See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 27 to 39 of 39

Thread: Newb question

  1. #27
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    So the point in standing isn't necessarily so much about winning the hand in high TC as it the potential to start the next round with a high card.
    I haven't ever been able to explain to moses, (in understandable terms), why his pet belief that by standing (on any hand) somehow increases the chances that he will receive a Face or an Ace for his first card, is superstitious gibberish.

  2. #28


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Moses, I am confused.

    Since the deck is rich in "high cards" relative to "low cards", the probability that the next card is "high" is around 66.6%.

    If so, the indicated percent does not suggest that we are guaranteed a "high" card. Neither does it guarantee that we will receive a "low" card. What is certain is that we are to get a card possessing the difference in expectation of "high" and "low" cards. This expectation will determine if we are to draw or stand (or double/split/surrender, if you are offered.)

    We are not guaranteed with 100% certainty that the next card will be "high", but rather the probability is skewed towards drawing a "high" card. We can still draw a "low" card. In that instance, we evaluate our hand and determine through calculations what our expectation for drawing is over standing.

    The next card we draw is in a statistical "superposition": that is, the next card is an amalgamation of all possible cards and their respected probabilities. Only until we draw it can we have complete certainty.

  3. #29


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I seriously doubt you've reviewed thousands of hands either. Now, in a column count, you have an fairly good idea to what still remains. Not so much in a conventional count. IF you have 67% of the card tags that still remain are 9,10,A and 33% of the card tags are 2-7s, then it is a 2 to 1 chance the next card will be high. So do you want it to break your current hand or start your next hand?

    Stop using words like superstitious gibberish. It's childish.
    A few things. If you actually have twice as many high cards left as not, then you're probably correct, even by index-play standards, to be standing on hands like 15 and 16 vs. 8, 9, and 10. But, the proper way to calculate whether "saving" the hit card is actually mathematically correct is to first determine, if standing is wrong, just how much you're sacrificing by making the wrong play. Of course, this isn't easy to know on the fly. Next, once you know what you're giving up, you calculate the probability of getting each of the favorable cards to start the next hand (just the 10s and aces; the nine isn't worth anything as a starting card), multiply by the edge you'd have if you were to get the particular rank, and determine the weighted average of positive expectation. Then compare to what you gave up by playing the previous hand incorrectly. If the edge to be had is greater, you stand; if not, you don't.

    But it's far from clear that you could do this in your head, in a couple of seconds. And, playing by the seat of your pants isn't a very attractive way to do this.

    Don

  4. #30


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    A few things. If you actually have twice as many high cards left as not, then you're probably correct, even by index-play standards, to be standing on hands like 15 and 16 vs. 8, 9, and 10. But, the proper way to calculate whether "saving" the hit card is actually mathematically correct is to first determine, if standing is wrong, just how much you're sacrificing by making the wrong play. Of course, this isn't easy to know on the fly. Next, once you know what you're giving up, you calculate the probability of getting each of the favorable cards to start the next hand (just the 10s and aces; the nine isn't worth anything as a starting card), multiply by the edge you'd have if you were to get the particular rank, and determine the weighted average of positive expectation. Then compare to what you gave up by playing the previous hand incorrectly. If the edge to be had is greater, you stand; if not, you don't.

    But it's far from clear that you could do this in your head, in a couple of seconds. And, playing by the seat of your pants isn't a very attractive way to do this.

    Don
    Thank God, you explained it, and not 3.

  5. #31


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Dogman. Sorry I just saw your post. Got delayed watching that amazing Wolfpack comeback. Nothing in gambling is guaranteed. But 2 to 1 odds for even is rare. If I'm at the last hand of the deck I have little to nothing to lose by hitting. But if there is another hand to play there is a 2 to 1 chance of starting is with a card tag value of 9,10,A. Don says it isn't worth anything. But he stated in another thread that starting with a Ace is worth a value. This sent me into research mode.
    Normally, I'd be delighted to answer this relatively simple question. However, I note the huge addition of unhelpful comments to my tally. Clearly, my opinions are not wanted or desired. So, if I will err, I will do so on the side of caution, and decline to answer.

    Though, Not as an answer, rather as an opinion,

    Starting any hand with first card ace, us a huge advantage.

