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Thread: I18 Index Clarification

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    I’m missing the joke about this guy? Is from an earlier thread? Can you fill me in? Thanks!
    Just go back and read the last five or six of Tarzan's posts. He planned to use the name for a sock if needed. I thought Jane would be a better fit as in Dick and.
    Last edited by BoSox; 06-15-2018 at 10:21 AM.

  2. #28
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Okay, I consulted with EnriqueVasquezFromEastNogales on this... and he said if you were to take an array of 330 different deck compositions and compare the Hi-Lo decision to T count decision for 9vs7, before any adjustments are make for key cards or imbalanced groupings, you would have 19 instances of hitting when Enrique the Hi-Lo player is doubling, you would have 8 instances of doubling when Enrique the Hi-Lo player is hitting. It's actually quite close. Picture what a Venn diagram for this would look like, about 2.5% sticking out on one side and about 5.8% on the other edge with most of it matching up. It's only these 27 specific types of deck compositions of the 330 that differ, so they are really not that far off from one another. One is considerably more trouble to go through for a slightly more defined index.

  3. #29


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    Thank you for that thorough response.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    My indices differ from Hi-Lo indices, but some I-18 indices remain the same (or very nearly) at any level of pen. The I-18 indices impacted by pen (as in the index is different at one deck remaining than it is for four decks remaining) are: Insurance, 15vsT, 10vsT, 10vsA, 9vs7, 13vs2, and 13vs3. The four I-18 hands impacted by a difference between S17 and H17 are T,Tvs6, 11vsA, 9vs2, and 12vs6. Be advised that many of these differences are not that far off from one another, for instance 13vs2 being -1 hit at four decks remaining, but more like -2 at less than two decks remaining, 9vs7 is +3 at four decks remaining, but more like +2 with less than two decks remaining.
    Is it me or does it seem like Hard Doubles are more affected by these "floating advantages?" For years now, ive noticed you can take the index for 11vsX pretty far past the index when theres a deck or less remaining..Bit with splits,stiffs,ins, and soft doubles you can only be about half as aggressive compared to when hard doubling..What about 12 vs 2 doesnt that index drop "closer to the cut" some what too?
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  5. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    "if it’s close to the index, I usually go for it."
    A Costly Error. While I cannot cite the page in which it appears,
    but I assure you that Peter Griffin
    (in TTofBJ) states that the player
    must
    not do what you are describing, and indeed will have BETTER
    results by sticking to Basic Strategy unless you are
    certain that before
    a play is made
    that you have FULLY realized the index. In very simple
    terms ... if your index for a double is +2 you
    must have met or exceeded
    +2. Indeed, it is far better if you are approaching +3. Besides being costly
    making such errors, (because you want to figuratively 'pat yourself on the
    back' for being so
    clever) ~ feeding your ego is what I call this phenomena.

    It is self-destructive and it is not
    risk averse and indeed increases your ugly
    variance; something that WE do not want.

    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 06-15-2018 at 07:09 PM.

  6. #32
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    What about 12 vs 2 doesnt that index drop "closer to the cut" some what too?
    Yes, there is such a thing as a difference for less than 2 decks, greater than 2 decks for 12vs2. What the index is at 1.5 decks remaining is going to be different than what it is with 4.5 decks remaining. Haven't you studied some of this in detail, Jack? I thought you had... You asked about this just to keep me on my toes?

  7. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    In very simple turns if your index for a double is +2 you
    must have met or exceeded +2. Far better id you are approaching +3.
    Doubling prematurely reduces EV while increasing variance. If you don't understand why that is very bad you should not be playing at all. Look up SCORE. Lower EV lowers SCORE and higher variance lowers SCORE. Doing both at the same time lowers SCORE a lot.

    There is also the issue of frequency. Assuming DD Hilio with 40 cards cut off, you will get a TC of +6 1.42% of the time. You will get a TC of +7 or more 2.46% of the time. You would be better off using an index of +9 than +6. TC +7 and +8 frequencies are .75% and .73% respectively. Each TC is loaded more at the end closer to TC 0, so the EV gain for those two TCs is probably not much more than the EV loss for TC +6. So with an index of +6 your EV is probably barely better than than an index of +9 for EV but you double 2.9% of your 9v7's with little gain and the gain you would have with an index of +6 would be for TC +9 or more, which is .98% of the time you get a 9v7. There is very little EV gain at the index but for a positive index the frequencies are much higher at the index and even higher when doubling puts out more money to have a lower EV below the index. Hopefully that is easy for Ds to understand. Griffin's point was when you double too early you increase variance and eat up a huge amount of the EV the double would bring you. (My commentary: From a volatility versus return perspective you are better off using BS than an index that has you prematurely doubling.) Griffin discusses the cost of error of using an index systematically prematurely versus systematically too late on pages 106-108 in The Theory of Blackjack. There Griffin says:

    "Overall it seems, then, that the consequences of changing strategy too frequently will be more serious than those of not changing strategy often enough. Indeed, the Baldwin group foresaw this in their book, 'Ill considered changes will probably do more harm than good... Many players overemphasize the last few draws and, as a result make drastic and costly changes in their strategy'."
    Last edited by Three; 06-15-2018 at 07:02 PM.

