9 Sequencing Baccarat?

[Three]

James, what is the origin of your chart? It doesn't match the one in the link in your quote.

[James989]

James, what is the origin of your chart? It doesn't match the one in the link in your quote.

See my two charts above, if bet on PLAYER, a player have a 23.489% disadvantage when 9 goes to Banker. I generated these two charts with combinatorial analysis.

Actually the chart in the link(https://www.888casino.com/blog/edge-...the-known-card) combined two charts to one chart, only extract the +ve edge !


If "9" goes to banker, no doubt people who bet on BANKER have a 20.641% advantage, but people who bet on PLAYER have a 23.489% disadvantage, NOT 20.641% disadvantage as Gronbog claimed in his post #33 !

In other word, when 9 goes to BANKER, people who bet on BANKER have a 20.641% advantage, but it DOES NOT mean that other people who bet on PLAYER will have 20.641% disadvantage ! The disadvantage is actually 23.489% ! Hope I explained well.

so your expectation = 0.5x21.528% - 0.5 x 23.489% = -0.9805% !

[Gronbog]

Now that I consider the issue of commission paid on a winning banker bet, I concede that one can not simply use the banker advantage as the player disadvantage. However, I can't seem to reconcile the 20.641% banker advantage with a 23.489% disadvantage for the player when the 9 goes to banker. I'll try again tomorrow, unless someone posts the solution before then.

[James989]

Now that I consider the issue of commission paid on a winning banker bet, I concede that one can not simply use the banker advantage as the player disadvantage. However, I can't seem to reconcile the 20.641% banker advantage with a 23.489% disadvantage for the player when the 9 goes to banker. I'll try again tomorrow, unless someone posts the solution before then.

I got 23.489% from combinatorial analysis, If you want to calculate it manually, I think you should consider Banker 1 pay 0.95 and TIE games.

[Gronbog]

Yes, I would need the distribution of Win/Lose/Tie for both banker and player, with the 9 known as the first card and also as the second card.

Working backward, using your numbers for the case where the 9 comes first, the required distribution can be calculated by solving the following two equations:

 pw -    bw    =  0.21528      (for a player advantage of 21.528%)
-pw + 0.95(bw) = -0.23249 (for a banker disadvantage of 0.23249

Solving, I get
pw = player win = 55.48%
bw = banker win = 34.42%
tie = 9.632%

Similarly for the case where 9 comes second, we would solve

 pw -   bw     = -0.23489 and
-pw + 0.95(bw) =  0.20641

Solving gives:
pw = player win = 33.471%
bw = banker win = 56.96%
tie = 9.569%

If these distributions match those of your CA, then I think we're in agreement.

[James989]

Yes, we are in agreement.

[Hackjack]

Let’s say that your method for locating 9’s wasn’t that accurate and you only knew that (at least) one 9 was coming somewhere in the next 4 cards. So the odds that a 9 could be in the first 2 cards of either hand are equal. Including commission, does one side have an advantage over the other?

[James989]

Let’s say that your method for locating 9’s wasn’t that accurate and you only knew that (at least) one 9 was coming somewhere in the next 4 cards. So the odds that a 9 could be in the first 2 cards of either hand are equal. Including commission, does one side have an advantage over the other?

Under such situation :-

If you bet on PLAYER, you have a 0.5x21.528% - 0.5 x 23.489% = -0.9805%(disadvantage)

If you bet on BANKER, you have a 0.5x20.641% - 0.5 x 23.249% = -1.304%(disadvantage)

BOTH SIDE have a disadvantage, but bet on PLAYER is slightly better !

IF I WERE YOU, I WILL NOT BET ANYTHING ! LOL !

[Bushie]

Under such situation :-

If you bet on PLAYER, you have a 0.5x21.528% - 0.5 x 23.489% = -0.9805%(disadvantage)

If you bet on BANKER, you have a 0.5x20.641% - 0.5 x 23.249% = -1.304%(disadvantage)

BOTH SIDE have a disadvantage, but bet on PLAYER is slightly better !

IF I WERE YOU, I WILL NOT BET ANYTHING ! LOL !

So I think it's clear now that there is some benefit to sequencing 9s in baccarat, but it's not enough to overcome the HE. I guess if you're looking for a low HE game to pass time then it might save you a few bucks over the long haul.

[Sonny]

So I think it's clear now that there is some benefit to sequencing 9s in baccarat, but it's not enough to overcome the HE.

Don't give up so easily! The examples given above were simplified and not necessarily applicable to real-world situations. If you find a game that you think might be vulnerable, by all means look into it! You might find an edge where everyone else isn't even looking.

-Sonny-

[James989]

Don't give up so easily! The examples given above were simplified and not necessarily applicable to real-world situations. If you find a game that you think might be vulnerable, by all means look into it! You might find an edge where everyone else isn't even looking.

-Sonny-

That given example is applicable to real-world situations, otherwise please tell us what other real world situations can you find ? Are you saying that you know the exact location of a target card ? Ribbon spread ?

[Gronbog]

If these distributions match those of your CA, then I think we're in agreement.

Yes, we are in agreement.

Just to further confirm, I have reproduced your frequency distributions and (dis)advantages using a simulation.

[peterlee]

Just to further confirm, I have reproduced your frequency distributions and (dis)advantages using a simulation.

combinatorial analysis:

9 the 1st card

0.3441809 Banker win
0.5594623 Player win
0.0963568 Tie win

132334879180800 Banker win
215108869548032 Player win
37048426309888 Tie win
384492175038720 All win



9 the 2nd card

0.5695641 Banker win
0.3346722 Player win
0.0957637 Tie win

218992955203584 Banker win
128678834077696 Player win
36820385757440 Tie win
384492175038720 All win