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Thread: An unpleasant road trip!

  1. #1
    Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    An unpleasant road trip!

    I recently did a 6 hour trip in ONE direction to a store offering truly excellent rules. On DAY ONE I played a shoe game and on DAY TWO a double deck for a total of ~12 hours of play. Both were vast improvements to my standard poor choice of game (6D, H17, HE~0.6%). The catch was that they were S17 which I never played before. Upon realizing I had not prepared for this (BIG MISTAKE), I quickly looked over a generic strategy chart and learned the few differences and tackled the games with a 1-20 spread for the shoe game (HE~0.4%, pen 95%) and a 1-8 spread for the double deck game (HE~0.15%, pen 55-60%). I used hi low with ~50 index plays from Stanford Wong's book for these games.

    Well, to be blunt, I got demolished. I lost a little over $2000. This represents ~15% of my current bankroll. I know I didn't do my homework fully but I have played hundreds verging on a thousand hours of the crappy 6D game and never had this bad of a streak. I'm truly surprised I did so bad considering the quality of the new games. How much of this loss can be attributed to the following?:

    1) With the house edge smaller, I should have been spreading earlier (true count of +1 would represent an advantage in the shoe game and +0.5 in the double deck game). I waited to +2 to start spreading.
    2) I didn't learn the rules of S17 by heart beforehand.
    3) I used an inferior count system (hi low) to tackle the double deck game where PE is much more important than BC. I understand hi-opt 2 w/ ace side count is the ideal choice but I'm having difficulty finding indexes for this system (I understand how to keep the running count and adjust for aces, that's easy). Further, since the house edge was so low I thought the game could EASILY be beaten even with hi low.
    4) Although the 95% pen was AMAZING for the shoe game, I was unsure if 55-60% pen was bad for the DD (I played mostly heads up and with one other player, occasionally a third would pop in for a short while). Again, I didn't think it mattered so much because of the stellar HE (0.15%).
    5) At my home store I am only a 10 minute ride from home. I therefore tend to play until I'm satisfied with my result (either leave early if I'm up a decent amount or stay longer to chase losses). With the 6 hour trip I was forced to play a set amount of time regardless of the result (I possibly would have stopped after losing a grand but I was forced to continue play due to the distance I traveled and trying to get enough EV in to justify the trip).
    6) I have literally no idea what my exact ROR is or what my optimal bets should be.
    7) This store was SUPER sweaty and I didn't feel comfortable wonging out and played through every count. At my home store I wong out to my hearts content with zero heat.

    In summary, ~ how much of my poor performance could be attributed to the above listed points and ~ how much was just normal bad variance? Where can I get a detailed explanation of applying hi-opt 2 with ace side count (full indexes), as I find myself more likely to try double deck in the future? Should I resize my bets now that I lost 15% of my bankroll? Thank you very much for any help. I'm only a beginner but very eager to learn!

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    I recently did a 6 hour trip in ONE direction to a store offering truly excellent rules. On DAY ONE I played a shoe game and on DAY TWO a double deck for a total of ~12 hours of play. Both were vast improvements to my standard poor choice of game (6D, H17, HE~0.6%). The catch was that they were S17 which I never played before. Upon realizing I had not prepared for this (BIG MISTAKE), I quickly looked over a generic strategy chart and learned the few differences and tackled the games with a 1-20 spread for the shoe game (HE~0.4%, pen 95%) and a 1-8 spread for the double deck game (HE~0.15%, pen 55-60%). I used hi low with ~50 index plays from Stanford Wong's book for these games.

    Well, to be blunt, I got demolished. I lost a little over $2000. This represents ~15% of my current bankroll. I know I didn't do my homework fully but I have played hundreds verging on a thousand hours of the crappy 6D game and never had this bad of a streak. I'm truly surprised I did so bad considering the quality of the new games. How much of this loss can be attributed to the following?:

    1) With the house edge smaller, I should have been spreading earlier (true count of +1 would represent an advantage in the shoe game and +0.5 in the double deck game). I waited to +2 to start spreading.

    You did say 95% pen with .4 he. You can be somewhat more conservative.

    2) I didn't learn the rules of S17 by heart beforehand.
    Not that much if a biggie, though, what do I know. I don't have s17. However, your he was no longer .4.

    3) I used an inferior count system (hi low) to tackle the double deck game where PE is much more important than BC. I understand hi-opt 2 w/ ace side count is the ideal choice but I'm having difficulty finding indexes for this system (I understand how to keep the running count and adjust for aces, that's easy). Further, since the house edge was so low I thought the game could EASILY be beaten even with hi low.

    True enough fir dd, though your asc gives it quite a boost. Not so much a deal on shoe.

