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Thread: Blackjack Bankroll Recommendation Question

  1. #53


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    hey bughousemaster,

    i dont know the math to answer ur OP, but maybe this link will help somewhat: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/ .

    Regarding what I honestly think about your approach to blackjack, i think these ppl are right. They base their game on betting larger in positive expected value situations, not on betting systems or streaks (which they (as well as I) believe is a very common fallacy that ton of ppl fall into traps for). we believe streaks are random and every hand is an independent event (previous results don't affect current or future results). imo humans by nature have selective memory and are result-oriented so it's very easy to be bias and in turn try to predict the future after a streaky situation (when in reality, it's just all random, and the future is just as random).

    the gist of it is the house has a theoretical advantage of anywhere from like 0.2 to 0.7% and there is no betting system in the world that is able to conquer that. all short term results are due to variance. the result or odds of winning/losing on ur current hand or next hand is not going to change due to a winning/losing streak. this link will explain that in details: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ .

    also if ur up a ton lifetime, u probably

    a) book many small wins and few huge losses. it may take longer to regress towards the mean (lose),
    b) have selective memory and delude/forget (find reasons not to remember or blame something such as alcohol/poor concentration) losing sessions,
    c) mingle other income with blackjack losses (so u can't accurately say whether ur up or down)

    im guessing u are likely experiencing a lot of positive variance lately, but as u play more and more, u'll regress to whatever the theoretical advantage for the house is. I suggest if ur not doing so already to record all ur results to get the actual amount ur up or down. if ur not recording and tangle ur gambling expenses, it's impossible to even gauge the ballpark of what ur up or down as time goes by.

    However i do think this forum is overly critiquing your play and giving u a lot of shit instead of answering the question you asked simply because they are too concentrated on trying to tell you that ur system will not win in the long run (100,000 hands for instance). i agree with them, but i do think some of the stuff this forum said is pretty snarky and some ppl just think they're smarter just because they understand a concept better after being spoon fed non-intuitive information from other ppl/sources and seeing/experiencing variance in action over time with informed eyes. it's like bashing someone for being religious or having some sort of superstitious belief, but so what, we all have areas where we have misinformation or are born into and take for granted without any educated research. anyhow this is a community which base its play on math and math is never wrong! they actually have concrete math to back up their preferred choice of play (card counting) which is all over the internet. if u dont agree with them, i dont think u'll get along with this forum.

    it all starts with expected value and standard deviation. i think once u learn how those 2 works in blackjack, then some of the things said on this forum will make more and more sense to you.

    anyways, it'll probably take a lot of unwiring prior information u've acquired so im not sure if u'll ever choose to agree with this forum on anything if u choose to participate more. the style they play is also probably going to be counter intuitive for u (for example if they lose 9/10 hands but count is high, they will still bet as big as they can according to math). the concept we believe is every hand is an independent event. the other concept we believe is high counts mean the edge is in our favor. the concept we don't believe is this is a cold deck. most ppl who gamble for fun have a ton of misinformation on how gambling and variance works. im sure a lot of ppl u talk blackjack or strategy with probably have done very little research on gambling themselves (which is most ppl who gamble for fun), so im sure their opinions on the laws of gambling will differ from the opinions here.

    Anyhow was kinda surprised to see you post! Played you a bunch of bughouse on icc and irl back in the days!

    ps) if i've said anything wrong, inaccurate, or misleading, feel free to correct me (im not a math or statistician)
    Last edited by FishBear; 06-05-2018 at 04:02 AM.

  2. #54


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Gronbog... a 10% profit is not much....
    That's not the part that I find unlikely. Its the part about being ahead by 10% of your session bankroll 92% of the time.

  3. #55


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    While I am heterosexual, I strongly object to derogatory statements.
    EDIT THIS, or present something dumb to defend your choice of words.
    Flash, I stuck up for you the other day. The Dipshit said you were full of shit. I said you weren't even half full.
    With friends like that, who needs enemas

  4. #56


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Redcated

    Do you really think we care that you're good at the trumpet and chess? This is a forum about blackjack. If you're so smart, why don't you actually learn to count? You already know basic strategy for crying out loud, for someone like you it should be an absolute breeze... just saying. If you were truly intelligent you would have already been doing so when risking relatively large sums of money, and I don't think you would seem to be so insecure about your intelligence and need to constantly try to impress us...? If that's what you're trying to do. Because trying to impress us about with a couple totally unrelated skills you have whilist simultaneously showing clear ignorance about the exact topic of the forum you are on with EXPERTS in the field is not going to go well...

