9 Sequencing Baccarat?

[Bushie]

Is this advantageous in any meaningful degree? After reading about Edward Thorpe's NAT9 sidebet, and this article:

http://georgejosephtraining.com/Bacc...Back%20Cut.pdf

It got me thinking of how sequencing 9s in hand-shuffled shoe baccarat might be advantageous?

For example, drawing a chart that comprises of 4 columns for each suite (S,C,D,H) of 9s within the shoe. Then for rows, rows = 4*number of decks used, to correlate with the total amount of 9s within the shoe.

After drawing the chart up, you play through one entire shoe and just flat bet the minimum, recording the 2 cards on either side of each 9 and writing them on the correlating side of the relevant 9 seen.

Now the basic idea is exploiting the fact that hand-shuffled shoes aren't entirely random and that there will be clusters that haven't changed their composition entirely. As player always goes first, you can then deduct what may eventuate according to these cluster compositions and what you evidenced in previous rounds, and raise your bet and place it in the box that is likely to get either the highest total or a natural 9.

I apologise if I haven't explained my theory very well, as I'm more mathematically minded in my cognition and struggle to put things like this into words. Or just debunk my theory and show me why. I don't mind.

How would I go about testing this theory?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

This simply makes no sense. No surprise.

Anything presented by the hack, George Joseph, can be ignored.

ANY "system" that mentions "clumping" or "non-random shuffles"

is hokum, to use an old expression, meaning nonsense.

The shuffle in baccarat is very thorough or it uses an A S M.

[refinery]

This simply makes no sense. No surprise.

Anything presented by the hack, George Joseph, can be ignored.

ANY "system" that mentions "clumping" or "non-random shuffles"

is hokum, to use an old expression, meaning nonsense.

The shuffle in baccarat is very thorough or it uses an A S M.

I only read it quickly but in my opinion the George Joseph PDF describes a well known Bac AP play. You don't seem to have put in any effort to add to the conversation or help Bushie.

Bushie - sorry I can't help you but I can at least see a path here. I'm not sure if you would be able to be exact enough to get an advantage.

[Bushie]

This simpy makes no sense. No surprise.

Anything presented by the hack, George Joseph, can be ignored.

ANY "system" that mentions "clumping" or "non-random shuffles"

is hokum, to use an old expression, meaning nonsense.

The shuffle in baccarat is very thorough or it uses an A S M.

It's applying "ace sequencing" to the most valuable card in baccarat and identifying clusters of known cards.

And no, hand-shuffling isn't as random as you'd think depending on how thorough the technique is. Far from it in fact. Obviously this wouldn't work with an ASM, but thanks anyway captain obvious.

I assume you know this George Joseph? How? Did he prove you wrong over something?

[Bushie]

I only read it quickly but in my opinion the George Joseph PDF describes a well known Bac AP play. You don't seem to have put in any effort to add to the conversation or help Bushie.

Bushie - sorry I can't help you but I can at least see a path here. I'm not sure if you would be able to be exact enough to get an advantage.

It's something I've come to expect on this forum sadly.

Yeah and it's just a theory regardless. It's not like I'm preaching that I've found a way to beat baccarat or anything. I'll try and explain it better:

So say there's a chart with 4 columns. Each column has a header for each suite, spades, clubs, diamonds and hearts. Then for rows, depending on how many decks are used, 4*n where n = number of decks used to correlate with the number of 9s in the shoe i.e 4*6 = 24 9 rows.

So as you witness the first shoe being played out, you take note and write down the two cards and their suite before a 9 and the two cards and their suite after the 9 and record it into the corresponding column and row of the chart. These are your identifiers. The theory is that you could track these clusters in less-than-mathematically-random hand shuffles in following rounds, and specifically track occurrences where a natural 9 is probable and bet accordingly in either banker, player or most advantageously, tie for it's 8:1 payout. Face cards that are clustered around a 9 would be especially valuable for naturals. You keep on recording these sequences around the 9s for the next shoe.

Now obviously this is entirely redundant with ASMs, CSMs and very thorough hand shuffles. But for less than perfect hand shuffling this might have some merit. I think..

