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Thread: DD, lost limit session advice

  1. #14


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Win or loss is irrelevant to when to stop or not. The correct answer is where there your EV drop or suffers. Prime examples are when players flock to the table, bad penetration etc. That being said it is unwise to totally dismiss your current win loss for the session and how the pit perceives it. You often hear people express concern on a casinos "win tolerance," but the fact is that big losses catch attention as well. Losing big in short order (which normally requires large bets) and then being seen betting just single green chips for extended periods show the casino you are varying your bets. Also if they suspect you of counting then they now know you appear to be well funded, even worse is if your comportment is seemingly unaffected, large losses like that ploppies usually get visibly upset....(hint hint) Normal ploppies dont sit down, dump 3k and then bet just 25$. The normal pattern i have noticed in my experiences in ploppies will start out small, hit a streak of wins and then start pressing their bets and run up a large win. Never have seen the reverse, where the ploppies runs up a huge loss and then bet a wager that would be nearly impossible to achieve a loss that large.... They might lose their few hundred they started with and walk away. Ploppies are not there to grind it out at the BJ tables, they rely on "luck" to put them on "house money" and they feel better about playing after that point....

    If your store frequently sees you win and lose the amounts you mention and seem comfortable with it, you probably have nothing to worry about. If your losses affect you mentally and your playing suffers then by all means stop playing.....

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by LVBear584 View Post
    How do they handle a double on A,8 that receives a 2? Do you remember the Sands Regency A,8 double down case ?
    Wow, I read the article but could not open the Gaming Boards ruling document.

    This is one of the most egregious examples of the level of bias in the Gaming regulators to preference the casinos. I have personal experience with a couple more that are similar. The casinos, in concert with the regulators, often use the interpretation of regulations to steal from customers.

    When you back away and understand the relationship of the regulators to the casinos you will understand their bias. The relationship of revenue provided to the regulators and government from the casino make for a "sleeping with the enemy" structure that
    sullies the industry, although the casinos do a good job of that without any help. (do you detect any bitterness toward them?)

    The proliferation of casinos in our country are all predicated on government approvals that are simply a negotiated revenue sharing agreement. They don't really give a damn about equitable representation.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    WTF,

    Maybe its not variance.

    Bad play choices
    Errors
    Bad bet ramp
    Dealer shorting payouts
    Lost money in bathroom
    Dropped money on floor under table
    Left too early when winning 1K, would have won 6K if you had stayed
    Max bet is too late in TC
    Bad judgement on game management
    Win/loss statistics meaningless due to superficial nature

    Or

    Gravitational pull from moon during the losing period. Check astronomical charts.
    No lucky rabbit foot in pocket
    Lost your four leaf clover

    Whatever...........
    You forgot the hookers getting his money.

  4. #17
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You forgot the hookers getting his money.
    True APs don't use hookers, they go for hand shuffles.

  5. #18


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You forgot the hookers getting his money.
    Love your way of helping newbies and intermediates. You boast about your prowess in long paragraphs, show off about your bin system that no one knows about, write pages of bullshit and idiotic posts like this one when you could have suggested session limits and such. Wow!

  6. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Now I have won there. However I am in a bad streak. I usually leave after winning $1k but when I am losing, often I hang around. Sometimes I have played as much as 5 hours straight and got to the positive side but my last 2 trips, I went in a hole early and ended up playing 4-5 hours, losing $3-4k each time.

    Given the almost no heat, it's tough to leave the game when behind. I usually take $3-4k to the $25 min. Game. It's probably just variance but I am wondering if I should place a loss limit on my sessions.

    My won/loss record shows a $6k loss in my first year of playing there, about even the second year, up $5 the third year and was up $4k this year through May, the last couple of sessions has brought it into the red.
    You shouldn't make decisions based on your wins or losses. If you have longevity issues that make you limit wins then you must also adjust the rest of your play.

    For example, you say you want to win no more than $2k per visit. So if you get up over $1K you risk going over your win threshold. Basically continued play as you approach the win threshold will cause two things, both of which are undesirable. You win over a thousand between shuffles and you have won too much. Or you lose which is obviously bad. Staying in the comfort zone in the middle is just added exposure, which hurts longevity.

    Now, if you have a reason to affect your wins you need to balance your losses so as not to create a losing bias. You don't want your sessions to have the most severe results be losses. What you would like to see is smaller losses when compared to wins. If you are going to win 60% of your sessions but your average lose is too high in relation to your average win you are playing a losing game. You want your average win to be at least as high, if not higher, than your average loss. That means not playing extra long trying to win your money back. If your time is more balanced between winning days and losing days then your monetary win to loss ratio should be where you want it. It looks good to post modest losses. It looks bad to post very large losses. Your threat level can be expressed in your swings. Dropping a few thousand and winning it back in one day is looked at as a $3K win by most casinos. If they are tracking how many chips you have they are wondering about your swings. If they count down the chip tray more than once when you have been playing alone they may also be wondering if you are pocketing chips and are most likely tracking how much you are up or down. The only place missing chips can be is in your pocket. While it is valid to look at everything as one big session, the reality of casino play can cause a skewing of results that hurts you long term if artificial caps are not balanced.

