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Thread: when its time to leave

  1. #1
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    when its time to leave

    I've been mulling this over for a while and am ready to throw it out there for discussion:

    Here is the range of advice you get on when to leave the table:


    1. Keep sessions short, say 60-90 minutes, so they can't get a fix on you;
    2. Keep your sessions short and leave after showing your top bet so they can't get a fix on you;
    3. If your game is +EV play as long as you can - leaving early whether up or down fails to maximize EV;
    4. Leave once you've lost X% of your session BR - this allows the joints to record your losses and that helps even out your W/L record, making you look more normal (The corollary of this is don't spend hours grinding back up from a lost session as you need to let the joint win sometimes - you'll take them in the long term)
    5. Leave when you are approaching a choke point in terms of dollars won;
    6. Leave before they throw you out if you can see it coming;
    7. Don't leave until they throw you out!
    8. Never leave when you're up just because you're up (i.e. better to keep playing the +EV game even though it means you might lose back all the units you've piled up in the short term (as an aside, there is a famous quote in The Art of Cross Examination (F. Wellman - a great read) in which he says "When you hit oil, quit drilling!"... this is a bit counter-intuitive (pardon the pun))) when you consider some other advice. Or you could keep winning. In the short run, no one really knows!
    9. Nothing wrong with camping out so long as you learn what the man tolerates (this is a variation of "play a winning, but polite spread, if you want longevity, for example, at your local restaurant.)
    10. Many lists have ten items. I can't think of any more, but I'm confident this crew will increase the list. Oooooh!...Leave when you're tired because its not AP to play at less than optimal mental power! Feel free to keep going...


    Obviously, the list is a bit glib and many of those exits are driven by circumstances. My question is really about #8 which has been discussed before. Leaving aside playing at some theoretical shop where no one ever gets backed off or counter-measured, in the real world, in a shop you intend to return to, once you're approaching a win that is 3-4-5 x your buy-in, even if it happens fast, isn't it really ok to say "thanks for the money - see you next time!" and slip away? Given that its impossible to know whether you will continue to win or lose any session, can you really know that walking away at a pre-set point is capping wins overall? Isn't there some psychological benefit to walking away up (Yes, yes, yes...true APs are robots, but deep down, even robots have feelings)?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Green View Post
    My question is really about #8 which has been discussed before. Leaving aside playing at some theoretical shop where no one ever gets backed off or counter-measured, in the real world, in a shop you intend to return to, once you're approaching a win that is 3-4-5 x your buy-in, even if it happens fast, isn't it really ok to say "thanks for the money - see you next time!" and slip away?
    You have to analyse and approach every situation differently. You cannot play every place the same way. And, for any place that you play at regularly you should absolutely mix it up and try to keep them guessing, which includes a hit-and-run sometimes. Try different things like, don't sit down. If you start really kicking ass in a shoe right out of the gate say something to the floor and dealer like, "Damn, I really shouldn't be in here today. But, if I can hold onto some of this, I could definitely pay a couple of decent-size bills off later." Or, if you're at the end of a shoe that you've just crushed say something when cashing out like, "Two grand, not bad. I get beat for that much too often, but can't remember the last time I won like this here." Get creative. The key to this at all times is to act natural. Mimic things you've heard ploppy's say. If you can be very likable, it is a bonus towards longevity (at least sometimes).

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Green View Post
    Given that its impossible to know whether you will continue to win or lose any session, can you really know that walking away at a pre-set point is capping wins overall? Isn't there some psychological benefit to walking away up (Yes, yes, yes...true APs are robots, but deep down, even robots have feelings)?
    The only way you'd be capping wins is if you leave when you have an advantage. Once you've lost the advantage and you lose a hand or two, boogie if it's time to go. The ideal exit point, if you're looking for one, is when you've lost the advantage and the dealer flips a Blackjack on that round or the next. "Well, I know where this is headed. I'm not giving this back for once." There is absolutely some psychological benefits to leaving when up, especially if you're coming out of a really rough patch. Scooping up some small wins can help you get your confidence back. Again, just be sure you are not bailing when you have an advantage. That will screw you over time. You can try something like (I'm not sure what stakes you play) setting your exit points at something like: Don't start another shoe if you're ahead $1500, or behind $750.

    Going in and playing until you've shown your top bet and then leaving is a pattern that they will spot quickly. Try and think of how each store perceive you at all times. Mix up the way you play sometimes ("Man, I gotta get to work."). Doing this is an art. And, perfecting one's art takes continuous effort.

