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Thread: CVCX Forced Shuffle vs Reenter Shoe Multiple Times

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    CVCX Forced Shuffle vs Reenter Shoe Multiple Times

    In CVCX, I compared two sims: a "forced shuffle sim" to a "reenter shoe multiple times sim". Everything else was the same.

    Forced Shuffle did about 2x as well as Reenter Shoe in the categories of SCORE and Win Rate.

    Why is that exactly? I would have thought they'd be about the same maybe?

    forced shuffle vs reenter shoe screenshot.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by MercySakesAlive View Post
    Why is that exactly? I would have thought they'd be about the same maybe?
    You left off the part of the sims that would tell you. You want to look at TC frequency for both styles of play. On reason is likely that the hands observed waiting to reenter the shoe are counted as rounds in the stats. While forced shuffle got you right back in the action. The heavy discussion Don and I got into about wonging stats basically came down to something similar. Don's stats were based on the assumption of a lag to get back into a fresh shoe. He considered this lag as a part of the hourly. I looked at things from a different angle. We were really in agreement as long as I accepted his studies views on the lag time when wonging. Personally I don't include time not playing in my hourly. I play when I find the conditions I like and scout when I don't. I don't count the time spent looking and finding nothing to play toward my hourly.

    Anyway, kind of going on a tangent there, what you are seeing is likely the same sort of thing except in rounds rather than time. Starting a fresh shoe adds no rounds but waiting to renter when the count is favorable does. Look at data for rounds played rather than rounds observed and see what that says.

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    Here's a screenshot of the "re-enter shoe multiple times" sim that I was talking about. Some of the numbers don't match up to the above screenshot because I just did a quick and dirty to see if you could look at it. I don't know where to find the "data for rounds played rather than rounds observed and see what that says." BTW, I wouldn't pay much attention to my betting schedule, again quick and dirty, not something I'd use. Thank you.

    6 Deck Reenter Shoe.jpg

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    If Norm's products don't tell you win rate for rounds played in addition to the standard win rate per round observed, things get a bit harder to make sense of quickly. You're TC frequencies are for rounds played. They seem to add up to 100% even though you don't play any negative TCs. I think Norm said win/rnd is for rounds observed. My memory isn't always reliable. How well I remember things depends on how interesting the info is. Norm's software doesn't support the approach I use in some games so I don't use it. That makes info on Norm's software less interesting to me. If you put up both sims people could see what info is there to help figure it out.

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    This screenshot is for a 6 deck Hi Lo Forced Shuffle. I'm sorry the bets are slightly different. It performed almost 2x as well in the categories of SCORE and win rate than the Reenter Shoe sim screenshot above. Thank you for your help.

    Hi Lo 6 Deck Forced Shuffle Screenshot.jpg

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    The ramps are totally different. Forced shuffle bets from 2x4 to 2x150 (a 37.5:1 spread). Forced reentry bets 2x5 to 2x150 (a 30:1 spread).

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    Ok ill get the right one up soon. Sorry.

    Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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    EV/TC/round played:
    Reenter shoe multiple times:.............{Forced Shuffle}
    TC 0: .4886*(-.0035)*10 = -$0.0171; {-$0.01701}
    TC 1: .2242*(.0023)*20 = $0.0103; {$0.06018}
    TC 2: .1256*(.0077)*70 = $0.0677; {$0.03073}
    TC 3: .0713*(.0134)*130 = $0.1242; {$0.04244}
    TC 4: .0408*(.0192)*190 = $0.1488; {$0.07050}
    TC 5: .0231*(.0248)*240 = $0.1375; {$0.10707}
    TC 6: .0128*(.0303)*300 = $0.1163; {$0.09362}
    TC 7: .0069*(.0363)*300 = $0.0751; {$0.07455}
    TC 8: .0036*(.0417)*300 = $0.0450; {$0.04674}
    TC 9: .0018*(.0470)*300 = $0.0254; {$0.02766}
    TC 10: .0008*(.0523)*300 = $0.0125; {$0.01521}
    TC 11: .0004*(.0565)*300 = $0.0068; {$0.00840}
    TC 12: .0002*(.0585)*300 = $0.0035; {$0.00345}
    TC 13: .00006*(.0694)*300 = $0.0012; {$0.00178}
    TC 14: .00002*(.0721)*300 = $0.0004; {$0.00060}
    TC 15: .00001*(.0632)*300 = $0.0002; {$0.00021}
    Total EV/round played: $0.7578; {$0.5661}

    Multiply the reenter multiple times sim result by the backcounting percentage of 48.1%:
    Total EV/round observeded: $0.3645 compared to the EV from the summary of $0.3638.

    I would say the sim summary are in rounds observed not rounds played.

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    ok cool thanks.

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    My guess is the discrepancy between the Forced Reshuffle sim summary and the rounds played is Norm's software may assess the 6 round penalty, that Don's research showed would occur if you changed tables, every time you force a shuffle.

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    You're saying that you think Norm's software adds a 6-round waiting period if you Force Shuffle?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MercySakesAlive View Post
    You're saying that you think Norm's software adds a 6-round waiting period if you Force Shuffle?
    That would be my guess. I double checked the math for the Forced shuffle, and even added an extra decimal place the second time to address rounding issues, and it didn't agree with Norm's sim summary (not that close as you can see). So there are some counted rounds that aren't played. I think they are rounds that were never dealt but even out the time lost to the shuffling process (changing tables). Don's study is the only study on lag that I am aware of so I assume that is what was used. The time lag is equated to a 6 round average per table hop/courtesy shuffle.

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    There must be something wrong with the way I am thinking about the problem. Why does a 6-round waiting period correspond to the better c-SCORE?? I would have thought a waiting period would explain the LOWER c-SCORE of the two sims. Ugh, sorry if I am being dense. Thanks for your patience. I would like to understand this.

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