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Thread: Blackjack Bankroll Recommendation Question

  1. #1


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    Blackjack Bankroll Recommendation Question

    Howdy, Blackjack Peeps!

    Longtime player here, but been awhile since I posted anything. Wife just turned 30 so had a grand surprise party for her and been busy with life in general.

    Anyway, my question is regarding general blackjack casino gambling, not Tournament play. I read before that in order to not go broke at a 4-hour session 95% of time, it is recommended that one's bankroll is 40x their average bet, and to not go broke 90% of time, 30x is recommended. My question is, where is documented, mathematical evidence of this? Because lately I've been averaging $75 but only have $1K bankroll while the wifey averages ~$35-40 and her bankroll is $500 and we won in both recent trips we had, $500 most recently, and about $2K at Beau Rivage and L'. I would think having 20x average bet would be good at least 75% based on the above %'s, but curious to know the exact % just bec I dont want to bring over $2K ($2250 to be exact!) playing $75 average!

    Thanks in advance.

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  3. #3


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    tHANKS and what would I put in the fields?

    Those fields are confusing as hell...

    and i was wanting to find actual documentation of 40x average for 95% of the time and 30x average bet good for 90% of time.... stuff like dat

  4. #4


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    Your question is an often asked one. To deduce an answer is not quite as simple as you may think.

    You have not provided enough information to provide an answer. To do the calculations we must know the game rules, your counting system and indexes, and the number of rounds you are playing (hours played?) and your bet ramp by true count. From that information we can get your average bet, your win/loss rate, your standard deviation. Then we can determine your risk of ruin (RoR).

    Making assumptions from reading between the lines, you may be playing without counting and perhaps without basic strategy. If so, then you are not playing a winning game and have a 100% chance of losing all of your money in the long run. In the short term, you may win or lose based on the standard deviation that results from you betting and playing decisions.

    I know this does not answer your question but hopefully will allow you to re-frame the question with enough data to give you a meaningful response.

    Stealth
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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    As a simple rule of thumb, as I am asked this very often,

    I am obliged to respond as follows:

    Depending on table conditions a "good" starting bankroll

    is roughly 1,400 units for poor conditions and 400 units for the best games.

    Between these lies what one needs. A "unit" is the minimum bet that you can make.

    This leads to a logical question as to a bet "ramp" or "spread" To wit I describe how to

    set a max bet at a 2% win rate and work
    backward from there.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Your question is an often asked one. To deduce an answer is not quite as simple as you may think.

    You have not provided enough information to provide an answer. To do the calculations we must know the game rules, your counting system and indexes, and the number of rounds you are playing (hours played?) and your bet ramp by true count. From that information we can get your average bet, your win/loss rate, your standard deviation. Then we can determine your risk of ruin (RoR).

    Making assumptions from reading between the lines, you may be playing without counting and perhaps without basic strategy. If so, then you are not playing a winning game and have a 100% chance of losing all of your money in the long run. In the short term, you may win or lose based on the standard deviation that results from you betting and playing decisions.

    I know this does not answer your question but hopefully will allow you to re-frame the question with enough data to give you a meaningful response.

    Stealth
    Thanks for your reply.

    I actually dont count indeed, however, I play flawless BS and even employ offensive/defensive hand interaction as often as I can and implement the Mag7 hands which increases my odds by a whopping 0.03% but because of my aggressive offensive/defensive hand interaction, am literally playing a 50/50 game or even slightly in my advantage. I do everything to my advantage except count, and I'm totally okay with that because I go to the casino to RELAX and dont want to clutter my mind on something that isn't even 100% guaranteed. You can be the best card counter in the world but still lose because when you pumped your bet up to the max you got shit cards and the dealer ended up getting that 20 or 21. But as blackjack is an extremely volatile game, I'm totally aware of this and would rather take advantage of this positive streaks that have occurred time and time again since my playing this game for the last 15 years. I've won 16 hands in a row before, 9 in a row TWICE against the same dealer (on the same night!) and have won 7+ in a session too many times to count. I'm also an experienced tournament player (won clear 2nd in a major Beau Rivage tourn) and have a solid understanding of tournament strategy as well.

    I usually play at H17, 75-80% penetration, NS (except when I'm in Vegas), double/split on any, replit aces and just want to see the math on the %'s of 40x table average for 95% chance of not being ruined, 30x average bet for 90% success, and what % of the time having 20x table average would be good for. Hope this helps.

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    Oh, and because I dont count, it's not practical for me to have anywhere close to 1400 units (nor would I ever want to even bring that much with me!) in a session since I'm never going higher than 5x of my unit size at any one time. I use Thomason Progression (and am ahead substantially lifetime) and really love the ease and simplicity especially the 4-loss Quit Point that he implements that most other progressions do not incorporate!

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    Sorry in advance for calling you out, since it was me who encouraged you to post your question here. As a rational contributor to blackjacktournaments.com, I assumed that you were playing at an advantage. Unfortunately, there is a lot of voodoo in what you have posted here and you may not get any more serious replies anyway as a result.

