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Thread: Ace tracking

  1. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by chucky baby View Post
    Please explain why keying in less than 10 aces risks over-betting or under-betting. Don't discourage learning the most powerful bj skill.

    Chucky Baby
    If you are already experienced in STing and then trying sequencing, you do better because you already some idea of what you are doing.

    A newbie who memorises 9-10 sequences will not intially grasp the kind of variance found in tracking/sequencing. For example, key cards and aces often stay intact not retaining playable gaps (missed opportunities). On the other extreme, a newbie may also find it problematic to correctly recognise key cards.

    Say, you see your six key cards - 5D, 8S, 10D, 4D, 4S, KH - all on the felt on a given round within playable gaps. Each key is about 1-3 cards apart from one another. There may or may not be an ace.

    Does it mean 2 or 3 aces are going to follow? How many boxes to spread? For how much? What if all these cards are false keys? Have you already observed more of these cards being dealt in last rounds? Finally, if there was already a missed ace, what would you do? Expect one more? May be two? If yes, where exactly?

    The above example is just one of many possibilities when you try to sequence 10 or fewer aces.

    SD and DD games are somewhat better for beginners.

    6D/8D games are good for practice before a newbie actually starts playing.

  2. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by chucky baby View Post
    This is either misinformation or, more seriously, disinformation. Don't discourage learning the most powerful bj skill.

    Chucky Baby
    I didn't discourage skill learning. I discouraged following certain pieces of information that is dated in 2018.

    First, there is only one book that specifically covers the topic of Ace tracking (Ace Prediction) published in 2004. Most ace sequencers are now senior folks who mainly played SD/2D/4D games. The conditions were quite different, hence memorising 10 sequences or fewer were novel and great.

    Second, these books and articles by seniors will tell you that the advantage of catching a tracked ace (as first card on your hand) is 51 or 52 percent. This is almost 50 times higher than an advantage of card counters (1-2 percent). Do you really think that is the case in practice under today's conditions? Now that brings me to my third point.

    One can only achieve an advantage of 52 percent in hypothetical scenarios. Some of them may be pulled off in real life. But all of them require dedication and hard work. Remember, we are looking at long run profit -
    not just few aces that you may be able to catch in a month.

    One way is as I mentioned. Memorise all ace sequences that you could see during first shoe. This would later reduce false identification of keys and prevent loss of a few larger losing bets that won't catch an ace in the next shoe. Any losing bet saved may sometimes add more to your advantage than what you gain from catching an occasional ace on a maximum bet.

    Card counting is more of a science. Ace tracking is more of an art. There are other ways to catch an ace too. Catch all aces you want, just be careful before you throw thousands of dollars in slot machines hoping to catch an ace.

  3. #23


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    Thank you all. Now the situation is more clear.
    I'm a newbie and I'm just learning this technique.
    Probably i will not find the proper shuffle conditions to get a real advantage at my Casinó (i live close to Campione, italy ) but it will increase my knowledge of BJ for sure and the feeling with this game. This is fine for me, at this point.
    First of all , i will find the book above
    Last edited by chaos sequence; 05-17-2018 at 07:54 AM.

  4. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tassie View Post
    I didn't discourage skill learning. I discouraged following certain pieces of information that is dated in 2018.

    First, there is only one book that specifically covers the topic of Ace tracking (Ace Prediction) published in 2004. Most ace sequencers are now senior folks who mainly played SD/2D/4D games. The conditions were quite different, hence memorising 10 sequences or fewer were novel and great.

    Second, these books and articles by seniors will tell you that the advantage of catching a tracked ace (as first card on your hand) is 51 or 52 percent. This is almost 50 times higher than an advantage of card counters (1-2 percent). Do you really think that is the case in practice under today's conditions? Now that brings me to my third point.

    One can only achieve an advantage of 52 percent in hypothetical scenarios. Some of them may be pulled off in real life. But all of them require dedication and hard work. Remember, we are looking at long run profit -
    not just few aces that you may be able to catch in a month.

