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  1. #1


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    Interesting article

    I thought this would be of interest for some on here:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...paign=ritholtz

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    Much thanx to NB10 for an absolutely amazing read.

    I had created a horse race betting system in the early 1970's
    (pre-computer) but I did not do the heavy-lifting. I was an impoverished grad student. A regression analysis was key. That was up to the Ph.D. statistician / actuary who was chairing my thesis committee.

    From 1976-78 I earned handsome profits but I had "burned out" trying to keep my career intact while struggling
    with a hand-held calculator, that was almost state-of-the-art way back then. There were hardly enough hours in the day to be a spouse, to be a forensic psychologist, and a resolute handicapper.

    My thesis chairman was primarily interested in female grad students, fine liquors, hallucinogens, etc. Not altogether different from Ken Uston.

    I found that my system worked best at harness races where there were very big
    betting pools, and that meant the Meadowlands Race Track in Secaucus, NJ and that commute consumed time and effort as well. I employed race-track p.m. clerks to get my bets in at the final seconds before the p.m. machines locked. 40 years ago the clerks were earning perhaps $2 an hour ~ $5 for the clerk was very generous. I was averaging $200 per bet for 5 - 6 bets per day. My mean winner was at odds of 9 to 2 (mean = 11.40 return per $2 bet) and I was winning >23% of my bets. Crunch the simple numbers. Enjoy. I was leading a manic existence that was rapidly burning me out.

    At the time I explored the idea of incorporating as the "Look Before You Leap Pari-Mutual Investing Group."

    It was never to be. It should have been, but the harsh independent variables of life painfully foiled that.

    As an aside, I was to complete my Ph. D. under Professor Igor Kusyszyn, soon to be the progenitor of Hi-Opt I and Hi-Opt II, although all of the meaningful work was done by Julian Braun. I had a rather young wife at the time, and the idea of moving to Canada was unacceptable to her. I caved.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 05-04-2018 at 07:15 AM. Reason: q was

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by NB10 View Post
    I thought this would be of interest for some on here:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...paign=ritholtz
    This, of course, is really not new information. Benter's story has been known and written about for quite a long time. Some of you know he was inducted into the Blackjack Hall of Fame two years ago. I met him at the Ball the year I was elected, and we chatted for a while, with Thorp and Wong.

    I find the end of the story amusing that, after studying thousands of variables, and their impact on probability of winning, a NEW one to consider would be changing to a different trainer!!! REALLY? It took HOW many years to consider that important?? Like athletes' perfomances don't change when they switch coaches????

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    This, of course, is really not new information. Benter's story has been known and written about for quite a long time. Some of you know he was inducted into the Blackjack Hall of Fame two years ago. I met him at the Ball the year I was elected, and we chatted for a while, with Thorp and Wong.

    I find the end of the story amusing that, after studying thousands of variables, and their impact on probability of winning, a NEW one to consider would be changing to a different trainer!!! REALLY? It took HOW many years to consider that important?? Like athletes' perfomances don't change when they switch coaches????

    Don
    Don, I didn't mean to imply the info in the article was new, just that it might be interesting for some people. Apologies if I gave the wrong impression!

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by NB10 View Post
    Don, I didn't mean to imply the info in the article was new, just that it might be interesting for some people. Apologies if I gave the wrong impression!
    Not your fault. The article itself claimed to be the first to tell the story. That just isn't the case.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Not your fault. The article itself claimed to be the first to tell the story. That just isn't the case.
    So maybe the part below isn't the case, either:

    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I find the end of the story amusing that, after studying thousands of variables, and their impact on probability of winning, a NEW one to consider would be changing to a different trainer!!! REALLY? It took HOW many years to consider that important??

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    So maybe the part below isn't the case, either:
    o maybe the part below isn't the case, either:


    Originally Posted by DSchles
    I find the end of the story amusing that, after studying thousands of variables, and their impact on probability of winning, a NEW one to consider would be changing to a different trainer!!! REALLY? It took HOW many years to consider that important??


    It's important except when it's not and vice versa.



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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    the link is a story on robo-betting on racing which might be useful to you. I suspect that these operations are not very,very successful; that if they have an edge it's very small. my reasons for saying this would be too long to write here.

    I read another long article on the Alan Woods and Benter syndicate and it indicated that initially when they were most successful the Asians were so happy with their whales that they funneled them proprietary info via computer - the estimated trifecta, superfecta, and pick 6 payouts for all the different possible combinations.

    That very valuable info is not available to anybody betting racing today. You can only make ballpark estimates from the win odds and those estimates are not very accurate - they're often way off.



    https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...race-wagering/
    Thanks for the link and the story.

    Benter got about 5% +EV from his bets.

    When Benter "retired" from Hongkong horse racing, he gave some papers about horse racing to his business partner CM. CM wanted to have a try on the computer horse model. He "found" me, I gave him some information, then he started building the model.
    Three years later, he told me that his annual winnings were over ten millions HKD.
    Then he extended the horse business to US, another two year later, he claimed he is the biggest bettor in the US market.
    And he said, the horse racing is easier to win than before, because ...
    Betner and Woods, no more action in the pool. Zeljko is not so active(or quit?).
    Hongkong jockey club gives 10% discount on the losing tickets.

    Now, from those out of country internet brokers, the house takes is only 1%, means if your system can make 2%EV better than random wagering, you get 1% advantage.

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    From the article:
    ?a NEW one to consider would be changing to a different trainer!!!?

    From Benter's former business partner CM, his NEW one is... to hire a experienced jockey, watch all the video from racings, spot out all the "cheating" or "unwilling to win" actions, and give a score. It would takes two years effort at least to get the data, before he can tell whether this idea is useful or not.

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