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Thread: Do casinos really make mistakes by barring marginal counters?

  1. #1


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    Do casinos really make mistakes by barring marginal counters?

    A comment made by houyi in a recent post caught my interest. He said: “I think we can all agree casinos waste their time on at least 90% of would-be counters, for a variety of reasons.” I’m starting a new thread since I don’t want to hijack his thread in another direction.

    This thought appears to be the mainstream view in the AP community, and I couldn’t disagree more based on my experience and what I see other APs saying. I’ve always wondered why so many APs believe this.

    First my experience: I’ve played fairly extensively in various parts of the country (but not much in Vegas) for over 20 years and only seen one person backed off and barred...and that was me. From the casino perspective, it was a good move since I have a winning game. From my perspective, it obviously wasn’t a good move since I like taking money from a casino. The two casinos that backed me off got it right, the many that did not back me off got it wrong...that is from the perspective of the casino trying to return as much money as possible to their shareholders (which is why a business exists).

    I’ve also seen many young APs come through my local casinos and not get backed off. As with most APs, I can usually spot another AP within 10 to 15 mins. I’ve got to where I can most the time spot them as they are cashing in their money for chips. When I see their ramp with the first positive count, my original assumptions are confirmed. Just the other day I played with a young AP who was ramping from $10 to $500 on DD and got away with it for 2 hours before he left with a couple thousand. I know this pit crew and they aren’t the sharpest knives in the draw. If I was a pit critter, I’d have backed him off within 15 mins. Again, I’ve never seen another AP backed off and I’ve seen quite a few APs play with some pretty aggressive spreads. If anything, I think casinos are making mistakes by not backing off APs sooner to protect their business and shareholders.

    This brings me to my second point. I read comments on this site and many others on how much all the APs are making in casinos, but then they claim casinos are making mistakes when they get backed off. This makes no sense to me. If they’re playing a winning game, the casinos didn’t make a mistake by backing them off. In most states, casinos have a right to back off APs. Therefore, it’s in their interest to back off or bar APs since their business model isn’t to give money to their customers. Joe748 claims to have made $400,000 in his first year playing blackjack and many on this site believe him. If this is true, the casinos clearly weren’t doing their job. Any compentent casino should have seen he was an AP and backed him off long before he took 10s of thousands from a casino. The church team claimed to make close to 4 million (and I believe this story) from casinos but then you’ll hear them complain that casinos made mistakes by backing them off. What???

    I guess my point is I think casinos make far more mistakes by not backing off real APs with winning games sooner, than the reverse (backing off would-be counters who are really losers).

    Something else to think about. The very fear of being backed off keeps most of our spreads low and within casinos tolerance. If we weren’t afraid of being backed off, we’d be much more aggressive.

    Maybe this problem is more of a Vegas problem, where the casinos back off marginal players. I don’t know since I don’t have much experience in Vegas. But in my area, I can assure you casinos are not backing off marginal players....in fact, I don’t see them backing off anybody, even very good players.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    A comment made by houyi in a recent post caught my interest. He said: “I think we can all agree casinos waste their time on at least 90% of would-be counters, for a variety of reasons.” I’m starting a new thread since I don’t want to hijack his thread in another direction.

    This thought appears to be the mainstream view in the AP community, and I couldn’t disagree more based on my experience and what I see other APs saying. I’ve always wondered why so many APs believe this.

    First my experience: I’ve played fairly extensively in various parts of the country (but not much in Vegas) for over 20 years and only seen one person backed off and barred...and that was me. From the casino perspective, it was a good move since I have a winning game. From my perspective, it obviously wasn’t a good move since I like taking money from a casino. The two casinos that backed me off got it right, the many that did not back me off got it wrong...that is from the perspective of the casino trying to return as much money as possible to their shareholders (which is why a business exists).

    I’ve also seen many young APs come through my local casinos and not get backed off. As with most APs, I can usually spot another AP within 10 to 15 mins. I’ve got to where I can most the time spot them as they are cashing in their money for chips. When I see their ramp with the first positive count, my original assumptions are confirmed. Just the other day I played with a young AP who was ramping from $10 to $500 on DD and got away with it for 2 hours before he left with a couple thousand. I know this pit crew and they aren’t the sharpest knives in the draw. If I was a pit critter, I’d have backed him off within 15 mins. Again, I’ve never seen another AP backed off and I’ve seen quite a few APs play with some pretty aggressive spreads. If anything, I think casinos are making mistakes by not backing off APs sooner to protect their business and shareholders.