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I apologize for my abrasive manner and tone.

You see a plug containing any number of 9's
and you have "located" it with fine accuracy.
You know that a nine (9) or several nines is
upcoming. It will do you no good. In baccarat
you cannot see the first card before placing
your bet. Even if you are 100% sure that one
of the first two cards coming up is a nine (9),
and that is information without value.

[Banker]

. Even if you are 100% sure that one
of the first two cards coming up is a nine (9),
and that is information without value.

What do you mean? If you know one of the first 2 cards is a 9, you have a huge edge

[Bushie]

What do you mean? If you know one of the first 2 cards is a 9, you have a huge edge

Which is what the article explains and is what got me thinking about it.

Its not card counting as such, as that of course doesn't tell you the order that the cards will be dealt but rather the approximate composition of the decks remaining. And the advantage that offers in baccarat is so minute that it's neglible (read redundant) anyway. But if you can identify the order of a cluster and can determine which side a 9 will fall there might be an advantage to be had, especially when paired with a face card for a natural.

[/i]IF[/i] that article is correct, that kind of knowledge gives an average advantage of around 4-5% over the house. But I'd want to find a way to test that myself before declaring it as canon.

Anyway it's just a theory. I might just do a test run of it one day to see how it goes. Nothing major, just low flat bets.

[Bushie]

I apologize for my abrasive manner and tone.

You see a plug containing any number of 9's
and you have "located" it with fine accuracy.
You know that a nine (9) or several nines is
upcoming. It will do you no good. In baccarat
you cannot see the first card before placing
your bet. Even if you are 100% sure that one
of the first two cards coming up is a nine (9),
and that is information without value.

No worries. You've provided me with a wealth of valuable information that it can be overlooked.

Moving on,

If you can determine with enough accuracy that the first or second card dealt will be a 9 and that the third card is a face card you'd have a sizeable advantage in grabbing a natural. It's similiar to Edward Thorpe's NAT9 baccarat count but replacing counting with sequencing 9s, because afaik his count only worked for the old 8:1 natural sidebet payouts of yesteryear. If there's less decks used, say four, then the less amount of bins used would mean that there's a greater chance of determining the correct cluster and thus its composition and potentially order?

I see what you mean though. But if you knew for certain what the composition of the next 5 cards were (not their specific order) rather than the composition of the next half or even quarter deck was, surely that would have some advantage?

I'll do a few tests at home anyway.

[ShipTheCookies]

https://www.888casino.com/blog/edge-...the-known-card

[Bushie]

https://www.888casino.com/blog/edge-...the-known-card

Thanks. That's good to know that I might be onto something.

But what would change if you could determine with some degree of accuracy that the first card dealt in the upcoming round would be a 9 (and thus bet Player)? That's what I'm trying to get at by identifying clusters around 9s, specifically from the last card dealt in the previous round.

i.e you play a shoe and flat bet, taking record of the card and its suite before a 9 and the card and its suite after said 9. So after the shoe has finished (say 8D and assuming no cut card is used for theoretical purposes) you would have 32 "9" entries with 64 identifiers on either side of said entries (32/32).

Now in the next fresh shoe, you try and identify the last card dealt in each round as a (potential) identifier that tells you that a 9 is likely to be the first card dealt in the next round. You bet accordingly (I have no idea what kinda ramp would have to be used) in the "player" box, as a 9 card is the most valuable and advantageous card in baccarat.

Does this make sense to anyone? Or am I struggling to put this into words?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"If you know one of the first 2 cards is a 9, you have a huge edge"

You must be unfamiliar with the game's procedures.
Explain to me, and others too, how, lacking X-Ray vision,
this could conceivably assist a player.

[Gronbog]

Flash, if you know that one of the first two cards is a 9 (your premise above), then there is a 50% chance that you will be playing the next hand at the advantage associated with the card going to Player (Ap) and a 50% chance that you will be playing at the disadvantage associated with the card going to Banker (Db - a negative number). Your overall advantage would then be 0.5 x Ap + 0.5 x Db. I don't know what the values of Ap and Db are off the top of my head, but the overall result could end up being positive.