    Cheers,

    FW

  3. #3


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    Each person is different. I get upset if I lose more than $1500 in any single session. So, I go with a time limit (based on casino tolerance) and a max loss of $1500 per session. At one casino where I am tolerated, I have left after winning or losing $1500 in a half hour or played up to 2 hours. At others, it's 45-60 minutes or lose or win $1500 while playing $25 DD games.

  4. #4
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    Hi, have a similar question. I'm a KO player and sometimes wonder if there are just bad days to remain at certain tables in the casino. For instance if the dealer scores multiple naturals and / or hits to 21 multiple times in the same shoe, isn't that a sign to find a different table? I realize there's nothing scientific with this rule.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mets View Post
    Hi, have a similar question. I'm a KO player and sometimes wonder if there are just bad days to remain at certain tables in the casino. For instance if the dealer scores multiple naturals and / or hits to 21 multiple times in the same shoe, isn't that a sign to find a different table? I realize there's nothing scientific with this rule.
    No, that is complete garbage.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mets View Post
    Hi, have a similar question. I'm a KO player and sometimes wonder if there are just bad days to remain at certain tables in the casino. For instance if the dealer scores multiple naturals and / or hits to 21 multiple times in the same shoe, isn't that a sign to find a different table? I realize there's nothing scientific with this rule.
    Remember, it doesn't matter how lucky the dealer is getting (or how unlucky you are) at a table. The question is are you playing an advantage game or not? If you are playing a winning game and have a positive EV, then the dealer's luck is just standard variance. Take it as an opportunity to look like a bad gambler. You will have bad days and good days; do not rate your play based on the winnings or losses of a single session or day: the long term is what matters, so the only ways you should be rating your success at a table is the quality of your play (how many mistakes are you making?) and on table selection (based on rules and conditions, which does NOT include luck).

  7. #7


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    I'm a strong opponent of win limits, but loss limits are fine. The problem with the hit and run approach is that you end up putting in the majority of your volume when conditions are poor. If conditions are optimal I'm going to camp, end of story.

  8. #8
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    Thanks Jameson, Meistro, and Refinery. Jameson, your reply is an "inspirational keeper"

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Each person is different. I get upset if I lose more than $1500 in any single session. So, I go with a time limit (based on casino tolerance) and a max loss of $1500 per session. At one casino where I am tolerated, I have left after winning or losing $1500 in a half hour or played up to 2 hours. At others, it's 45-60 minutes or lose or win $1500 while playing $25 DD games.
    For the DD game $25 minimum, buy in 500, I would leave if I lost 300, stop loss so to speak, if I am up 400, I also would leave to keep me under covered, with player card.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by ellenc View Post
    For the DD game $25 minimum, buy in 500, I would leave if I lost 300, stop loss so to speak, if I am up 400, I also would leave to keep me under covered, with player card.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
    Out of curiosity, how many units are you spreading and avoiding heat?

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by ellenc View Post
    For the DD game $25 minimum, buy in 500, I would leave if I lost 300, stop loss so to speak, if I am up 400, I also would leave to keep me under covered, with player card.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
    300 and 400 are nothing. you're going to play a lot of 5 minute sessions and leave in the middle of great counts.

  12. #12
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    Am I the only KO player who experienced this?

    This has happened several times to me lately: Low cards come out and early in the shoe, I am playing
    with the advantage. Soon, I am at my max bet spread, but I get bad cards and lose. Instead of the count
    going back down, where I decrease my bet, the count keeps rising to positive 7 or positive ten or more. I keep betting max
    but just don't get good cards. In fifteen minutes, I lose $400 to $800, quite disheartening.

    By the way, my bet spread is typically $10 or $15 (table minimum) to $100.
    I only play here in the northeast with eight deck shoes.

  13. #13
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    The rounds that make the count increase are more likely to be losing rounds and a round with more of the cards that decrease the count , high cards, are more likely to be winning rounds. This is because advantage increases due to expecting high cards. When the high cards come out you get a big advantage in the long run on those rounds and they make the count go down. When low cards come out it is like playing an average round at a low count and the low cards that are removed during the round cause the count to increase.

    So basically you are talking about betting in anticipation of a high card round because of the high count and getting dealt a round that reflects the average deck composition of a low count which makes the count increase. Yeah, that happens with all counts all to regularly.

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