Card counting with basic strategy, no indices.

[San Jose Bella]

I'm trying to see if card counting with no playing strategy indices is profitable.
I attached a strategy with Hi-Lo counting system for betting only. For playing decision, use Basic Strategy only, no indices, never take insurance.

Basic strategy I attached:
6 Deck, DAS, No surrender
S17 Basic Strategy.png

I set the sample size to one billion rounds:
Untitled.jpg

I found if I use basic strategy for playing decisions, I only have an advantage at TC+5 or higher. This is worse than I expected, I guess it's because when the TC is high, basic strategy decisions tend to be wrong more often.

I checked the same sim for 4 players and 1 player. For 4 players, I have an advantage between TC 4-8, but have a disadvantage at TC 9, why?
4 players:
4.jpg
1 player:
1 player.jpg

What's the minimum "Rounds" I should use to reflect a reliable result? I feel one billion might be too small.

[BoSox]

I found if I use basic strategy for playing decisions, I only have an advantage at TC+5 or higher. This is worse than I expected, I guess it's because when the TC is high, basic strategy decisions tend to be wrong more often.

Using Stanford Wong's benchmark example in Professional Blackjack he states on the last paragraph on page 45 and text continues on page 50:

"Playing hands according to basic strategy and using the high-low for bet variation wins at the rate of $12 per hour. So bet variation alone improves on flat- betting by $27 per hour, or 87% of the $31 gain from both bet variation and strategy variation."

Yes Three, I know, I know different numbers will appear for different counts but for the bottom line the spread is what is most important.

[DSchles]

The sim wasn't done properly. What you're showing makes no sense at all.

Don

[Dog Hand]

San Jose Bella,

I ran the CVCX sim myself: here are the results:

CVCX Example.jpg

Here's a hint: define the strategy by starting with B.S. and then adding the HiLo tags.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[San Jose Bella]

Hope this helps!

Your result seems more reasonable, thanks! I just can't make it right, lol.

[Three]

Yes Three, I know, I know different numbers will appear for different counts but for the bottom line the spread is what is most important.

I agree, but that generalization really depends on the spread used. The less you spread the more important index play becomes. We all try to use a big spread in shoe games. When that is the case index play is less important but I wouldn't get rid of any index plays just to be lazy. In a sweaty casino, for heat concerns, I would forgot index plays that generate heat there. I have talked about the casino I play at that runs a skills check on anyone taking insurance. If your correlation is close or you tend to win money in general using insurance they 86 you. I forgot the most important index play, insurance, because the game is the game is by far the best around. It probably isn't the best after giving up insurance play but you do what you have to do.

[Gronbog]

Your result seems more reasonable, thanks! I just can't make it right, lol.

Are you using demo version? If so, then the results will be (deliberately) incorrect. Also, when I switched form the demo version to the full version, the results were still incorrect. Norm helped me to purge the software and start from scratch, which fixed the problem.

[BoSox]

I agree, but that generalization really depends on the spread used.

Let's stay with the above example as a six-deck game. Without further defining different methods that can be used, you already know there are many ways to achieve a bigger spread without actually showing the obvious method.

The less you spread the more important index play becomes.

I agree with you, but a player will not make all the possible mistakes available to them if they are not playing all the hands. If a player eliminates a large percentage of index plays that he/she will be facing against, they will in fact cut down on errors made.

We all try to use a big spread in shoe games.

I will go so far as to say that we all try to accomplish the same results in different ways.

In a sweaty casino, for heat concerns, I would forgot index plays that generate heat there. I have talked about the casino I play at that runs a skills check on anyone taking insurance.

Every seasoned player is well aware to look out for possible casino heat concerns. Although there should be another big concern for a VERY FEW select players "this does not apply to low level play" who like to play higher stakes games locally to consider and that is ploppy heat from heavy play regulars. I know everyone is laughing and saying things like there is someone else at the table, I did not realize that. Personally I always make the plays that I want to make but I am well AWARE of whom I am playing with and will avoid, and never underestimate the trouble that a black chip player who is a regular can cause. Places I play there are many of them and thankfully they often like to play together. Three you like to train ploppies, me I like to avoid the local heavy hitters and I make it a point to recognize every one of them. Yes, the better count systems playing efficiencies will get you some extra cash, BUT EQUALLY important is keeping a low profile, knowing who you are playing with, and most important being welcomed back.

[Freightman]

Bosox said
"
should be another big concern for a VERY FEW select players "this does not apply to low level play" who like to play higher stakes games locally to consider and that is ploppy heat from heavy play regulars. I know everyone is laughing and saying things like there is someone else at the table, I did not realize that. Personally I always make the plays that I want to make but I am well AWARE of whom I am playing with and will avoid, and never underestimate the trouble that a black chip player who is a regular can cause. Places I play there are many of them and thankfully they often like to play together. Three you like to train ploppies, me I like to avoid the local heavy hitters and I make it a point to recognize every one of them. Yes, the better count systems playing efficiencies will get you some extra cash, BUT EQUALLY important is keeping a low profile, knowing who you are playing with, and most important being welcome back."

Bosox makes some sense excellent points. At our regular hangouts, the house knows we're counting - and they really don't want us pissing off the Chinese mamas, and the whales. Treat both, if at all possible, with respect.

When it comes to whales, I have many times had a min $25 bet out with my ploppy beside me, in a spot with 2 x 200 or 300 out. I always knew what the proper play was, though I have no issues deferring to ploppy basic. This is not a Zee tactic worrying about that the wrath of table mates, but a purposeful manoever - I'll say to the ploppy - I can stay, or I can hit, I really don't give a shit what I do - do you have a preference. This diffuses any possible repercussions, may even result in a win for the ploppy when he would have lost, there's kharma at the table and the critters are happy.

[Freightman]

I should add
Deferring to ploppy basic, as described above, is strictly a min bet issue, that I gave no problems playing with whales, and further - developing the Khama previously described has opened up some great scavenging opportunities.

[SpikeBJ]

Deferring to a ploppy is excellent cover. Pit likes happy tables.

[Freightman]

Deferring to a ploppy is excellent cover. Pit likes happy tables.

Don't defer, just for the sake if deferring, as in a Zee manoever. There needs to be a reason. As for the pit liking a happy table -yes,yes,yes.

[Three]

I agree with you, but a player will not make all the possible mistakes available to them if they are not playing all the hands. If a player eliminates a large percentage of index plays that he/she will be facing against, they will in fact cut down on errors made.

Sticking with the threads topic an altered basic strategy (counter's BS) would be better than basic strategy for this style of play.

To the OP, if you are too lazy or lack the memory to remember indices, use BS and counters basic strategy depending on the count.

Three you like to train ploppies, me I like to avoid the local heavy hitters and I make it a point to recognize every one of them.

Most places I play I am in an area of the casino that has more small players. The floor is worried that they will piss the big player off (me). More than a few times the Floor has 86ed low limit or even comparable play players that were giving me crap. But in casinos where I am one of the big players we seem to have the same pet peeves about the lower limit players so it usually isn't an issue. When it is I know to tread lightly. I have played with players that play over the posted table limit. They complain about everyone. I just use their complaining to leave when I want to anyway. Everyone that cares about my play appreciates the "fact" that I am leaving as a gesture of good will.

Yes, the better count systems playing efficiencies will get you some extra cash, BUT EQUALLY important is keeping a low profile, knowing who you are playing with, and most important being welcomed back.

I have to disagree with you here. Keeping a low profile isn't EQUALLY important. Keeping a low profile is more important.