    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    actually dont count indeed, however, I play flawless BS and even employ offensive/defensive hand interaction as often as I can and implement the Mag7 hands which increases my odds by a whopping 0.03% but because of my aggressive offensive/defensive hand interaction, am literally playing a 50/50 game or even slightly in my advantage
    I've never heard of the Mag 7 hands. How exactly do they increase you edge by 0.03% over the mathematically correct Basic Strategy? Also, what hand interaction are you referring to?

    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    But as blackjack is an extremely volatile game, I'm totally aware of this and would rather take advantage of this positive streaks that have occurred time and time again since my playing this game for the last 15 years. I've won 16 hands in a row before, 9 in a row TWICE against the same dealer (on the same night!) and have won 7+ in a session too many times to count.
    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    I use Thomason Progression (and am ahead substantially lifetime) and really love the ease and simplicity especially the 4-loss Quit Point that he implements that most other progressions do not incorporate!
    Sorry, but using a progression with basic strategy is a losing long term strategy. I believe you when you say that you have won many sessions in a row. That's one of the characteristic results of using progressions (and why they're a valuable tournament weapon). But you will eventually experience a catastrophic session during which you either bust out, hit the table limit, or lose the nerve to bet the required amount. Over time, this will happen often enough to eclipse the many small wins you have accumulated.

    Similarly, counting may fail during individual sessions however, over time, the positive edge will eclipse those failures.

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    Its just variance. Nothing can be deduced by what the OP is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bughousemaster View Post
    mag7 hands
    w.t.f. ?

    What kind of neologism is this Bughouse MASTER?

    I am aware that "BugHouse" is a euphemism for Psychiatric Hospital.


  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Sorry in advance for calling you out, since it was me who encouraged you to post your question here. As a rational contributor to blackjacktournaments.com, I assumed that you were playing at an advantage. Unfortunately, there is a lot of voodoo in what you have posted here and you may not get any more serious replies anyway as a result.


    I've never heard of the Mag 7 hands. How exactly do they increase you edge by 0.03% over the mathematically correct Basic Strategy? Also, what hand interaction are you referring to?



    Sorry, but using a progression with basic strategy is a losing long term strategy. I believe you when you say that you have won many sessions in a row. That's one of the characteristic results of using progressions (and why they're a valuable tournament weapon). But you will eventually experience a catastrophic session during which you either bust out, hit the table limit, or lose the nerve to bet the required amount. Over time, this will happen often enough to eclipse the many small wins you have accumulated.

    Similarly, counting may fail during individual sessions however, over time, the positive edge will eclipse those failures.
    You're a counter, aren't you? Surprised you haven't heard of the Mag 7 hands, since I learned about it through Fred Renzey, a well known card counter. Check out the article here:
    http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/ar...-strategy-6010

    After reading his article it will answer your question on how it's better than the NORMAL BS. Also, offensive/defensive hand interaction is either trying to get rid of a shitty cards (i.e. 7/7 vs 2 or 3) and trying to take advantage of someone else's double down after noticing they're timid to do it themselves.... also surprised you haven't heard of this!

    Regarding hitting the table limit, It's impossible for me to ever do that since my progression is capped at 5 units nor will I ever "lose the nerve to bet the required amount" since my progression simply goes from 2-5 units! Again, I may not be a counter, but the beauty of my positive progression is that I will NEVER have to have nearly the amount of money that counters require. I like to chill and just take the normal positive streaks in BJ as they come to me!

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    w.t.f. ?

    What kind of neologism is this Bughouse MASTER?

    I am aware that "BugHouse" is a euphemism for Psychiatric Hospital.

    I pardon your ignorance. Here is my website boasting over 1M hits and ~15OO FB likes. Maybe you might learn a thing or 2 (as long as you dont start ASSuming things again, lol): www.BughouseMASTER.com

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    You're a counter, aren't you? Surprised you haven't heard of the Mag 7 hands, since I learned about it through Fred Renzey, a well known card counter. Check out the article here:
    http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/ar...-strategy-6010
    OK, so it's a weak form of card counting used to sway the decision on some close plays. Hence the tiny improvement in EV.

    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    After reading his article it will answer your question on how it's better than the NORMAL BS. Also, offensive/defensive hand interaction is either trying to get rid of a shitty cards (i.e. 7/7 vs 2 or 3) and trying to take advantage of someone else's double down after noticing they're timid to do it themselves.... also surprised you haven't heard of this!
    It's the scavenging of the double that's making the money here. How exactly do you know that the next card is going to help or hurt the double? If you're using the same kind of technique, then the effect will again be marginal on the double, and you are giving up EV on the hand you sacrifice. You would be better off just scavenging the double. I doubt that you get enough scavenging opportunities to be playing at an advantage overall.

    Quote Originally Posted by BughouseMASTER View Post
    Regarding hitting the table limit, It's impossible for me to ever do that since my progression is capped at 5 units nor will I ever "lose the nerve to bet the required amount" since my progression simply goes from 2-5 units! Again, I may not be a counter, but the beauty of my positive progression is that I will NEVER have to have nearly the amount of money that counters require. I like to chill and just take the normal positive streaks in BJ as they come to me!
    OK, you may always "complete" your progressions, but the sum of the losses of the failed ones will eventually be larger than the sum of your many small wins. This because you are not increasing your bets in response to an increased edge for those hands. The normal overall house edge of the game you are playing will assert itself over the amount of your total bets, no matter how you structure them.

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