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Thread: Made one mistake, your lose the advantage, is that true?

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, he meant what he wrote. He was trying to think of perhaps the dumbest mistake you could possibly make!

    Don
    Care for a Side-bet on "that" supposition?
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Care for a Side-bet on "that" supposition?
    I read it just like Don.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Care for a Side-bet on "that" supposition?
    Sure. Whatever you'd like. It makes perfectly good sense just the way he wrote it. Doubling what you call a soft 20, but what should be called A,9, isn't anywhere near a bad mistake. Like splitting tens, it's a very high positive-e.v. play. It's just that standing is even higher.

    But, if you were trying to show just how bad a mistake could be, doubling your hard 20 is about as bad as it gets.

    So, how much would you like to bet?!

    Don

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sure. Whatever you'd like. It makes perfectly good sense just the way he wrote it. Doubling what you call a soft 20, but what should be called A,9, isn't anywhere near a bad mistake. Like splitting tens, it's a very high positive-e.v. play. It's just that standing is even higher.

    But, if you were trying to show just how bad a mistake could be, doubling your hard 20 is about as bad as it gets.

    So, how much would you like to bet?!

    Don
    Ah i see..Your point is pretty clear in the two differences Bubbles was trying to make..At first glance, it seemed liked your typical 'poster error" but now i get why Bubbles made the the extreme example that S/He did..Looks like i would of lost that bet
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  5. #18


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    If the running count is off by 2 at the beginning of the shoe each time, then play through the shoe, would the advantage evaporate entirely or still have little to gain?

  6. #19


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    There are errors and "errors". Purposeful statistical errors used as camo, such as insurance all 20vA, even money with a low/neg count, etc... They will lower your EV but not by that much.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by DatabaseGuy View Post
    There are errors and "errors". Purposeful statistical errors used as camo, such as insurance all 20vA, even money with a low/neg count, etc... They will lower your EV but not by that much.
    Insuring a 20 or taking even money on a BJ when the count is neutral or negative are pretty big errors as far as basic strategy goes. Hitting 12 vs 4 is more in line with an error which sacrifices very little EV.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by angle_sh00ter View Post
    Insuring a 20 or taking even money on a BJ when the count is neutral or negative are pretty big errors as far as basic strategy goes.
    but we ( counters )are betting minimums , so the cost is not as high as you think.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    According to Professional BJ, a game with 83% penetration, s17, no DAS, no RSA, no surrender, $10-$100 bet spread with the Hi-Lo count, basic strategy only(no deviation index), provides a win rate of $12 per hour.

    I always see people say card counting has a very thin edge, if you make one mistake, you lost your advantage over the house. I wonder if that's true, or just an encouraging talk to make APs practice harder?
    Is making mistakes that horrible, or just moderately hurt the profit?
    $12 is not very much at all.

    With just a non counting spread of 1-4 based on deck probability value not expected...im averageing a double up every deck.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by worshipful21master View Post
    $12 is not very much at all.

    With just a non counting spread of 1-4 based on deck probability value not expected...im averageing a double up every deck.
    "deck probability value not expected"

    Ah how did I not think of that!?

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    but we ( counters )are betting minimums , so the cost is not as high as you think.
    There are still much less costly cover plays to make at minimum bets than insurance.

    Do u know what the house edge is for insuring two 10s? In a single deck game heads up it's above 15% or in other words close to 50x the EV differential for some basic strategy hit/stand decisions.

    Routinely taking insurance incorrectly doesn't represent good bang for buck. Your EV will go much further with other cover plays.

  12. #25


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    not in the least you ever find your self down in the south I ll destroy every preconceived notion about the game of blackjack since its creation.

  13. #26


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    So as a counter How much edge are you aiming for when planning on attacking a game? Do you guys have a mimimum percentage like 1.0 or 1.6?
    Or just simply as high as possible just to squeeze the crap out of the actual game?
    I hope my question does make sense to Yous.

    Cheers

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