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Thread: Boy, This Seems Weird

  1. #1


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    Boy, This Seems Weird

    Three-peat just happened. It doesn't happen very often for me. It has only happened one other time so far this year. Usually at least one day out of three is a losing day, but not this trip. I'm now 19 vs 2 for the year in sessions.

    Anyway, I'm just reviewing my stats since my last trip. The odd thing is since my last trip my win per hour has increased by $3.04 per hour, but my average session win has decreased by $4.44 per session(day). This seems really weird. I didn't analyze how this happened, but I suppose it is possible. One of the trip sessions was only a little better than break even. Maybe that caused the average session win to decrease.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I didn't analyze how this happened, but I suppose it is possible
    You won more per hour on average than your previous hourly but played fewer hours/day on average. Or you made a mistake in your calculations.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Three-peat just happened. It doesn't happen very often for me. It has only happened one other time so far this year. Usually at least one day out of three is a losing day, but not this trip. I'm now 19 vs 2 for the year in sessions.

    Anyway, I'm just reviewing my stats since my last trip. The odd thing is since my last trip my win per hour has increased by $3.04 per hour, but my average session win has decreased by $4.44 per session(day). This seems really weird. I didn't analyze how this happened, but I suppose it is possible. One of the trip sessions was only a little better than break even. Maybe that caused the average session win to decrease.
    Was each session the same length/duration? I used to have 80%+ winning sessions and often 7-8 in a row but that was because the duration and $$ lost in my losing sessions were much greater than my winning sessions. I often would leave with a small win but stick around and get back to even when losing. This turned some losing sessions into winning sessions and others to bigger losses. The net result was higher % of winning sessions.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Three-peat just happened. It doesn't happen very often for me. It has only happened one other time so far this year. Usually at least one day out of three is a losing day, but not this trip. I'm now 19 vs 2 for the year in sessions.

    Anyway, I'm just reviewing my stats since my last trip. The odd thing is since my last trip my win per hour has increased by $3.04 per hour, but my average session win has decreased by $4.44 per session(day). This seems really weird. I didn't analyze how this happened, but I suppose it is possible. One of the trip sessions was only a little better than break even. Maybe that caused the average session win to decrease.
    M.P. I have a question. I bought these little tally counters. They have a little clear band kind of like a watch band but small, so it fits around your finger. I had every intention of using them to count rounds per hour, but I don't know if I can keep track of everything else I need to while counting plus push my tally counter button.....how do you keep track of the categories necessary to keep your stats so well? Do you write in a little pocket notebook while you are sitting at a table? I'm very interested in keeping records like you do. If you would rather e-mail me you can...thank you! [email protected]

    Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by trucker View Post
    M.P. I have a question. I bought these little tally counters. They have a little clear band kind of like a watch band but small, so it fits around your finger. I had every intention of using them to count rounds per hour, but I don't know if I can keep track of everything else I need to while counting plus push my tally counter button.....how do you keep track of the categories necessary to keep your stats so well? Do you write in a little pocket notebook while you are sitting at a table? I'm very interested in keeping records like you do. If you would rather e-mail me you can...thank you! [email protected]

    Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
    My excel spreadsheet calculates everything by formula. The only thing I keep track of is the bj win or loss for the day and the hours played. On a trip I usually get some free play that I play on the machines and I track this separate from blackjack.

    Here is how I do it. I have a beginning pack of money devoted for my blackjack trip. It is my trip bankroll which is usually between $2,500 to $3,500. I know how much money I have at the start of the trip and at night when I'm done playing for the day I count the money I have to determine my exact win or loss. I also mark down all expenses paid out of my trip bankroll at the end of the day. If I pay for my hotel room with cash I track that. I keep track of drinks paid out of my bankroll usually paid by blackjack chips. I keep track of meal cost paid from my trip bankroll so not to distort my win or loss. These are my notes for the trip. When I get home I enter this information in my blackjack spreadsheet. I enter my hotel costs in a column of my spreadsheet, but I don't enter any meal costs because I figure I have to eat if I'm home or on the road and a lot of my meals are comped. I just track these costs to get an accurate win or loss. At the start of the next day I always have a new starting trip bankroll depending if I won or lost.
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 06-18-2018 at 10:55 PM.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You won more per hour on average than your previous hourly but played fewer hours/day on average. Or you made a mistake in your calculations.
    Yes, this is exactly what happened. My average session length before this trip was 6.19 hours, but after the trip my average session length was only 5.95 hours.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Three-peat just happened. It doesn't happen very often for me. It has only happened one other time so far this year. Usually at least one day out of three is a losing day, but not this trip. I'm now 19 vs 2 for the year in sessions.