  8. #34
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    Tarzan has, for years, addressed me as "Poncho",
    simply because he would see me playing SPANISH21
    I will go out on a skinny limb here and suggest that the
    first time that Tarzan addressed me as "Poncho" goes
    back to 2009 I believe, and Tarzan was clutching his
    ample girth, doubled over with guffaws. Foolish me, just
    a disheveled emaciated senescent gamester, had suggested
    (a few dozen times) that a joke has a short half-life, and while
    there was nothing funny about it in the first place, he ought to
    lay it to rest. Do I make comments re: Bombay Sapphire Gin to
    Gin Rummy players?

  9. #35


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    Yes, there is such a thing as a difference for less than 2 decks, greater than 2 decks for 12vs2. What the index is at 1.5 decks remaining is going to be different than what it is with 4.5 decks remaining. Haven't you studied some of this in detail, Jack? I thought you had... You asked about this just to keep me on my toes?
    Ya, ive studied this, but never in a book, but rather through years of raw practice.. I just kinda like to see others like myself breaking down the finer details of the game... Not really in a mathematical sense, but rather the mechanics of card counting itself..I mean if you ever found yourself in the "middle of round" debating for 5 minutes whether or not to hit or stand or doubling 11vA simply because theres most likely a small card in the hole than you can probably relate to what im talking about here..

    Nevertheless, i have to be honest with myself and admit that alot of things that i do or "plays that i make" are sometime based on my own thoughts or ideas..So when you hear of someone else that actually SPlITS XXs below the desired index, or STANDS on the HIT index based solely on where your are in deck..Then its probably not a bad thing to try to compare a few notes..I mean after-all were blackjack players here..
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    A Costly Error. While I cannot cite the page in which it appears,
    but I assure you that Peter Griffin
    (in TTofBJ) states that the player
    must
    not do what you are describing, and indeed will have BETTER
    results by sticking to Basic Strategy unless you are
    certain that before
    a play is made
    that you have FULLY realized the index. In very simple
    terms ... if your index for a double is +2 you
    must have met or exceeded
    +2. Indeed, it is far better if you are approaching +3. Besides being costly
    making such errors, (because you want to figuratively 'pat yourself on the
    back' for being so
    clever) ~ feeding your ego is what I call this phenomena.

    It is self-destructive and it is not
    risk averse and indeed increases your ugly
    variance; something that WE do not want.

    Point taken. I’ll make sure I’m at or above the index number before I double in the future...at least on my hand.

    This brings up a related topic. There is a lot of scavenger playing that goes on at my local casinos. Sometimes so many chips are flying around the table, I have a hard time keeping track of who’s chips are who’s. I participate in a lot of these scavenger plays and in fact encourage doubles that I know are positive EV but not quite at the index number. Ploppies usually feel better about making these doubles when I go halves with them.

    Do you agree it’s a good move to double a 10 vs 10 (and several other doubles) slightly below the index number if you’re doing it on someone else’s hand? They will put up half, and I do the other half. I always do this. I have a couple ladies that think they win their double down more if I go halves with them.

  11. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    ...Do you agree it’s a good move to double a 10 vs 10 (and several other doubles) slightly below the index number if you’re doing it on someone else’s hand? They will put up half, and I do the other half. I always do this. I have a couple ladies that think they win their double down more if I go halves with them.
    for you, of course it is...especially if you are WINNING!!!

    good luck!

  12. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    Yes, there is such a thing as a difference for less than 2 decks, greater than 2 decks for 12vs2. What the index is at 1.5 decks remaining is going to be different than what it is with 4.5 decks remaining.
    As Don said, no difference in Hi-Lo.

    It's +4 for 1.5 decks remaining
    http://pokermenteur.free.fr/images/52-104.png

    and +4 for 4.5 decks
    http://pokermenteur.free.fr/images/208-260.png

    Is it worth mentioning that this is not the case in KO?
    Last edited by Phoebe; 06-16-2018 at 09:50 AM.

  13. #39
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phoebe View Post
    As Don said, no difference in Hi-Lo.

    It's +4 for 1.5 decks remaining
    http://pokermenteur.free.fr/images/52-104.png

    and +4 for 4.5 decks
    http://pokermenteur.free.fr/images/208-260.png

    Is it worth mentioning that this is not the case in KO?
    Something else EnriqueVasquezFromEastNogales the Hi-Lo player mentioned to me on his way out the door was, "F U Gringo! The index is whatever I want it to be!". Please keep in mind what I mentioned about a more clearly defined index, Phoebe. Maybe the Hi-Lo index does not alter for 12vs2, but the composition dependent index does. The line of demarcation for the index plays out a little differently with 1 deck remaining than it does with 4 decks remaining. The same Venn diagram example for 12vs2 would have considerably less overlap than 9vs7. I'm not saying the Hi-Lo index is incorrect, that you should panic, or change it, or go mental about it, I'm saying it's less defined if comparing it to composition dependent play, still quite correct, still quite functional.




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