A recreational counter on track..

[ZeeBabar]

I am a recreational counter (if I call myself an AP, some will howl!) who uses HiLO, I-18 plus a couple, plays mostly $25 min DD (now 65%, used to be higher) and 35% red chipping ($10 min tables), spreading 1-6 on DD (play all), 2 x $10 to 2 x $90 on 6D but wonging out at TC-2. My goal is $10k a year, playing roughly 30 hours a month. I dont understand much or the stuff (N-score, Score, etc., etc.), dont use software, dont practice, sometimes double for less, never double A,8, make other mistakes. This is my 4th year. My worst year, I lost $5k, best year I won $28k (calender year).

I just tallied up my year to date on this date, 5/31. That is, 5 months.

So far, won $9255 with expenses $3980 (air/gas, room/food). I spent 162 hours at the tables. My hourly rate after deducting expenses is a bit over $32 per hour. Given that I am not a pro, actually enjoy the casino environment and have time on my hand, this is acceptable. I have cut back on DD and have become more conservative after being placed on OSN and not wanting to lose all the local places

I can do better but I am my worst enemy. I often balk at putting out more than $200 on any one hand (despite a $64k BR). I seem to not want to risk going below $60k BR.

I dont know why I am posting this but often I have learned from the ridicule I receive, especially when the ridicule is mixed in with suggestions.

[Freightman]

Zee
You're heading for a fall. I've commented on this before. Your expense ratio is 43% of gross revenue. Your expense per hour is a full 20% higher than when you last brought up this subject - now 24.56 per hour played. Couple of bad trips, you'll be in the shitter, lamenting the bad run of cards. Expenses are pretty linear. Revenue, not necessarily so, though it is in theory.

I've told you before to up your spread which will create better gross margin, which will give you a better multiple of earnings to expense, which will help cushion those bad trips. Last year was not particularly good for me, though I doubled your gross on about half the hours. This year, I'm at half your hours with slightly over 4x the revenue, with and expense factor a full 1/3 less than yours - though expense per hour is roughly $4.00 per hour more - all equating to about 6.6%.

Risk is a necessity. Intelligent risk will drive you forward. Of course you can do better - you simply choose not to.

[Sharky]

... This year, I'm at half your hours with slightly over 4x the revenue, ....

hhmmmmm.....that's $37,020 (4x$9255) in only 81 hours (162/2)....for $457 hourly...i'll call bull shit on that!

[Freightman]

hhmmmmm.....that's $37,020 (4x$9255) in only 81 hours (162/2)....for $457 hourly...i'll call bull shit on that!

You're right. Revenue is a slice more, hours short by 6, but close enough for arguments sake. Why would you call bullshit?
Increase your win percentage. Reduce your per dollar loss - absolutely amazing what it does to your hourly. No losing trips this year.

[Sharky]

You're right. Revenue is a slice more, hours short by 6, but close enough for arguments sake. Why would you call bullshit?
Increase your win percentage. Reduce your per dollar loss - absolutely amazing what it does to your hourly. No losing trips this year.

Gambler for sure np...witnessed 5x more in 1 night, but ap play?.....i thought you were a conservative (longevity) green chipper...unit & spread?

[Freightman]

Gambler for sure np...witnessed 5x more in 1 night, but ap play?.....i thought you were a conservative (longevity) green chipper...unit & spread?

Essentially, youre right, I tend to be conservative. I've been on long term burners before with very high win rates, a loss percentage rate equating to what I'm at right now, though tempered by an average dollar loss which actually exceeded my average dollar win. My average win right now is actually lower than it has been, though not by much. A factor in the stats are low loss rate- the big huge enormous issue being the average dollar loss which is way way down. The cumulative effect is staggering.

Think about it. play around with your numbers. Increase your win rate by 10 points. Reduce your average dollar loss by 10,20,30,40%. Measure the impact.

Two additional points. The first is, can I maintain. The second is - Yes - I'm worried about my main haunts, but I won't lose on purpose.

[Ryemo]

hhmmmmm.....that's $37,020 (4x$9255) in only 81 hours (162/2)....for $457 hourly...i'll call bull shit on that!

I’m not sure why you think this is not achievable. Freightman didn’t say his EV was 37K; he said the 37K was his AV. Ever heard of variance? I was up 90K in late April after 120 hrs of play. I’ve taken a 20K slide since that point. In the short term, one or two trips with big results can put you way over or way under EV, and a hundred or two hundred hours is nothing. You also never asked him what stakes he was playing too.

[Freightman]

I’m not sure why you think this is not achievable. Freightman didn’t say his EV was 37K; he said the 37K was his AV. Ever heard of variance? I was up 90K in late April after 120 hrs of play. I’ve taken a 20K slide since that point. In the short term, one or two trips with big results can put you way over or way under EV, and a hundred or two hundred hours is nothing. You also never asked him what stakes he was playing too.

