year (guy's a asian student), and has NOT lost money ACCUMULATIVELY so far.

    What are the chances of that happening?<snip>
    blue_phantom,

    The probability of a BJ ploppy claiming to be ahead after a year of daily play is, in my experience, above 90%.

    The probability that he is in fact ahead after a year of daily play is below 10%.

    For an informative article on this topic, see

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/black...y-at-blackjack

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  6. #6


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    Agree with Doghand when it comes to the numbers (naturally!)

  7. #7
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    Is a BS player with positive EV a ploppy ?

  8. #8


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    Very helpful!
    the probabilities are much higher than I thought. BJ really is the best game for the normal recreational player........ with proper BR management of course.

  9. #9


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    BR management means nothing in this context. A "smart" gambler playing negative EV BS blackjack will bet the absolute min, his expectation of losing all of his money in the long run in 100%. Any sort of stop losses or wins are artificial and affect nothing about the long term expectation.

    FWIW most ploppies do not keep track of their wins and losses and honestly probably have no sense of how far in the hole they really are. You hear more of the winning stories than the losing ones... but there are some "lucky" people out there. All events on the normal curve are going to happen with their given frequency, which means big ploppy winners, of course thats what the comps and "freebies" are for. The longer the player is in the seat playing, the farther left the curve shifts and the probability of long term losses increase...

  10. #10


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    I won my first year as a ploppy. I played 70 times my first year and was in the black at the end of the year by $160. Pretty much just flat betted table min which was $2 back then.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    blue_phantom,

    The probability of a BJ ploppy claiming to be ahead after a year of daily play is, in my experience, above 90%.

    The probability that he is in fact ahead after a year of daily play is below 10%.

    For an informative article on this topic, see

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/black...y-at-blackjack

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Very informative. Thank you.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    blue_phantom,

    The probability of a BJ ploppy claiming to be ahead after a year of daily play is, in my experience, above 90%.

    The probability that he is in fact ahead after a year of daily play is below 10%.

    For an informative article on this topic, see

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/black...y-at-blackjack
    Makes sense - the Jacobson analysis shows that for the typical blackjack game, the house's N0 against the player is 13,225 rounds, thus they have an 84% chance of being ahead after that many rounds. N02 (98% chance of house being ahead) would be 4 x 13,225 = 52,900 rounds or about 500 hours of play.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmybond007 View Post
    BR management means nothing in this context. A "smart" gambler playing negative EV BS blackjack will bet the absolute min, his expectation of losing all of his money in the long run in 100%. Any sort of stop losses or wins are artificial and affect nothing about the long term expectation.
    what you described as "smart" gambler is what i call BR management, playing within his means and flat betting. His chances of coming up ahead or even or small loss in a few years despite -EV play is at least a lot better than the "martingale" degen, who will lose much much more than the HE*bet amount.

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