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Thread: Question for you CVCX and Statistical Gurus: %W/L converted to Probability

  1. #14
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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I just spent several days tinkering with making my betting bins in order to understand how to group the micro-bins to get the stats I wanted. I learned how 5 or 6 important stats simultaneously impact bet sizing. W/L% went from 2.01% to 2.21% (increase of 9.95%) while EV/100 rounds went from $108.91 to $110.45 (increase of 1.41%). SCORE went from 89.29 to 89.77 (an increase of 0.54%). The BR required for a 1% RoR increased by 0.867%. I think that maxes out trading a little SCORE and a little EV for increased W/L% or little increases in EV and SCORE for increased W/L%. This is the max W/L% without paying too big a cost for further increases. For the stat experts out there, how will I feel the changes? Do you think this maximizes the certainty of BR growth? Stealth I am interested in your view on this.

    The max SCORE attainable is 93 and change but the EV price for that 4% increase in SCORE is huge. The EV dropsFrom $110/100 rounds to $80/100 rounds. Practical SCOREs of 88 to 90 give EV from $105/100 rounds to $120/100 rounds.

  2. #15


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    Three: as I understand it, I think it's correct to say that splitting (and doubling) may increase the W/L% since the W/L% compares the $ won / $ of the initial bet ONLY. EXAMPLE: if play one hand @ $1bet, if you decide to hit... if you win, the resulting W/L% will be: $1 won / $1 initial bet = 100% W/L%. If you lose on this hit decision, then -$1 won (lost) / $1 inital bet = -100% W/L%. HOWEVER, if same hand but you decide to split instead; and win both hands: $2 won / $1 initial bet = 200% W/L%. But if split and then win one and lose one, then $0 net won / $1 initial bet = 0% W/L%. Lastly, if split and lose both, then -$2 won (lost) / $1 initial bet = -200% W/L%. ***NOTE*** I am assuming that the "initial bet" does not involve any additional bets included in a double or split. -Nascent

  3. #16
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    Thanks NN. I know how to increase W/L. My system is a bit unique in that I can fine tune everything since I have hundreds of data collecting bins rather tan a dozen or so. This allows me to make micro-adjustments that just can't be done with the normal TC approach to gathering data. So more general answers about the principles involved with W/L% are more useful because I am not constrained to only make adjustments in macro like almost all other system. I do appreciate the thought. The way to increase W/L% seems to be to bet the bottom of your ramp less aggressively. It costs in monetary EV but ups W/L% because W/L% is based on monetary EV divided by average bet. If you decrease your average bet by enough without losing too much in monetary EV the ratio (W/L%) will go up. If you give up too much EV the ratio (W/L%) will go down. Reducing the top of your ramp will have the opposite effect.

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