    Anyway, I'm just reviewing my stats since my last trip. The odd thing is since my last trip my win per hour has increased by $3.04 per hour, but my average session win has decreased by $4.44 per session(day). This seems really weird. I didn't analyze how this happened, but I suppose it is possible. One of the trip sessions was only a little better than break even. Maybe that caused the average session win to decrease.
    It is this type of question that causes the need to have better session data.

    First, I want enough information to be able to contrast the session to sim play (perfect) for the same game. Think of having the information about what game and rules you played, what bet ramps you used and how many round you played and then contrasting that to CVCX for the same session. Add to the individual session analysis the ability to do the same analysis in a cumulative manner and you will begin to benefit from the metrics that can be produced regarding your performance.

    This process would be very time consuming if it had to be done in the manner suggested, so I built a system that provides the analysis, if you have the input data required. It is certainly not as simple as many lone wolf players are willing to commit the energy to but then they can not, and should not, ask this type of esoteric question. No pain, no gain.

    To simplify collecting the information, the player enters some cryptic information while in the casinos into a private messaging app and the data is then transferred at a later time to the tracking/analysis system.

    Understanding the benefit from this type of oversight can only be appreciated when you have collected the data and can review it in retrospect. I will not go into the specific "metrics of interest and value" as that would lead to this becoming the length of a Three post. PM me if you want to talk about such.

    Again, many "choose" not to do this type of record keeping and analysis and that's OK. But I have found the information and insight provided is well worth the effort.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #8


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    This is an example of cumulative data for a player produced from the session data collected. It is, by no means, all the graphs and analysis reports available.

    You have to determine if you are willing to collect the data required that will provide this type of retrospective view.

    Stealth

    CUMULATIVE PLAYER TOTALS
    TC
    Actual 7,063
    Sessions 56
    Rounds 3,436
    Rounds per Session 61
    Avg Session Advantage 1.32%
    Session Win % 54%
    Average Session Win $ 912
    Average Session Loss $ (781)
    $ Win/Loss Ratio 1.2
    Probabilty of Results 69%
    EXPECTATION
    EV 3,439
    EV Per Round 1.00
    Actual as % of EV 205%
    Average Bet 75
    RISK ANALYSIS
    ZScore 0.48
    N0 @ 2 SD 65,536
    Standard Deviation 7,510
    SD per Round 128
    1 - SD - Low (4,071)
    1 - SD - High 10,950
    2 - SD - Low (11,582)
    2 - SD - High 18,460

    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by trucker View Post
    M.P. I have a question. I bought these little tally counters. They have a little clear band kind of like a watch band but small, so it fits around your finger. I had every intention of using them to count rounds per hour
    I would advise against using any mechanical device at the table for any purpose whatsoever.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I would advise against using any mechanical device at the table for any purpose whatsoever.
    Gronbog's warning is pretty soft. Though unintended as it may be, you're in for a shit load of trouble if you get caught. Don't use any mechanical device for any purpose.

  11. #11


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    I
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Gronbog's warning is pretty soft. Though unintended as it may be, you're in for a shit load of trouble if you get caught. Don't use any mechanical device for any purpose.
    Includes Electrical and electronic devices as well.
    http://blackjackforumonline.com/content/duffyii.htm

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I would advise against using any mechanical device at the table for any purpose whatsoever.
    Isn't a cell phone a mechanical device? I see people using them all the time while seated at a table?

    Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

  13. #13


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    I've seen people use cell phones away from the tables; never at them.
    Dealers & PCs tell people that they can't use phones at the tables.

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