    One way is as I mentioned. Memorise all ace sequences that you could see during first shoe. This would later reduce false identification of keys and prevent loss of a few larger losing bets that won't catch an ace in the next shoe. Any losing bet saved may sometimes add more to your advantage than what you gain from catching an occasional ace on a maximum bet.

    Card counting is more of a science. Ace tracking is more of an art. There are other ways to catch an ace too. Catch all aces you want, just be careful before you throw thousands of dollars in slot machines hoping to catch an ace.
    Tassie, there are so many incorrect statements in the above quote I don't know where to start. I personally know the guy who wrote the book on Ace Prediction. Unfortunately he is not a mathematician and got some things completely wrong...and was duly trashed by Snyder. I have been training and bankrolling ace-tracking teams for decades..as has Tommy Hyland (Hall of Fame) and others. Catching aces is not hypothetical. Accuracy depends somewhat on shuffles but not entirely. Advantage from this technique depends on accuracy, hit rate and rules in force (HE). Ace tracking is no more an art than any form of card counting. The main difference is that there is no mental arithmetic involved in ace tracking...just a good memory system.

  5. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by chucky baby View Post
    Tassie, there are so many incorrect statements in the above quote I don't know where to start. I personally know the guy who wrote the book on Ace Prediction. Unfortunately he is not a mathematician and got some things completely wrong...and was duly trashed by Snyder. I have been training and bankrolling ace-tracking teams for decades..as has Tommy Hyland (Hall of Fame) and others. Catching aces is not hypothetical. Accuracy depends somewhat on shuffles but not entirely. Advantage from this technique depends on accuracy, hit rate and rules in force (HE). Ace tracking is no more an art than any form of card counting. The main difference is that there is no mental arithmetic involved in ace tracking...just a good memory system.
    Is it better to focus on Ace tracking only (If there are the suitable conditions ) instead of regular card counting, or better to do both always?

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaos sequence View Post
    Is it better to focus on Ace tracking only (If there are the suitable conditions ) instead of regular card counting, or better to do both always?
    The value of an ace and thereby the amount you should bet is based on what cards surround it. If you aren't tracking the cards an ace gets married into then a generic bet is made.

  7. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The value of an ace and thereby the amount you should bet is based on what cards surround
    it. If you aren't tracking the cards an ace gets married into then a generic bet is made.


    Yes -- when I did a little teamwork Ace Tracking I would play the middle spots
    and my Locator would be at the two spots at3rd base. I performed as a
    spotter

    and I would hand off the T.C. for the first deck when my partner returned in time
    for the first bet. Of course, if it sucked I would count [separeately] the 2nd and 3rd
    deck of the six, so I could hand off a segment that is TC > +2.


    As Three said above, we needed to pair up those Aces with some Faces.
    In this
    case all I needed was to know the density of Face Cards per deck.

    "Easy
    Peasee"


  8. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by chaos sequence View Post
    Is it better to focus on Ace tracking only (If there are the suitable conditions ) instead of regular card counting, or better to do both always?
    The ideal is to play with a partner. You register the keys, he retrieves the keys to know when an ace is expected. Re. card counting at the same time, do it if you can count on your fingers, etc for additional betting action whilst waiting for the aces. BUT do not card count on the 1st 2 boxes because the "ace depletion" syndrome takes away your count's advantage. As far as the count affecting the ace advantage, it is negligible for all except the most extreme negative counts. Remember the 52% advantage of an ace is the AVERAGE advantage of that ace when paired up with any other card.
    If you want more info, give me your email address and I will respond.

    Ace tracking is the Creme de la Creme of bj skills.

  9. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by chucky baby View Post
    The ideal is to play with a partner. You register the keys, he retrieves the keys to know when an ace is expected. Re. card counting at the same time, do it if you can count on your fingers, etc for additional betting action whilst waiting for the aces. BUT do not card count on the 1st 2 boxes because the "ace depletion" syndrome takes away your count's advantage. As far as the count affecting the ace advantage, it is negligible for all except the most extreme negative counts. Remember the 52% advantage of an ace is the AVERAGE advantage of that ace when paired up with any other card.
    If you want more info, give me your email address and I will respond.

    Ace tracking is the Creme de la Creme of bj skills.
    Would you please contact me at [email protected]?

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