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Thread: Books on Sports Betting

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    Books on Sports Betting

    New Jersey will most likely have legal sports betting in time for the beginning of the NFL season and the World Series. I know nothing about sports betting and I want to learn about it. I have an undergrad degree in math and I took some probability and statistics courses. Please recommend some good books or other references on sports betting 101. Can a casual sports bettor get an edge against the sports book? Thanks in advance.

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    What company that not major players in sport gambling that is listed on a exchanger will be the winners. Any small cap companies, OTC or penny stock will be big winner in sport betting.

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    In sports betting the good opportunities are from exploiting misperceptions of the public. The line is driven by the public perception to maximize the profits for the book. When the public perception is really off opportunity exists. Sharps will pounce on these opportunities at some point and cause a line correction. Often in the early football season people bet according to who the team was last year. If you can determine the teams that changed the most from last year you can find the teams that are the best to bet on or against. It can take most of the season for this trend to compensate for who the teams are now.

    Dan Gordon has some useful stuff for spotting opportunity.

    https://www.amazon.com/Beat-Sports-B.../dp/B000SSR3UE

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    Last Season someone ... [was it Norm or Don?] gave an NFL tip that was awesome.

    The scheduled NFL game had a normal-looking Over/Under.
    The issue was that there were high-wind and heavy rain warnings.

    The "under" was an awesome bet. The Final Score never so much as
    approached the "over"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    In sports betting the good opportunities are from exploiting misperceptions of the public. The line is driven by the public perception to maximize the profits for the book.
    I disagree.
    Misperceptions of the general public move lines and generate opportunities in big events.
    A perfect example of that was the Mayweather McGregor fight.
    Another excellent example was the QF match between Ireland and Argentina in the last Rugby World Cup (probably one of the worst conceived lines in sport betting history).
    Although it is true that those particular bets are opportunities, the number of plays are going to be very few.
    People who truly make a living from sport betting need to make many bets (in my case in average I have between 80-100 plays per week, depeding on the number of tournaments being played). Those bets are almost always made in markets (or matches) that have very little line movement.

    Good opportunities dont come from what you said (those are isolated events) they come from developing a model or a betting thesis that will allow you to determine winning probabilities that can consistently analyze every single match and allow to determine when a line has value and when it doesnt.
    Only then you will have a system that will allow you to analyze a massive amount of events and give you a consistant long term winning strategy that actually generates a fluid and positive cash flow.
    Then there's sport betting exchanges, which is a whole different thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    I disagree.
    Misperceptions of the general public move lines and generate opportunities in big events.
    A perfect example of that was the Mayweather McGregor fight.
    Another excellent example was the QF match between Ireland and Argentina in the last Rugby World Cup (probably one of the worst conceived lines in sport betting history).
    Although it is true that those particular bets are opportunities, the number of plays are going to be very few.
    People who truly make a living from sport betting need to make many bets (in my case in average I have between 80-100 plays per week, depeding on the number of tournaments being played). Those bets are almost always made in markets (or matches) that have very little line movement.

    Good opportunities dont come from what you said (those are isolated events) they come from developing a model or a betting thesis that will allow you to determine winning probabilities that can consistently analyze every single match and allow to determine when a line has value and when it doesnt.
    Only then you will have a system that will allow you to analyze a massive amount of events and give you a consistant long term winning strategy that actually generates a fluid and positive cash flow.
    Then there's sport betting exchanges, which is a whole different thing.
    Out of interest, what was the opportunity in the Ireland vs Argentina game?

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    Michael Konik has some interesting pieces on the world of sports betting. Reading his work might shift your general perspective on what can and can't be done as a solo player.

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    Depends what you mean by “casual”. For the most part, it takes time and energy to figure out what you need to know to be a winner. I don’t have any sports betting books and I doubt anything in those books is going to turn a casual player into a winner.

    Most of the time it’s not all “glorious winning” like some people make it out to be. It’s a grind with a lot of work and you need to stay on top of the game to find good bets. Most matchups aren’t going to have a good bet on either side. But if there are 20 events, you may get a few good bets. Some days there are many, some there are few or none.


    The toughest way to win is by essentially creating your own numbers. You analyze a match up and say “A fair line is +/- 135, if I can find a line better than that, I’ll bet it, otherwise I won’t” and you do that for many matchups. This isn’t really something that IMO is possible without extensive knowledge.

    The other way is by comparing lines at different books. If every book has A +120 and B -140, but there’s one book where A is +135 or has B at -125, then those lines are off market and would be +EV, if you believe the majority of the books. Another, of course, is if you can find a line where one side is something like +120 and the other is -115. Easy money. Unfortunately, it’s not much, because you’d guarantee like $2-3 profit on a $200+ wager, and you’ll have to get a lot down in order to make it worthwhile.


    Every now and then you’ll find crazy bets that are huuuugely +EV, like Mayweather. In the summer olympics (or maybe trials or something like that?), there was a track and field event where two sisters were competing in the same race. One was a decent favorite at like -150. The other was a dog at like +450 IIRC. A Sportsbook messed up and switched their names, so we got a bet that should be -150 at +450. Granted, this wasn’t an event many people were betting on, so it had a pretty low limit.

    I heard one year when Westgate opened their lines for NFL futures (I think it was NFL?), they had a side where you could bet against a guy who didn’t even exist! That’s like being able to bet the Broncos will NOT win the World Series.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Quote Originally Posted by NB10 View Post
    Out of interest, what was the opportunity in the Ireland vs Argentina game?
    Argentina was playing very good rugby and reached QF with all its big players very well rested since none of them played against Namibia in the last game of the groups stage (64-19).
    Ireland on the other hand had to play its last match against a very tough France using all players (they needed that win to advance) and had two important players that were injured and most likely wouldnt be able to play (sexton and payne).
    In spite of all that, Ireland was deemed favourite, only because it was Ireland and their uniform was green.
    Argentina was very superior and eventually won.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    A Sportsbook messed up and switched their names, so we got a bet that should be -150 at +450.
    I dont know any sportsbook that would pay that bet.
    All books I know and play have terms and conditions that cancel bets when mistakes like that are made.

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