  6. #32


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Dogman. Sorry I just saw your post. Got delayed watching that amazing Wolfpack comeback. Nothing in gambling is guaranteed. But 2 to 1 odds for even is rare. If I'm at the last hand of the deck I have little to nothing to lose by hitting. But if there is another hand to play there is a 2 to 1 chance of starting is with a card tag value of 9,10,A. Don says it isn't worth anything. But he stated in another thread that starting with a Ace is worth a value. This sent me into research mode.
    I find it quite odd you are using, well...odds.

    Why use sporting odds in 21? Would it not be better to think of 21 decisions as a function of points rather than odds? Like 16[6 T] vs 9: The points for standing is 154, while points for hitting is 148? I would rather pay 148 to make 100 than 154 for 100. Would you not agree?

  7. #33
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    It matters not if the Ace is your first or your second card.

  8. #34


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Evidently, my way is very confusing. But if 67% large cards tags remain and 33% small cards then the ration is 2 to 1 of the next card being high. No? Okay, suppose 14 cards remain that are either 9,10, or A and 7 cards remain that are either 2,3,4,5,6,7 then your telling me it is not a 2 to 1 chance the next card will be high?
    Your chance of the next card being "high: 9/T/A" is the ratio of : 14/(14+7) = 2/3.

  9. #35
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    It matters not if the Ace is your first or your second card.
    In that case. I'd just be tickled pink if the casino will let me start every hand with an Ace. Anytime you want to be the dealer giving me this option just let me know.
    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    Your chance of the next card being "high: 9/T/A" is the ratio of : 14/(14+7) = 2/3.
    And "low 2thru7" is the ration of : 7/(14+7) = 1/3. 2 to 1.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I haven't ever been able to explain to moses, (in understandable terms), why his pet belief that by standing (on any hand) somehow increases the chances that he will receive a Face or an Ace for his first card, is superstitious gibberish.
    I seriously doubt you've reviewed thousands of hands either. Now, in a column count, you have an fairly good idea to what still remains. Not so much in a conventional count. IF you have 67% of the card tags that still remain are 9,10,A and 33% of the card tags are 2-7s, then it is a 2 to 1 chance the next card will be high. So do you want it to break your current hand or start your next hand?

    Stop using words like superstitous gibberish. It's childish.
    Last edited by moses; 03-20-2018 at 03:16 PM.

  10. #36
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    IF you have 67% of the card tags that still remain are 9,10,A and 33% of the card tags are 2-7s, then it is a 2 to 1 chance the next card will be high.
    No. In a 16vT situation the ace is a low card not a high card. I think you might do well to listen to Don.

  11. #37
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Read Don S post #29. We are not even talking about 16v10.
    I did read Don's post.
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    A few things. If you actually have twice as many high cards left as not, then you're probably correct, even by index-play standards, to be standing on hands like 15 and 16 vs. 8, 9, and 10. But, the proper way to calculate whether "saving" the hit card is actually mathematically correct is to first determine, if standing is wrong, just how much you're sacrificing by making the wrong play. Of course, this isn't easy to know on the fly. Next, once you know what you're giving up, you calculate the probability of getting each of the favorable cards to start the next hand (just the 10s and aces; the nine isn't worth anything as a starting card), multiply by the edge you'd have if you were to get the particular rank, and determine the weighted average of positive expectation. Then compare to what you gave up by playing the previous hand incorrectly. If the edge to be had is greater, you stand; if not, you don't.

    But it's far from clear that you could do this in your head, in a couple of seconds. And, playing by the seat of your pants isn't a very attractive way to do this.

    Don
    The discussion was about 16vT and Don broadened it to include a handful of other matchups. For all the matchups the ace acts as a low card, but just for the player total of 16 it makes a pat 17 hand. The player totals of 15 it will give the player a stiff 16.

  12. #38
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I see Don S listed 15,16 vs 8,9,10. My question to him was for 14,15,16vs 7,8,9. See the original question is Freighters post 20.
    See that is the problem. I don't see Freighter's posts.

  13. #39


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    See that is the problem. I don't see Freighter's posts.
    You mean, you didn't see the line "Local purveyor of redundant minutae"

    I rather liked that one.

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123

Similar Threads

  1. Dumb newb question, be gentle.
    By CaptainSpaulding in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 25
    Last Post: 01-21-2013, 04:39 AM
  2. KidDangerous: Ramblings from a newb
    By KidDangerous in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 12-21-2004, 06:29 AM
  3. William Carter: newb w/?
    By William Carter in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 04-23-2004, 08:40 PM
  4. NewB: Red 7 vs KO
    By NewB in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 10-01-2003, 11:15 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.