    This brings me to my second point. I read comments on this site and many others on how much all the APs are making in casinos, but then they claim casinos are making mistakes when they get backed off. This makes no sense to me. If they’re playing a winning game, the casinos didn’t make a mistake by backing them off. In most states, casinos have a right to back off APs. Therefore, it’s in their interest to back off or bar APs since their business model isn’t to give money to their customers. Joe748 claims to have made $400,000 in his first year playing blackjack and many on this site believe him. If this is true, the casinos clearly weren’t doing their job. Any compentent casino should have seen he was an AP and backed him off long before he took 10s of thousands from a casino. The church team claimed to make close to 4 million (and I believe this story) from casinos but then you’ll hear them complain that casinos made mistakes by backing them off. What???

    I guess my point is I think casinos make far more mistakes by not backing off real APs with winning games sooner, than the reverse (backing off would-be counters who are really losers).

    Something else to think about. The very fear of being backed off keeps most of our spreads low and within casinos tolerance. If we weren’t afraid of being backed off, we’d be much more aggressive.

    Maybe this problem is more of a Vegas problem, where the casinos back off marginal players. I don’t know since I don’t have much experience in Vegas. But in my area, I can assure you casinos are not backing off marginal players....in fact, I don’t see them backing off anybody, even very good players.
    Wow...I sure would like to know where your area is!!!

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Would-be counters are usually very obvious as to what their intentions are. At a non-sweaty store they don't care. At a sweaty one they get backed off. Sure it is probably a mistake, the casino should let them play to see if they get on a losing streak or see if they are even playing a winning game. But pros not being backed off sooner is definitely not something to complain about or even bring up!
    I’m not complaining about it. I guess you missed my point. I’m wondering where all these casinos are that are backing off all these marginal counters. If it’s occuring, I’ve never seen it. I’m wondering why this is the prevalent thought in the AP community? It’s not a big deal...just something I’ve never understood.

  4. #4
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No


    The "problem" is that casinos use a broad brush
    and backoff incompetent amateur cards counters.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 05-24-2018 at 06:37 AM.

  5. #5


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    Mr. Contrary
    There's more counters than we think. Casinos recognize this. Those with half a brain will let them play for a while before making a decision, which in many cases, they don't have to - why?

    Counters bust out because
    - they're properly financed but are not good enough
    - they're good enough, but are not properly financed
    - they're neither good enough or financed

    So, why bounce them.
    I would think a good chunk of this board is not properly financed, or good enough. The remainder are both good enough and financed. That doesn't account for much, especially considering that they're degrees of good enough.

  6. #6


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    Freightman - good post! The problem is most casinos don't have half a brain, and that's collectively :-)

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Mr. Contrary
    There's more counters than we think. Casinos recognize this. Those with half a brain will let them play for a while before making a decision, which in many cases, they don't have to - why?

    Counters bust out because
    - they're properly financed but are not good enough
    - they're good enough, but are not properly financed
    - they're neither good enough or financed

    So, why bounce them.
    I would think a good chunk of this board is not properly financed, or good enough. The remainder are both good enough and financed. That doesn't account for much, especially considering that they're degrees of good enough.
    Decent answer Freighman. Thanks! I think we’re on the same page here. I’ve seen many marginal counters (it’s pretty easy to see when someone is raising their bet with the count) and I’ve never seen any of them backed off. I guess I’m wondering where is this occurring? Why haven’t I seen this since I’ve been playing for 20 years.

    It seems like most of the people complaining about being backed off have a winning game. If this is the case, then from the casino’s perspective they’ve made the right move.

    This isn’t being contrary. It’s just trying to understand the mainstream AP view on this. I get that APs don’t like to be backed off. I didn’t like it either when it happened to me. But that doesn’t mean I don’t get it from the casino’s perspective.

    Btw, when I first got barred, I contacted a lawyer to see what I could do. It made no sense to me that a casino could kick me out just because I was playing with skill. When I found out they were within their rights, my views changed. I started seeing things more from their perspective and realized it was up to me to play in a way where “I get away with it”. Since I’ve changed my playing style, I have not been backed off and I’m playing a much better game now...and winning more money. Much thanks to this site...and I do get a lot out of your posts, even though I give you a hard time sometimes. It’s all meant in a good natured way.
    Last edited by Dbs6582; 05-24-2018 at 06:52 AM. Reason: Misspelled word