    4) Although the 95% pen was AMAZING for the shoe game, I was unsure if 55-60% pen was bad for the DD (I played mostly heads up and with one other player, occasionally a third would pop in for a short while). Again, I didn't think it mattered so much because of the stellar HE (0.15%).

    I would say that the number of tablemates that are acceptable are a factor if deck pen. I would further say, that with tablemates - fast action and no cover since waiting going to cream your advantage.

    5) At my home store I am only a 10 minute ride from home. I therefore tend to play until I'm satisfied with my result (either leave early if I'm up a decent amount or stay longer to chase losses). With the 6 hour trip I was forced to play a set amount of time regardless of the result (I possibly would have stopped after losing a grand but I was forced to continue play due to the distance I traveled and trying to get enough EV in to justify the trip).

    Mistake, just take the loss, both at home and in the road. Some give on the find trip depending on average hours per month played.

    6) I have literally no idea what my exact ROR is or what my optimal bets should be.

    Big oops

    7) This store was SUPER sweaty and I didn't feel comfortable wonging out and played through every count. At my home store I wong out to my hearts content with zero heat.

    That 1-20 spread might have had something to do with it, as was that elevator negated dd session.

    In summary, ~ how much of my poor performance could be attributed to the above listed points and ~ how much was just normal bad variance? Where can I get a detailed explanation of applying hi-opt 2 with ace side count (full indexes), as I find myself more likely to try double deck in the future? Should I resize my bets now that I lost 15% of my bankroll? Thank you very much for any help. I'm only a beginner but very eager to learn!
    Your worst losses will come when conditions are best. See my comments below yours.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Your worst losses will come when conditions are best. See my comments below yours.

    Absolutely agree. I once played at a candy store cutting off 10 cards with my partner. He lost 5100 and I won 5800 in the same day (Our largest individual loss or win in an individual session). So essentially because you bet bigger more often, the flux you experiences would have a larger absolute value. Please correct me if I am wrong here.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by BakaFortuna View Post
    Absolutely agree. I once played at a candy store cutting off 10 cards with my partner. He lost 5100 and I won 5800 in the same day (Our largest individual loss or win in an individual session). So essentially because you bet bigger more often, the flux you experiences would have a larger absolute value. Please correct me if I am wrong here.
    Essentially, quite right.

  5. #5


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    I would suggest that you did many things right and some things wrong but that your results were more a function of variance. Deep pen tends to provide more high positive counts many more action, meaning more variance.

    12 hours is about 1200 rounds, not even close to N0 so your results are somewhat statistically meaningless.

    Differences for S17 are infrequent enough to not likely have been a major contributing factor.

    Had you been winning in this sweaty store you likely would not have made it to the 12 hours. Ramping your bets with the count is the BIGGEST flag. There are ways to improve this, do your homework.

    Not knowing your RoR and having clear actions to take when you have big moves in either direction is a STRATEGIC failure.

    The mere fact that you asked these question tells me that you should spend some more energy learning ALL the components of AP play. So little of these issues have anything to do with which count you used on DD that I would tell you to do the foundation work before you pursue a new counting system to glean a few more points of EV. When you have mastered the other components then contact ZMF for help on HiOptII.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  6. #6
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    dalmatian,
    .............. I suggest learning dynamic betting and
    the few valuable "cheap"
    cover plays that you need.

    I hope that you are tossing out small but frequent tokes.


  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    dalmatian,
    .............. I suggest learning dynamic betting and
    the few valuable "cheap"
    cover plays that you need.

    I hope that you are tossing out small but frequent tokes.

    That's to early for him. He doesn't yet gave a handle on ror or Ramping. Baby steps.

  8. #8
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    Freightman,


    Yeah, I guess that you are right.


  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    Freightman,


    Yeah, I guess that you are right.

    What I would find interesting is ......how many are actually using it, and do they excercise caveats depending on composition.

  10. #10


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    Without knowing the double deck and six deck table minimums there is really no sense of proportion here for how severe this downswing was. Still, an important lesson about gambling is that experience is a poor teacher and that the results often have no bearing on expectation. If you were betting a max of $100 then losing 20 max bets over the course of twelve hours of play is unfortunate but not entirely uncommon.


    I therefore tend to play until I'm satisfied with my result (either leave early if I'm up a decent amount or stay longer to chase losses)
    This is an unproductive habit which many advantage gamblers adopt. While you will be able to generate a long string of small wins and brag about how infrequently you lose, the end result of quitting any time you are slightly ahead and staying whenever you get buried is that you will end up putting in more volume when the game is bad and less volume when the game is good. So while you may generate an artificial string of winning sessions with this strategy, you will in the long run win significantly less money.

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