Why Do We Even Play the First 3 Decks of a 6 Deck?

[MercySakesAlive]

Using CVData and CVCX here's the c-SCORE results for a 6 deck 5.5/6.0 Penetration H17 DAS RSA game. REKO, wong out at -1.0%, first bet raise and 2x hands at +0.3%. 60 unit spread (yes I know that's a big spread)

deck scores.jpg

If we were back counting, why would we even bother sitting down for decks 1-3 when the c-SCORES are so terrible?

We learn to avoid games with low SCORES, so why don't we avoid the DECKS in a shoe with low SCORES?

[lessj]

Well, the SCORE is inversely proportionate to the Variance of the game, and such a huge spread at such a low advantage probably has something to do with it. I'll let the experts weigh in.

[Freightman]

Using CVData and CVCX here's the c-SCORE results for a 6 deck 5.5/6.0 Penetration H17 DAS RSA game. REKO, wong out at -1.0%, first bet raise and 2x hands at +0.3%. 60 unit spread (yes I know that's a big spread)

deck scores.jpg

If we were back counting, why would we even bother sitting down for decks 1-3 when the c-SCORES are so terrible?

We learn to avoid games with low SCORES, so why don't we avoid the DECKS in a shoe with low SCORES?

I love a heads up game. Oh wait, I can't backcount if no one is playing.

Have you played a hand?

[MercySakesAlive]

Thanks, lessj. But you can't really get much better SCORES than this at decks 1, 2, and 3.

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[stopgambling]

i don't know what is the point beside the obvious ?

[DSchles]

Using CVData and CVCX here's the c-SCORE results for a 6 deck 5.5/6.0 Penetration H17 DAS RSA game. REKO, wong out at -1.0%, first bet raise and 2x hands at +0.3%. 60 unit spread (yes I know that's a big spread)

deck scores.jpg


If we were back counting, why would we even bother sitting down for decks 1-3 when the c-SCORES are so terrible?

We learn to avoid games with low SCORES, so why don't we avoid the DECKS in a shoe with low SCORES?

To quote the legendary Peter Griffin, "Opportunity arises slowly in multi-deck."

Don

[Meistro123]

There is no point in avoiding positive expectation wagers. Nor for that matter should you stand like a vulture around the table waiting for the shoe to get hot.

[Stealth]

It is the reason for spotters!

[MercySakesAlive]

One of the things I realized from looking more closely at SCORE by depth is that I think I'm going to tailor my betting schedule to change as the penetration gets deeper. The bigger bets shouldn't even be pulled out till the 4th deck at the earliest.

Here's the thing that I don't get: Why do we determine our bet size based on IBA but not the variance?

Doesn't a 1.5% advantage at Deck 2 come along with much more variance than a 1.5% advantage at Deck 5.5?

Shouldn't we consider deck depth when sizing a bet?

[Gronbog]

Variance is considered for optimal betting in blackjack. The complete formula for the optimal Kelly bet is very complex. The approximation EV / Variance is good and is widely used.

[MercySakesAlive]

Thanks, Gronbog.

Do people use different betting ramps for different shoe depths?

All the literature I've read suggests to work out one betting ramp and use that regardless of shoe depth. But that seems like you would potentially wind up over betting early in the shoe and under betting later in the shoe.

I may be pointing out a problem that is specific to unbalanced stategies. I don't know. I didn't explore this idea with a balanced strategy.

[Freightman]

Thanks, Gronbog.

Do people use different betting ramps for different shoe depths?

.

Yes, different ramps for different depths. Ask yourself, always - what spread do I need to beat this shoe and what spread can u get away with.

[MercySakesAlive]

Thanks FM.

I'm surprised that there is a lot of talk about wonging in or wonging out, getting a waiting bet on the table... but no mention that decks 1 -3 are completely unprofitable and can't be beaten. At least from what I can see.

I tailored each depth's betting schedule to produce the highest c-SCORE without going over a 5% RoR and also keeping some uniformity to the betting structure so that it is easy to use. This betting schedule is built for a fictional casino with zero heat.

bets by depth for forum2.jpg