  8. #8


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    I agree with Freightman. You see a counter who wins and you assume the casino made a mistake. The casino sees that counter as boasting to a dozen of his friends who think they will do the same, walk into a casino with $200 in their pocket. As for the counter who walked away with the win, they see a budding addict who will eventually lose a lot of bankroll even if he walked away a winner that time you saw him.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    This thought appears to be the mainstream view in the AP community, and I couldn’t disagree more based on my experience and what I see other APs saying. I’ve always wondered why so many APs believe this.
    Because the casino spends ten times as much money trying to thwart card counters than card counters win. Less pen costs rounds per hour, which means a cut in win rate for casinos. Consulting fees to switch back and forth between the two extremes of deep pen and shallow pen in order to make changes to justify the huge fee they charge are expensive. If you play anywhere that does this you can tell when the consultant came through. Everything goes to the other extreme. The next time the consultant comes through they switch back to the original extreme. Why? Because the consultant is making changes to justify a six figure fee rather than protect the game. If that weren't true they wouldn't keep switching back and forth from the two extremes. Consultants fan the fear of APs to become the biggest AP of anyone. Imagine a guaranteed periodic 6 figure win for one visit. What do you have to do. Sell the that what you told them to do last time is costing the casino too much money. One visit you say how much the countermeasures is costing the casino in profits. The next visit you say how vulnerable the casino is to AP's by trying to maximize profits.

    Zender, the game protection expert, says to give deep pen and protect the game from true threats and not just any counter. Why? Because most counters will not be successful and will lose their BR, or as much as they are willing to lose, to the casino that lets them play. This is proven to maximize casino profits. His answer is simple. Maximize profits while protecting the game from real threats and let the army of wannabe APs lose their BR at your casino.


    ASM's are extremely expensive to rent. The increased game speed is more than offset by the rental cost. They already pay dealers who could shuffle in almost the same time. They waste a lot of time plugging the remaining cards and tops and bottoms before things go into an ASM like people have X-ray vision. They turn cards in games where the players never touch the cards and dealers simply sweep the cards. There is absolutely no opportunity to sort the cards.


    I could go on but you get the idea.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    I know this pit crew and they aren’t the sharpest knives in the draw. If I was a pit critter, I’d have backed him off within 15 mins.
    Most of the suits don't care if you win because it is not their money. What they care about is if they will get in trouble for not acting against you when you win. It is your job as an AP to make sure the suits will be comfortable letting you play. It is not that hard to do but can take some initiative.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    I guess my point is I think casinos make far more mistakes by not backing off real APs with winning games sooner, than the reverse (backing off would-be counters who are really losers).
    There are very few APs that are a threat in the US. I have heard numbers between 100 and 300 APs. The mistake the casino makes is how much money they through away because of a couple of hundred APs that are well known to begin with.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    Something else to think about. The very fear of being backed off keeps most of our spreads low and within casinos tolerance. If we weren’t afraid of being backed off, we’d be much more aggressive.
    The true threats are usually slash and burn players. Casinos are greedy and make sure they aren't whales that will be cash cows, or offer such poor games that they think the rules can't be beat. These players win or lose 6 figures most of the time before the BO they know is coming fairly quick happens. If Joe was well BRed and a slash and burn player $400K is not hard to believe. He could have almost as easily lost the same amount if he was playing games where the rules are the game protection.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    They waste a lot of time plugging the remaining cards and tops and bottoms before things go into an ASM like people have X-ray vision.
    So true . The true reason is not hard to conclude though.

  11. #11


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    I am ok with discussing counting , everything else is not a good idea. I hear people talk about the casino knows about this play and that play but they are not in a "full out assault " to look for people doing them. A good example is counting , it got so much worse after the movie 21 came out but the effects is years later . I heard European countries are very paranoid of counters in the last few years.

  12. #12


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    i've seen it in poker all the time- anyone can be disciplined when running decent or running well but how much do most people really trust the math when everything is going wrong?

    i have a friend i don't even think plays a winning bj game at his best who has been banned at places in vegas. even if he had an edge it was marginal. however once he was getting crush all counting went out the window and he would just start betting huge and basically try to martingale his way to being even.

    there are a lot more people like my friend than actual good counters.

    in the example you mentioned- going from 10 to 500 on dd of course they should be banned.
    Last edited by tomf23; 05-24-2018 at 10:17 AM.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Mr. Contrary
    There's more counters than we think. Casinos recognize this. Those with half a brain will let them play for a while before making a decision, which in many cases, they don't have to - why?

    Counters bust out because
    - they're properly financed but are not good enough
    - they're good enough, but are not properly financed
    - they're neither good enough or financed

    So, why bounce them.
    I would think a good chunk of this board is not properly financed, or good enough. The remainder are both good enough and financed. That doesn't account for much, especially considering that they're degrees of good enough.
    The casino should worry about skill, not if the player is properly financed. It logically makes no sense (for the casino) to care if a player is financed properly or not.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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