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Thread: When should you cut your bet size after a series of losses?

  1. #1


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    Question When should you cut your bet size after a series of losses?

    I assume the optimal way to do it is to keep the ROR at a constant rate, like 1%.
    Realistically, how often should you adjust your predetermined bet size? After every win or loss?
    If I max bet $200 per hand and lost $2000 during a shoe, which decreased my bankroll by 10%. For the next shoe, should I decrease my max bet then?

  2. #2


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    Optimally, you adjust after each bet but that is not practical.
    I like setting an RoR (usually .5) that I am comfortable with and the reevaluate after a days play that experiences a big move either way (usually 15-20% of bank).
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    I assume the optimal way to do it is to keep the ROR at a constant rate, like 1%.
    Optimal is to use a 13.5% roR set before each bet. That is adjusting your bets after each win or loss to maintain a constant 13.5% RoR. That is not practical. Most will try to keep their RoR in a range that is comfortable for them. Often that is a fraction of the latter kelly style betting.
    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    Realistically, how often should you adjust your predetermined bet size? After every win or loss?
    This depends on your RoR. The higher it is the more you need to adjust to maintain that RoR.
    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    If I max bet $200 per hand and lost $2000 during a shoe, which decreased my bankroll by 10%. For the next shoe, should I decrease my max bet then?
    Your BR is not huge. You need to tend to it more than many. You never say what your RoR was and what it will be if you don't resize. That is important. It sounds significant enough to consider resizing. What you want is a series of BR amounts and the to resize up or down to maintain a comfortable RoR. Once your BR is large enough these concerns will not be a factor as often. Losses will not have much effect on RoR and increasing your bets may not be an option due to casino tolerances or table limits. But, the example you give shows a sufficient BR that needs more maintenance when it comes to resizing.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Optimally, you adjust after each bet but that is not practical.
    I like setting an RoR (usually .5) that I am comfortable with and the reevaluate after a days play that experiences a big move either way (usually 15-20% of bank).
    I used to not adjust until I didn't have enough money to double down my max bet 16 times, especially when I was losing. At a time, I was down to $4500 in total BR, I still bet $200 max bet cause I thought if I have money to double down or splitting, I would have the edge and everything's gonna be fine. I couldn't reduce my bet so profit from card counting is still worth the time, and if I lost more, I could earn money from jobs to increase my bankroll again. I believe this mindset is only correct when my bankroll is too small to worry about lose it all.
    Adjust daily sounds like a good idea, more practical than adjust per shoe. When you adjust, you simply keep you RoR at 0.5% again regardless of winning or losing right?

    15%-20% bank swing with 0.5% RoR sounds huge, how often does this happen?


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  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Optimal is to use a 13.5% roR set before each bet. That is adjusting your bets after each win or loss to maintain a constant 13.5% RoR. That is not practical. Most will try to keep their RoR in a range that is comfortable for them. Often that is a fraction of the latter kelly style betting.
    Isn't 13.5% RoR too high? where's the detailed theory explaining why 13.5% is optimal? Thanks.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    Isn't 13.5% RoR too high? where's the detailed theory explaining why 13.5% is optimal? Thanks.
    It isn't. Three didn't express it properly. 13.5% ROR is for an original Kelly bettor who NEVER again adjusts his bet size. He either wins all the money in the world or goes broke trying. By definition, if you keep resizing your bet after every move of your bankroll, which is the very definition of pure Kelly betting, you will NEVER go broke. But, for practical purposes, no one plays that way.

    There isn't, however, as Three incorrectly explained, any such notion of having a series of 13.5% RORs.

    Don

    Don

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    Don and I have gone through the semantics on this before. I won't get back into it. My view of RoR is you calculate a picture of your RoR at a point. The statistical groupings the snapshot took are valid for all who took the same snap shot as the group goes forward. The groups results will reflect the snapshot taken. But we are talking about an individual when we banter about "my RoR". When looking at your particular RoR you aren't in a group and your RoR and changes every time your BR changes, the game you are playing changes, the dealer changes and cuts different, or most importantly your BR and/or your ramp changes. That said I will let Don take over because he gets anal about trying to keep the term pure rather than practical to the user. Constant resizing and 13.5% RoR maximizes BR growth. I do it the way I told you because I am too lazy to learn new ramps each time I play. Speed of play is worth more to me than taking extra time for perfect bet size management to maximize BR growth. At your BR size you should keep RoR in a range and figure out at what BR amounts resizing is necessary to keep you there so you do it at the appropriate points.

    Most have had poorly timed ramp adjustments. I upped my top bet 20% and immediately went on a bad losing streak and lost 1/3rd of my BR in about 10 days before I cried uncle and drawdown to my previous bet sizes. Of course I immediately started winning and it took 15 times the time it took to drop the money to win it back at the lower stakes. I didn't up my ramp until I made it back twice. Winning the amount lost the second time didn't take near as long. It sort of comes down to luck when you change your ramp as to whether you made the right decision. That said you are better safe than sorry. A lot better.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Most have had poorly timed ramp adjustments. I upped my top bet 20% and immediately went on a bad losing streak and lost 1/3rd of my BR in about 10 days before I cried uncle and drawdown to my previous bet sizes. Of course I immediately started winning and it took 15 times the time it took to drop the money to win it back at the lower stakes. I didn't up my ramp until I made it back twice. Winning the amount lost the second time didn't take near as long. It sort of comes down to luck when you change your ramp as to whether you made the right decision. That said you are better safe than sorry. A lot better.
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    13.5% ROR is for an original Kelly bettor who NEVER again adjusts his bet size. He either wins all the money in the world or goes broke trying. By definition, if you keep resizing your bet after every move of your bankroll, which is the very definition of pure Kelly betting, you will NEVER go broke. But, for practical purposes, no one plays that way.
    Thanks a lot. I looked up some articles on Kelly factor, things got more clear for me.

  9. #9


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    So Three, mostly you are a fix bettor? (rarely changing your ramp) ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ferenc11 View Post
    So Three, mostly you are a fix bettor? (rarely changing your ramp) ?
    I have a huge BR compared to my ramp now. So drawdown isn't an issue. And I am playing against casino tolerances and sometimes table limits at smaller casinos so I can't increase my top bet. So BR fluctuations don't cause changes in my ramp. But I grew my BR from basically nothing through play so I know what everyone is going through that have BRs that relate to their ramps in a way that cause tending to this issue.

    Like anyone that grew a decent BR from an insufficient one I can say there was a lot of luck involved in not busting out.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Like anyone that grew a decent BR from an insufficient one I can say there was a lot of luck involved in not busting out.
    Thank god I didn't know what RoR was at the time.

  12. #12


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    Low RoR is vert important. As t3 brought up. With an "oversized" bankroll you never have to resize, and as you continue to win your RoR keeps getting lower and lower. Also you can begin to embrace variance as a means of "cover." What I mean by that is you can start shoes with multiple unit bets, decrease the number of steps in your ramp etc.. The obvious extreme is to bet low in low counts and bet "max" in any positive count regardless of how small the edge. Maximizing EV but with more variance. With good low edge games you can disguise your ramp quite easily without giving up much if anything in terms of EV. Obviously this is meant for stores you frequent often, not the hit and runner.

  13. #13


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    "Constant resizing and 13.5% RoR maximizes BR growth."

    You can keep saying that it's semantics, but the fact is, you don't understand the concept. The statement above is patently false and inaccurate. If you constantly resize, you have ZERO ROR, not 13.5%. Your ROR from right now until eternity is only 13.5 % if you NEVER resize from right now going forward.

    Don

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