9 Sequencing Baccarat?

[Bushie]

You must be unfamiliar with the game's procedures.
Explain to me, and others too, how, lacking X-Ray vision,
this could conceivably assist a player.

Flash, if you know that one of the first two cards is a 9 (your premise above), then there is a 50% chance that you will be playing the next hand at the advantage associated with the card going to Player (Ap) and a 50% chance that you will be playing at the disadvantage associated with the card going to Banker (Db - a negative number). Your overall advantage would then be 0.5 x Ap + 0.5 x Db. I don't know what the values of Ap and Db are off the top of my head, but the overall result could end up being positive.

It's worth reading the article linked in the OP, as well as the article ShiptheCookies linked.

It should be remembered that the above simulations assume first knowledge. Therefore, if you knew the first card was a 9, 8, or 7 you would wager on the Player Side. Conversely, if the first card were a 10,Ace,2,3, or 4 you would wager on the Bank Side with knowledge that the Player would be receiving a weak card. A quick summary of the results shows the following; Most powerful cards are the 9 then 8 then 7 Least powerful cards are the 10, Ace, 2, 3, 4 Essentially neutral cards 5 & 6 Be aware, that if in some way a customer were to know the value of any one card in either Player or Banker hands they could wager with a positive expectation…Sometimes wagering with the knowledge that a powerful card would dealt to the Banker (or Player), other times wagering against the Banker (or Player) simply knowing that a weak card would be dealt to that hand.

If the AP knows one of the next six cards in the shoe, then he can gain an easy edge over the house by wagering on the side, Player or Banker, that the card favors. The results in this post assume the standard dealing procedure is used that deals cards 1 and 3 to the player side and cards 2 and 4 to the banker side.The edges obtainable from a known card are as follows:

• Knowledge of card 1 or 3 (Player first card): 6.765%
• Knowledge of card 2 or 4 (Banker first card): 6.406%
• Knowledge of card 5: 8.973%
• Knowledge of card 6: 9.098%

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"there is a 50% chance that you will be playing the next hand at the advantage associated with the card going to Player (Ap) and a 50% chance that you will be playing at the disadvantage associated with the card going to Banker."

So, whoever gets the 9 is the favorite.
The probability of the 9 being the first
or the second card is equal.

I fail to comprehend the value to this.

Knowing that there is a 9 about to be
dealtto either hand is meaningless!

[Bushie]

So, whoever gets the 9 is the favorite.
The probability of the 9 being the first
or the second card is equal.

I fail to comprehend the value to this.

Knowing that there is a 9 about to be
dealtto either hand is meaningless!

Not quite. If you know with a degree of certainty that the first card dealt in the next round (that always goes to player) will be a 9 then that is where the advantage lies and is what you bet on. You determine this by looking at the last card dealt of the previous round and correlating it with what I've described previously.

In less-than-perfect handshuffles where (hypothetically say) the identifier for all 9s didn't change from the previous shoe, you'd have a chance of 1/8 chance in an 8D shoe upon encountering the first identifier off the top and nabbing a 9 in the player bet.

[Meistro123]

Not quite. If you know with a degree of certainty that the first card dealt in the next round (that always goes to player) will be a 9 then that is where the advantage lies and is what you bet on.

But that is moving the goal posts. Knowing what the next card will be is completely different from knowing what one of the next two cards is going to be.

[peterlee]

It should not be hard to understand...

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[peterlee]

The Effects of "Marked Cards" in a Baccarat Game: A Computer Study Plastic Comb – 1986 by George D. Joseph (Author)...maybe the first book that published the figures of EVs with knowing the first card on baccarat.
Some years later wizard of odds posted somethings similar, but wrong in the results. The results were corrected later.

It is easily find the games like that in London...cut 7 cards, you can see the eighth card from bottom.

Macau MGM, when business started, offered 'let you double your bet after see the first card" once in twenty rounds(computer games). That gave me about +5% EV.... Thanks for George Joseph

[Bushie]

But that is moving the goal posts. Knowing what the next card will be is completely different from knowing what one of the next two cards is going to be.

There's an inherent advantage by having a 9 as a first card however, as explained by the linked articles. Sure, you won't always win even if you do nail a first card 9 for player, but as with BJ, it's all about grinding out the EV. That's my point. The bigger the cluster is the more variance it will have. It's why I was thinking of just tracking the identifier before a 9 instead of the identifiers on both sides, might be less complicated.

[peterlee]

If you found some simple shuffle baccarat game, say one pass riffle, and you tracked 7s 8s 9s in previous shoe.
The next shoe, you know 7s 8s 9s are in the zone playing, and you see the key cards 7s and 8s have come out..so the next card or the second, or the third, or ...is 9s.
So what can you do?
Before you make any action, collect data and do statistics at home first....for single shuffle, what % will come to the first, % the second, % third....
Then you can estimate your EV.

[Three]

Knowing that there is a 9 about to be
dealtto either hand is meaningless!

I was playing Baccarat and the first card of the next round was exposed as an 8. I made a big bet and won with a natural based on that information. I could have lost but I knew that round was the biggest advantage I would have in that session. Of course I was playing mini-baccarat as the casino throws away the cards after each shoe in baccarat because they get mutilated by the players when they turn the cards. In mini-baccarat the players don't handle the cards so they shuffle them to be used again.

[Three]

The next shoe, you know 7s 8s 9s are in the zone playing, and you see the key cards 7s and 8s have come out..so the next card or the second, or the third, or ...is 9s.

In sequencing you try to steer cards by altering the number of spots you play or altering your play to change how many cards you use. You can't do that in Baccarat. If you were off by one card you would be betting into a big disadvantage. It sounds like a pretty sketchy thing to bet into.

[Bushie]

I was playing Baccarat and the first card of the next round was exposed as an 8. I made a big bet and won with a natural based on that information. I could have lost but I knew that round was the biggest advantage I would have in that session. Of course I was playing mini-baccarat as the casino throws away the cards after each shoe in baccarat because they get mutilated by the players when they turn the cards. In mini-baccarat the players don't handle the cards so they shuffle them to be used again.

I probably should have made it clear that I was referring to mini-baccarat only. It is only hand shuffled when the cut card is reached.

[Bushie]

If you found some simple shuffle baccarat game, say one pass riffle, and you tracked 7s 8s 9s in previous shoe.
The next shoe, you know 7s 8s 9s are in the zone playing, and you see the key cards 7s and 8s have come out..so the next card or the second, or the third, or ...is 9s.
So what can you do?
Before you make any action, collect data and do statistics at home first....for single shuffle, what % will come to the first, % the second, % third....
Then you can estimate your EV.

See but that is an issue; the larger the cluster is the more variance it will have depending on how thoroughly the decks are shuffled. Otherwise you'd have to record dozens of identifiers which would just become so ridiculously unwieldy and inaccurate that it just becomes entirely redundant. Hence why I'm think only tracking cards that precede 9s might be the way to go about it.

[peterlee]

See but that is an issue; the larger the cluster is the more variance it will have depending on how thoroughly the decks are shuffled. Otherwise you'd have to record dozens of identifiers which would just become so ridiculously unwieldy and inaccurate that it just becomes entirely redundant. Hence why I'm think only tracking cards that precede 9s might be the way to go about it.

Sorry for my wordings.
The above 7s 8s 9s I mean sequence spade of 7,then spade of 8, then spade of 9..That are one set of tracked sequence,... so spade7,spade8 are the key cards.