    What do you expect, that actual pros on this forum are not going to correct you (out of good intentions), but rather praise you for your blackjack brilliance?? For crying out loud, you play a mediocre, losing strategy that requires little effort. I think you are slightly deluded, and so arrogant that you cannot possibly fathom being wrong about anything, or even entertain the idea that your good winnings were due to variance or luck, rather than your sheer brilliance.
    Last edited by Norm; 06-06-2018 at 04:34 AM. Reason: Redact quote

  5. #57


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I don't think he kinda the criticism, it's how it's done. He does not know that full time pros develop a nasty streak.

  6. #58


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by FishBear View Post
    hey bughousemaster,

    i dont know the math to answer ur OP, but maybe this link will help somewhat: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/ .

    Regarding what I honestly think about your approach to blackjack, i think these ppl are right. They base their game on betting larger in positive expected value situations, not on betting systems or streaks (which they (as well as I) believe is a very common fallacy that ton of ppl fall into traps for). we believe streaks are random and every hand is an independent event (previous results don't affect current or future results). imo humans by nature have selective memory and are result-oriented so it's very easy to be bias and in turn try to predict the future after a streaky situation (when in reality, it's just all random, and the future is just as random).

    the gist of it is the house has a theoretical advantage of anywhere from like 0.2 to 0.7% and there is no betting system in the world that is able to conquer that. all short term results are due to variance. the result or odds of winning/losing on ur current hand or next hand is not going to change due to a winning/losing streak. this link will explain that in details: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ .

    also if ur up a ton lifetime, u probably

    a) book many small wins and few huge losses. it may take longer to regress towards the mean (lose),
    b) have selective memory and delude/forget (find reasons not to remember or blame something such as alcohol/poor concentration) losing sessions,
    c) mingle other income with blackjack losses (so u can't accurately say whether ur up or down)

    im guessing u are likely experiencing a lot of positive variance lately, but as u play more and more, u'll regress to whatever the theoretical advantage for the house is. I suggest if ur not doing so already to record all ur results to get the actual amount ur up or down. if ur not recording and tangle ur gambling expenses, it's impossible to even gauge the ballpark of what ur up or down as time goes by.

    However i do think this forum is overly critiquing your play and giving u a lot of shit instead of answering the question you asked simply because they are too concentrated on trying to tell you that ur system will not win in the long run (100,000 hands for instance). i agree with them, but i do think some of the stuff this forum said is pretty snarky and some ppl just think they're smarter just because they understand a concept better after being spoon fed non-intuitive information from other ppl/sources and seeing/experiencing variance in action over time with informed eyes. it's like bashing someone for being religious or having some sort of superstitious belief, but so what, we all have areas where we have misinformation or are born into and take for granted without any educated research. anyhow this is a community which base its play on math and math is never wrong! they actually have concrete math to back up their preferred choice of play (card counting) which is all over the internet. if u dont agree with them, i dont think u'll get along with this forum.

    it all starts with expected value and standard deviation. i think once u learn how those 2 works in blackjack, then some of the things said on this forum will make more and more sense to you.

    anyways, it'll probably take a lot of unwiring prior information u've acquired so im not sure if u'll ever choose to agree with this forum on anything if u choose to participate more. the style they play is also probably going to be counter intuitive for u (for example if they lose 9/10 hands but count is high, they will still bet as big as they can according to math). the concept we believe is every hand is an independent event. the other concept we believe is high counts mean the edge is in our favor. the concept we don't believe is this is a cold deck. most ppl who gamble for fun have a ton of misinformation on how gambling and variance works. im sure a lot of ppl u talk blackjack or strategy with probably have done very little research on gambling themselves (which is most ppl who gamble for fun), so im sure their opinions on the laws of gambling will differ from the opinions here.

    Anyhow was kinda surprised to see you post! Played you a bunch of bughouse on icc and irl back in the days!

    ps) if i've said anything wrong, inaccurate, or misleading, feel free to correct me (im not a math or statistician)

    Why was my post deleted? I simply praised FISHBEAR for finally speaking the truth instead of these mindless punks who think their shit dont stink!

  7. #59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Why was my post deleted? I simply praised FISHBEAR for finally speaking the truth instead of these mindless punks who think their shit dont stink!
    Might have been the homophobic references at the end, or possibly your non sensical commentary.

    I'll take odds on how long you'll last under this handle. Though against the rules, you can reappear as jerkwater.

  8. #60


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I don't think he kinda the criticism, it's how it's done. He does not know that full time pros develop a nasty streak.
    Zee
    There's a place for your useless comment. This fellow us non deserving of your attempted helping hand. Also, learn not to bite the hand that feeds.

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