    If you bring $3k to $4k you should rarely lose it all because you need a minimum amount to start betting on a fresh shuffle. I busted my first trip BR ever recently coming home with $3.5k. I had a choice of adjusting my stakes down to play with what I had left or leave. I decided to leave rather than decrease my bets. I figure I need at least $5k to start a shoe. It was not a pretty trip. I got big advantages quickly in almost every shoe and was getting my ass handed to me in most. To make matters worse I was heads up in many of the bad ones. The ones I did win were little better than break even shoes. But I am not playing a pitch game which would require less money to start freshly shuffled cards.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You shouldn't make decisions based on your wins or losses. If you have longevity issues that make you limit wins then you must also adjust the rest of your play.

    For example, you say you want to win no more than $2k per visit. So if you get up over $1K you risk going over your win threshold. Basically continued play as you approach the win threshold will cause two things, both of which are undesirable. You win over a thousand between shuffles and you have won too much. Or you lose which is obviously bad. Staying in the comfort zone in the middle is just added exposure, which hurts longevity.

    Now, if you have a reason to affect your wins you need to balance your losses so as not to create a losing bias. You don't want your sessions to have the most severe results be losses. What you would like to see is smaller losses when compared to wins. If you are going to win 60% of your sessions but your average lose is too high in relation to your average win you are playing a losing game. You want your average win to be at least as high, if not higher, than your average loss. That means not playing extra long trying to win your money back. If your time is more balanced between winning days and losing days then your monetary win to loss ratio should be where you want it. It looks good to post modest losses. It looks bad to post very large losses. Your threat level can be expressed in your swings. Dropping a few thousand and winning it back in one day is looked at as a $3K win by most casinos. If they are tracking how many chips you have they are wondering about your swings. If they count down the chip tray more than once when you have been playing alone they may also be wondering if you are pocketing chips and are most likely tracking how much you are up or down. The only place missing chips can be is in your pocket. While it is valid to look at everything as one big session, the reality of casino play can cause a skewing of results that hurts you long term if artificial caps are not balanced.

    If you bring $3k to $4k you should rarely lose it all because you need a minimum amount to start betting on a fresh shuffle. I busted my first trip BR ever recently coming home with $3.5k. I had a choice of adjusting my stakes down to play with what I had left or leave. I decided to leave rather than decrease my bets. I figure I need at least $5k to start a shoe. It was not a pretty trip. I got big advantages quickly in almost every shoe and was getting my ass handed to me in most. To make matters worse I was heads up in many of the bad ones. The ones I did win were little better than break even shoes. But I am not playing a pitch game which would require less money to start freshly shuffled cards.
    Much better, thanks. I had lost in 3 trips there but I just returned from another, and the bad streak is over. I played 90 minutes and won $1500 and the next day, went back and won $1900. I am down just $250 at this casino which I will visit again in a week.

    This casino is quite convinced their poor rules cant be beaten consistently. There is really no scrutiny and my act is good enough to where they just see me as a good player. I have been playing there for near 4 years. As I said in my OP, as long as wins are under $2k, max bet is under $200, spread is under 1-6, one is okay. I am sure they dont evaluate via technology or someone in a surveillance room. Its a locals place and one seldom sees black por chunky Green played. When someone starts exceeding those limits, a Pit guy comes to the table and starts hawking there at first and if he determines a counter, first is a new dealer and a change of cards followed by a 1 deck pen.

  8. #21
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    This casino is quite convinced their poor rules cant be beaten consistently. There is really no scrutiny and my act is good enough to where they just see me as a good player. I have been playing there for near 4 years. As I said in my OP, as long as wins are under $2k, max bet is under $200, spread is under 1-6
    No. They are convinced you aren't a threat with the combination of the above. They are right.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    No. They are convinced you aren't a threat with the combination of the above. They are right.
    I am fine with it. The year end record for 2017, their record, had me winning just under $5k there (about half my annual goal) and while I am now down only a couple of hundred for June, I am up $3k so far.

  10. #23
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    It wasn't a knock on anything. You just don't seem to understand that the smarter places let non-threats play. You make posts that give poor advice based on your misconceptions as to why they let you play.
    Last edited by Three; 06-25-2018 at 08:33 AM.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    It wasn't a knock on anything. You just don't seem to understand that the smarter places let non-threats play. You make posts that give poor advise based on your misconceptions as to why they let you play.
    Great summation, T3.

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Great summation, T3.
    Except for the spelling of "advice"! :-)

    Don

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