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Thread: 16v10 at TC=0: Hit or Stand Confusion. Here is Why…

  1. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Not 9 cents but $3 difference per hour assuming $10,000 BR, $10 to $200 spread, 6D, one Kelly.

    I ran the simulation. Scenario 1 is all Basic Strategy and no surrender (so always hit on 16 v 10). Scenario 2 is all Basic Strategy/no surrender except index play on 16 v 10: hit when RC is negative and stand when RC is zero or higher. SCORE for scenario 1 is $38.34 and SCORE for scenario 2 is $41.36.
    Try figuring it for how you wonging out at TC -2. That is the way most will play shoe games.

    Let me put it this way. If you learned a BS strategy for the way a counter plays rather than the way a puppy plays standing on 16vT would be your BS. The deviation for hitting 16vT wouldn't come close to making the I18 for deviations from your count and ramp's BS. And the deviation would be absolutely worthless for the a wong out at TC -2 strategy. People waste so much brainpower learning deviations based on a BS that isn't the BS for their count and bet spread. If you start with a BS for the way you play with your count and spread and then learn the most important deviations from that considering your wonging style far fewer indices would be needed to hit the same EV. People worry about getting the most with the fewest indices that start with a BS strategy that isn't the BS for a counter is making more indices required to get the same EV. That is just inefficient.

  2. #41


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Try figuring it for how you wonging out at TC -2. That is the way most will play shoe games.

    Let me put it this way. If you learned a BS strategy for the way a counter plays rather than the way a puppy plays standing on 16vT would be your BS. The deviation for hitting 16vT wouldn't come close to making the I18 for deviations from your count and ramp's BS. And the deviation would be absolutely worthless for the a wong out at TC -2 strategy. People waste so much brainpower learning deviations based on a BS that isn't the BS for their count and bet spread. If you start with a BS for the way you play with your count and spread and then learn the most important deviations from that considering your wonging style far fewer indices would be needed to hit the same EV. People worry about getting the most with the fewest indices that start with a BS strategy that isn't the BS for a counter is making more indices required to get the same EV. That is just inefficient.
    Ideally you want to surrender the hand 16 v 10, but when surrender is not available, this index play is the most critical of all Illustrious 18, because the threshold falls in the middle. Half of the plays will be wrong if you stick with one action, either always hit or always stand.

    Scenario 1: always hit. SCORE is $38.34.

    Scenario 2: hit when RC is negative, stand when RC is positive. SCORE is $41.36.

    Scenario 3: always stand. SCORE is $40.69.

    The right play is #2. Comparing #1 and #3, even each has 50% wrong, #3 has higher SCORE because players are on the right side when they bet big.

  3. #42
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    Now figure the SCOREs for numbers 1 thru 3 for the typical wong out at TC -2 that counters tend to do in shoe games.

  4. #43


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Now figure the SCOREs for numbers 1 thru 3 for the typical wong out at TC -2 that counters tend to do in shoe games.
    You mean c-SCORE. If you Wong out at TC -2, you cannot achieve 100 hands per hour as defined in SCORE.

  5. #44
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    I mean c-SCORE. If you use the same parameters in the comparison of the three index plays it doesn't matter. Use the typical shoe optimal spread of 12:1 and the $10K BR with full kelly. I am not talking about back counting. Even if I were rounds observed counts toward rounds. Besides play in a casino is rarely 100 rounds per hour. I view SCORE as per 100 rounds not per hour. One less errant assumption in your thought process. And it is rounds per hour not hands per hour.

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