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Thread: Question for you CVCX and Statistical Gurus: %W/L converted to Probability

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    Question for you CVCX and Statistical Gurus: %W/L converted to Probability

    I’m working on my “camo bet” strategy, and want to determine the following: At TC=0, what is the probability that I will win the first 3 hands (all hands have TC=0). With my parameters set in CVCX, and zeroing out all custom bets except 1 unit for TC=0, the CVCX bottom line shows %W/L is -0.323%. IF I’m correct, this represents a win probability of 49.85% (and thus a loss probability of 50.15%) for the first hand dealt (again, with TC=0). Below is the method for this calc: -0.323% W/L (obtained from CVCX bottom line) is the $ profit per $ unit bet. At $1 unit bet, CVCX says it will result in - $0.00323 per hand profit (actually a loss, since negative). Put another way, the outcome of each wager is: I lose $0.00323, which means my walk-away from this one time, one-unit bet is: $1.0000 - $0.00323 = $0.997 (rounded off) per my unit bet, OR… $0.997 per $2.00 kitty (the kitty includes $1 my unit, and $1 the house’s matching value they make available to cover my bet). Therefore, the probability of me winning ONE HAND is: 0.997 / 2 = 0.4985. And the probability of me winning the first 3 hands in a row are: 0.4985 ^ 3 = 0.1239, or 12.39%. Can any of you gurus please dispute or confirm the accuracy of the above result / method? Is there perhaps a better method? Thank you in advance. -Nascent

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Couple problems. First, if you lose a hand, the count probably changes. Secondly, you can't calculate probability of a win or loss from W/L% as there are splits, doubles, insurance, and BJs.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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    As norm indicated that concept does not work.

    I found the following table for the probability of consecutive wins and losses in blackjack. Suggest you google it and confirm.

    Consecutive Win Lose
    2 16.00% 36.00%
    3 6.40% 21.60%
    4 2.56% 12.96
    5 1.02% 7.78%
    6 0.41% 4.67%
    7 0.16% 2.80%
    8 0.07% 1.68%
    9 0.03% 1.01%
    10 0.01%
    0.60%

    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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    The above table implies that the probability of winning a hand is 40% and that losing is 60%, which is terribly wrong. Depending on rules, a good guideline for the percentages of a single-hand outcome are Win, 43.8%, Lose, 47.3%, and Tie, 8.9%. If you exclude ties and insist on a resolved hand, it becomes Win, 48.1%, Lose, 51.9%.

    So, the probability of winning three resolved hands in a row is about (.481)^3 = 11.13%, or, roughly, 1 chance in 9.

    Don

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    Norm and Don: I think I understand what you're saying now, the %W/L in CVCX is the total resulting wins or losses for one single unit bet, which will include the resulting wins from doubles etc but only compare is it to one single unit bet, not two in a double. That explains why the probability that i calculated is higher than the realistic probability you provided.

    Thank you both, and thanks Stealth for your contribution.

    -Nascent

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    I have started looking at W/L% as an important statistic, but I really am a little uncertain as to what it means or how it affect things. I assume win lose means the total amount you win on hands you win divided by the total amount you lose on the hands that you lose. Is this correct?

    Now I can see that win/loss is important stat concerning win rate and is not proportional to win rate in dollars per hundred rounds. When I ask this you have to understand that what I do allows you to micromanage betting by changing a half dozen, give or take, betting bins into hundreds of betting bins to be regrouped back into a half dozen, give or take, betting bins. I can increase W/L% with a small cost to some other stats, or decrease W/L% while slightly increasing other stats.
    Usually the stats affected in opposition to the move in W/L% is SCORE or EV but usually not both. How do you balance the trade offs? IsW/L% more important that other stats? What is the most important stat to maximize?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    W/L% in CVCX is IBA. Amount won divided by initial bet.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I have started looking at W/L% as an important statistic, but I really am a little uncertain as to what it means or how it affect things.
    ?????????
    Wow, do I correctly understand what you've said?

    From my perspective, about the only thing of value in this thread, is instructing non counting ploppies on money management. I'll let others figure out what I mean by that.

    [ADMIN EDIT: Be nice]
    Last edited by Norm; 03-15-2018 at 01:40 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    W/L% in CVCX is IBA. Amount won divided by initial bet.
    Thanks Norm. So W/L% would go up from these sources:
    1) More bonus payouts (payouts at higher than 1:1 for a win).
    2) Winning more compared to amount bet on hands you don't double or get a bonus payout. (That is making stronger playing decisions. That means using a count with stronger playing correlation to more plays. The gain in EV for a playing deviation is defined by the slope of how fast EV accumulates after the index is exceeded. Two counts making the same decision don't gain the same EV from that playing decision. While a weakly correlated count might gain very little while a strongly correlated count would gain a lot of EV when they make the same decision.)
    3) Surrendering.
    4) Doubling and/or splitting.
    Last edited by Three; 03-15-2018 at 05:28 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post

    [ADMIN EDIT: Be nice]
    What's good for the goose must be good for the gander, otherwise, there is no equity.

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