So, 150 hours ytd with 70k win ytd, equates to 466 an hour. Sounds like you're over EV too. We should compare notes, as in ramps, spread, approach etc. But I prefer to keep those actuals off the board.

[Ryemo]

So, 150 hours ytd with 70k win ytd, equates to 466 an hour. Sounds like you're over EV too. We should compare notes, as in ramps, spread, approach etc. But I prefer to keep those actuals off the board.

Close. I think I’m around 160 hrs and up 71K ish. I haven’t totaled everything in my spreadsheets yet. And yes, way over EV. Probably by 30K or more. Feel free to PM me. Discord is also a good way to reach me.

[Dbs6582]

hhmmmmm.....that's $37,020 (4x$9255) in only 81 hours (162/2)....for $457 hourly...i'll call bull shit on that!

Yeah, we’re kind in the same camp on this one. I’ve been calling bullshit on quite a few of his posts, even though I don’t use that language.

Whenever someone has to constantly brag and make it about himself, I question their accomplishments. ZeeBarba was asking a question, and Freightman turned it into a discussion about his great accomplishments. If you ever get in a debate with Freightman and he’s losing (which is most the time), he’ll start bragging about how he’s won more money than you, as if this has any relevance to the debate.

Btw, have you heard about Freightman’s exploits on splitting 10s? Bosox has seen it and he claims it’s pretty impressive. Maybe it’s all his 10 splitting that is generating his incredible hourly win rate.

[Freightman]

Yeah, we’re kind in the same camp on this one. I’ve been calling bullshit on quite a few of his posts, even though I don’t use that language.

Whenever someone has to constantly brag and make it about himself, I question their accomplishments. ZeeBarba was asking a question, and Freightman turned it into a discussion about his great accomplishments. If you ever get in a debate with Freightman and he’s losing (which is most the time), he’ll start bragging about how he’s won more money than you, as if this has any relevance to the debate.

Btw, have you heard about Freightman’s exploits on splitting 10s? Bosox has seen it and he claims it’s pretty impressive. Maybe it’s all his 10 splitting that is generating his incredible hourly win rate.

Only a matter of time before the Douche Bag appeared. Go hustle tokes. Then, go play in traffic.

[Dbs6582]

Only a matter of time before the Douche Bag appeared. Go hustle tokes. Then, go play in traffic.

Yeah, I’m back. I still don’t understand why you and Three think I work for the casinos. I haven’t given any advice that will help the casinos. In fact, it’s just the opposite. I’ve come from a more logic place than most APs, where I try to understand the casino’s mindset so I can stay alive. I’ve survived at my local casinos for over 10 years. That’s more than most APs can say. I believe my approach is more in line with Ian Anderson. He treats casinos as a friend, rather than his enemy. He tips like me and gives the casino employees gifts. Have you ever read his book? Maybe you could learn something.

The person I think is really a casino spy is Joe748. His advice and his accomplishments will generate a lot of revenue for the casinos. This is the message the casinos want people to hear. The game is so easy to beat, you can win $400,000 in your first year; all you need to do is spend a little time learning how to count and spread from table min to max. Anybody that knows anything about casinos, knows this is the quickest way to be shown the door.

A spy is someone who acts like the enemy and gets away with it. I’m doing the opposite. Joe748 is doing excately what a casino spy would do. Have you ever thought about? You’re supposed to be “the smartest guy in the room”. Do you really understand how a real spy works? Read some spy novels. Maybe they will clue you in.

[Ryemo]

The person I think is really a casino spy is Joe748. His advice and his accomplishments will generate a lot of revenue for the casinos. This is the message the casinos want people to hear. The game is so easy to beat, you can win $400,000 in your first year; all you need to do is spend a little time learning how to count and spread from table min to max. Anybody that knows anything about casinos, knows this is the quickest way to be shown the door.

A spy is someone who acts like the enemy and gets away with it. I’m doing the opposite. Joe748 is doing excately what a casino spy would do. Have you ever thought about? You’re supposed to be “the smartest guy in the room”. Do you really understand how a real spy works? Read some spy novels. Maybe they will clue you in.

Sigh... I thought I mentioned this before, but I’ll say it again. I know Joe748 personally. I’ve met him numerous times. I’ve personally seen his OSN profile... it’s as long as a Steven King novel. I’ve seen him play. Joe748 is absolutely not a casino spy. I’m not sure how else I could word it. He doesn’t even post on forums anymore! What could possibly be he motive?!? The only reason he made an appearance here was to respond to the GWAE post I made.

And yes, I know you have a hard time believing his story. I’ve only seen you mention it a hundred times.