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Thread: A tip re: estimating decks unplayed, etc.

  1. #1
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    A tip re: estimating decks unplayed, etc.

    Last night, I was chatting with a BJ student when the
    subject came up of "flooring" true count computations.

    To make a long story short ... I told her to pay special
    attention when the dealer pulls the final stub of cards
    from the shoe.

    Take a second to think about what deck estimation fraction
    was used for the last round. Now adjust for the cards played
    on the final round. DID you accurately assess the decks and
    fractions of decks remaining?
    IF you were "off" by more than
    1/4 deck, you need to go back to practicing deck estimation.

  2. #2


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    I agree with this assessment (1/4 deck accuracy) for a DD game. But for a 6 or 8-deck game, that's a pretty high standard.

    As for me, a hobby player, I make a habit of observing just what you say (the remaining slug), and I would be concerned if I was off by more than 1/2 deck in a multi-deck game.

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    BigDaddy,


    I agree that there are different standards
    for different people.

    That should be self-evident, but as I said,
    it was my student, and I train my students
    to be ultra-proficient in their bet-sizing.

    I had a Professor in graduate school who
    was also on the faculty at M.I.T. I took his
    2nd-year graduate course in Statistics and
    Probabilities.

    I got a gentlemanly B. I was humbled when he told
    me that I would not have passed his course at M.I.T.
    because the entirety of the course that I had completed
    would have been finished in the first two weeks at M.I.T.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 04-24-2018 at 04:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    BigDaddy,


    I agree that there are different standards for different people.

    That should be self-evident, but as I said, it was my student,

    and I train my students to be ultra-proficient in their bet-sizing.

    I had a Prof. in graduate school who was also on the faculty at M.I.T. I took his 2nd year graduate course
    in Statistics and probabilities.
    I got a gentlemanly B. I was humbled when he told
    me that I would not have passed his course at M.I.T.
    because the entirety of the course that I had completed
    would have been done in the first two weeks at M.I.T.
    No argument here....

    It's all about personal objectives and what you want out of the game relative to what you're willing to commit to it.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Suffice it to say that deck estimation is a lot more important at .5 decks remaining than it is at 5.5 decks remaining. I'm generally at less than 3 decks before I really start thinking more in terms of 1/4 deck increments seriously, although for example, it's sort of hardwired in to divide 4.3 by 3.25 anyway, in which I don't think of the exact, +1.3, but more like "greater than +1, but less than +1.5", because I can instantly assess this without even having to calculate the exact. In studying the comparisons of estimation of RC/TC using Hi-Lo, Hi-Opt2ASC, T Basic, T Expert, what stood out as significant were differences ranging from TC+2 to TC+5. This is the range where there can be differences impacting bet sizing. At less than TC+2, all counts behave much the same, and at around TC+5 or more, all counts also behave the same with a max bet out.

    This was an interesting thing to do, comparing multiple counting methods side by side, carefully documenting as I went to see the differences. You would see a deck composition given a spread of different counts, such as +2,+2.3, +2.3, +1.5, +3, etc., with the counts all within a range of one another. This range becomes more extreme with certain types of deck composition, and impacts betting in that +2 to +5 zone a lot more than it impacts anywhere else. If one method calls it TC+1 but another calls it TC+3, it's significant. If one method is calling it TC+7 and the other calling it TC+9, it doesn't matter as much since you both have max bets out anyway.

    Last edited by Tarzan; 04-26-2018 at 01:57 AM.

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    TARZAN's post is a truly excellent one.
    He was speaking in terms of a Level One
    Count, as his count is indeed a complex
    Level One method for beating the house.

    I have found that getting to your max
    betting level ~ where you can cap your
    bets at that level, and only reluctantly
    drop your bets ~ and "hit the bricks"
    after exposing the caliber of your action.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I had a Professor in graduate school who
    was also on the faculty at M.I.T. I took his
    2nd-year graduate course in Statistics and
    Probabilities.

    I got a gentlemanly B. I was humbled when he told
    me that I would not have passed his course at M.I.T.
    because the entirety of the course that I had completed
    would have been finished in the first two weeks at M.I.T.
    What, the great ZenMaster_Flash was not ready for the possibility of variable change?

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    What, the great ZenMaster_Flash was not ready for the possibility of variable change?
    You mean, like this

    https://youtu.be/8DMnAAvakh0

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    What, the great ZenMaster_Flash was not ready for the possibility of variable change?
    I do not understand.

    1. "Not Ready?"
    2. "possibility?"
    3. "variable change"

    Please enlighten me.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I do not understand.

    1. "Not Ready?"
    2. "possibility?"
    3. "variable change"

    Please enlighten me.
    ZMF, sorry, it was a joke related to the movie 21. I was suggesting that you are the senior version of Ben Campbell.

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