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Thread: New Member...looking to learn

  1. #1


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    New Member...looking to learn

    Hi Guys,

    I am an experienced hockey bettor who has done well for himself in the past but for various reasons have decided to move on from it and have been bitten by the blackjack bug. I am still a true novice playing only at home or on the free online games the last few months. I don't wish to put any money at risk until I feel I am ready. I've got Basic Strategy down pat but have not tried to implement any counting yet other than up and down from the deck just to get my feet wet. I figure you have to walk before you can run. My betting strategies are pretty vanilla given the previous; basically flat, when I see the dealer getting very hot I switch shoes (in a manner of speaking) or simply back off, and press when the cards are swinging my way and the dealer is weak/busting more. I know this is rudimentary but again just trying to learn the flow of the game and take things step by step.

    On that my question is with regard to doubling and splitting when in a positive phase and betting larger...I guess this would be comparable to you experienced guys when you are in a high positive count and are betting several times your base unit. I've found that I've often gotten dinged with bigger bets when doubling/splitting on low % hands...such as splitting 2's vs. a 2 or doubling A4 vs. a 4. To draw a sports betting analogy, I would only make double plays when I felt I had an additional probability of winning the game. In a situation like A4 vs a 4 where you have an extremely slim edge, it does not seem worth from a risk/reward perspective to make an already bigger bet even larger by doubling it. So basically, do you guys always double and split no matter what according to BS, or do you also take game situations and bet amounts into account in this regard?

    Further, I know there's a a lot of stuff out there but any particular literature suggestions or advice as I move forward with the game to help improve my play would be well appreciated. Thanks in advance

  2. #2
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    My first suggestion is change your handle. We already have someone we refer to as Zee. His handle is Zeebar and there are a lot here that feel less than warm and fuzzy thoughts when his name is seen.
    Quote Originally Posted by Zee View Post
    So basically, do you guys always double and split no matter what according to BS, or do you also take game situations and bet amounts into account in this regard?
    We double and split according to index plays which take into account the current deck composition for the decision at hand.

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    Ok thanks...it says I don't have permission to change anything at this point so will pick a less confusing handle as soon as I'm able.

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    Best thing to do is first change your handle. 21forme might have a heart attack if he sees another Zee.
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 05-22-2018 at 08:42 PM.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    "Zee clone! Bring out Zee clone!" from "Austin Powers"! Zee, you ask the right couple of questions and you'll be a big hit here, I'm sure...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Best thing to do is first change your handle. 21forme might have a heart attack if he sees another Zee.
    Thanks for your concern about my health, MWP.

    Award-winning economist, Steven Levitt, in "Freakonomics," showed that having an ethnic name places one at a disadvantage in life. A new member, assuming a name similar to that of a moronic troll, would probably suffer that same fate in this community.

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    Always play according to basic strategy for now. Learn to keep a running count, and convert it to a true count first.

    Then, there are "index" plays where we deviate from basic strategy, based on the count. So for example, normally you wouldn't double down on A,8 v 5, but when the count is +1 you do double.

    However, the gain from index plays is much more minimal than that from counting and varying your bets based on the count, so master that first. You can still make a good profit without using any index plays, though once you master counting, why wouldn't you learn them if they help?

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    Cheers guys...I have been reborn like the phoenix with a new handle thanks to the administrator per your suggestions.

    CountinCanadian..fellow Canuck here; appreciate the feedback. That's pretty much how I'm looking to approach things, but I do have a hard time when the bets get a bit bigger thinking playing several times your base unit is worth the risk on a play that's at even a 51.5-48.5 proposition although I guess that's where the counting aspect has an impact. I understand that mathematics involved for it overall, but the risk/reward angle tugs at my brain. However I will stick to the basic strategy and start incorporating a count and go from there. I'm not in a rush to run out to the casino so will keep trying to learn and get better. Niagara will still be there when I'm ready.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freerobby View Post
    In a situation like A4 vs a 4 where you have an extremely slim edge, it does not seem worth from a risk/reward perspective to make an already bigger bet even larger by doubling it.
    I think you are right on point here. While soft doubling A2-A6 may be technically correct (sometimes), these plays add to variance and attract attention. The average PB will raise an eyebrow when you make these plays. I don't think the tiny gain in EV is worth the attention these plays get. I've pretty much eliminated them from my game unless I'm playing very small. If you know Basic Strategy cold, just start learning a simple count and stick to BS. Play small and raise your bets when the count is positive. I would also start with single deck (if they have that where you live). IMO, the BJ Bible is "Blackjack as a Business", by Lawrence Revere, if you can find it. Good luck and keep posting your questions.

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    Learn to count first. Then betting with the count. Then add some of the most important index plays to that. You only need a little over a dozen to get over 75% of the gain from knowing all the index plays. From there you can learn all kinds of things to keep increasing the strength of your play.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freerobby View Post
    Cheers guys...I have been reborn like the phoenix with a new handle thanks to the administrator per your suggestions.

    CountinCanadian..fellow Canuck here; appreciate the feedback. That's pretty much how I'm looking to approach things, but I do have a hard time when the bets get a bit bigger thinking playing several times your base unit is worth the risk on a play that's at even a 51.5-48.5 proposition although I guess that's where the counting aspect has an impact. I understand that mathematics involved for it overall, but the risk/reward angle tugs at my brain. However I will stick to the basic strategy and start incorporating a count and go from there. I'm not in a rush to run out to the casino so will keep trying to learn and get better. Niagara will still be there when I'm ready.
    Good to hear man.

    Yes, knowing it's a 52/48 split on a hand in your favour can make it hard to bet big. But you have to understand that blackjack is a long term game, if you want to win. Imagine you could flip a coin, which was very slightly unbalanced, and landed on heads 51% of the time.

    If you bet on heads over and over, you would be guaranteed to make money in the long run, and have an easy path to becoming a rich man. That being said, you're not going to throw huge amounts of money on it right away, because there's still a 49% chance you'll lose, and you don't want to go broke! You'll bet as much as you can afford to, while still being able to withstand the negative swings. You won't want to bet $1 on each flip either, because you'll barely make any profit from that.

    This is why ROR (risk of ruin) is important. It's essentially the percentage chance that you will go broke, and lose all of your money, before doubling it. Serious players always caluclate this and size their bets accordingly, depending on how much risk they want to tolerate, but still keeping their chance of going broke low.

    Don't worry about that at all for now, that's something for when you master the basics. For now, just follow a small bet spread and get your skills down. Maybe spread $5 -$15 or whatever you're comfortable with once you first get decent at counting. But remember, if you don't want to bet bigger when you have the edge, you're never going to make up for the money lost playing when the house has the edge, and will only lose money in the long run.

  12. #12


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    "This is why ROR (risk of ruin) is important. It's essentially the percentage chance that you will go broke, and lose all of your money, before doubling it."

    NOT before doubling it. Just lose it all. Period.

    Don

  13. #13


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    Okay Don thank you! Though if you have a low ROR to begin with, say 1%, once you double your BR, keeping the same betting ramp, I assume that it would now be almost 0?

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