See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 58

Thread: Why many players fail at attempting full time play.

  1. #1


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Why many players fail at attempting full time play.

    On another site there is a discussion going on about this subject from an individual attempting it. Today I replied and felt it was worth discussing here, so I will repeat the post.


    Nobody is going to want to hear this, but we should all be truthful here. Let's discuss one very big reason why card counting ends up as a failure for the majority of people that tried doing it fulltime on their own. I am not saying this from experience as I was never a full- time player, I was, and still am a part-time very serious player, but that does not diminish the fact that I learned from reading thousands of threads from the best in the business.

    Does the person who is attempting full time play have another source of income separate from gaming to cover living expenses? If not I do not think they completely understand what they are up against. Of course there are a few rare exceptions to everything like our own member KJ who when he first came out to Vegas was a workaholic averaging around 84 hours a week and living dirt cheap, and him being the honest person that he is will say he was very lucky that he did not start out with a big negative swing.

    You have the edge, you ran the sims for a low ROR and you think you have this made WHAT. Small to midsize bankrolls REQUIRE A HUNDRED PERCENT reinvestment of gaming capital in order for the player to have a good to reasonable chance at success. Sorry, that is the fact. If for example over the last month the player won 3 k gaming and used 3 k for expenses he/she had a break even month. Can anyone see the difficulty in attempting this endeavor? Especially when a normal or bigger size negative swing hits and the player either must take on more risk to meet living expenses or, downsize the unit bet delaying the inevitable outcome. When you are playing with no risk the player does not have to worry about ROR. Life is not fair but the truth hurts sometimes.
    Last edited by BoSox; 03-04-2018 at 01:45 PM.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Excellent post and I hope the full time pros reply honestly to it. For me, the living expenses come from soc. security and a small pension and BJ still is an experiment that has helped. I hope to put in 250 hours at the table and probably another 250 hours in travelling, scouting and driving.

    Its an excellent topic cause early success (variance) leads to decisions of going pro or putting everything into BJ.

    After reading your post, I looked at the first two months of this year....January, I lost $2850, incurred expenses of $1000 to play 40 hours of table time. February, I won $5660, incurred expenses of $1000 after 33 hours of table time. That comes to about $800 win over two months and 73 hours of play or barely over $10 an hour. I guess I play because I have nothing else to do and I am retired.

    Perhaps if you stress the absolute minimum bankroll for red chips players and green chip players to earn $20k+ a year, and repeat it often, people will keep their jobs and play part-time.

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Pit 3 BJ4
    Posts
    863


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Good games pop up for a while and then fade away, leaving garbage games. It takes a lot of discipline to travel 2 or 3 hours to a casino and then find the game isn't playable, then walk away. It sucks to waste that kind of time, but I have found it is better to leave than lose more money on a bad game.

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Excellent post and I hope the full time pros reply honestly to it. For me, the living expenses come from soc. security and a small pension and BJ still is an experiment that has helped. I hope to put in 250 hours at the table and probably another 250 hours in travelling, scouting and driving.

    Its an excellent topic cause early success (variance) leads to decisions of going pro or putting everything into BJ.

    After reading your post, I looked at the first two months of this year....January, I lost $2850, incurred expenses of $1000 to play 40 hours of table time. February, I won $5660, incurred expenses of $1000 after 33 hours of table time. That comes to about $800 win over two months and 73 hours of play or barely over $10 an hour. I guess I play because I have nothing else to do and I am retired.

    Perhaps if you stress the absolute minimum bankroll for red chips players and green chip players to earn $20k+ a year, and repeat it often, people will keep their jobs and play part-time.
    Zee, I will respond in depth to the OP. Let's make it clear, that you're not a pro, you would fail as a pro. You are a recreational player, nothing more, who knows a bit about counting. Absolutely nothing wrong with that.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Zee, I will respond in depth to the OP. Let's make it clear, that you're not a pro, you would fail as a pro. You are a recreational player, nothing more, who knows a bit about counting. Absolutely nothing wrong with that.
    I totally agree and I never claimed I am a pro (pros pay their bills through BJ and I made it clear that I dont!). Please don't make this thread about me. I had the sense to leave the area (back in 1991-1993 I was living in San Bernardino and getting hooked on BJ) when I had some success playing SD BJ at Binions and GN and visiting Las Vegas too often. I was aware of how thoughts about turning pro can come into someone's head.

    Please read my post before getting me into a thread. Just reply to the OP.

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The OP has mentioned KJ as a person who should be looked up to as a model.

    First, he should be congratulated on his success. However, he is an anomaly, and should NOT be referred to as a model. Inspiration - perhaps, model - no. He defied statistical probabilities by living with nothing, on nothing. I guarantee you that, had it been me, that I would have failed. I would never encourage anyone to follow KJ's footsteps.

    Counter fail for several reasons, so let's get that out if the way.
    1. They are not good enough, capitalized or not
    2. They are good enough, but not properly capitalized
    3. They are to emotionally attached to money, even if properly capitalized and good enough
    4. They have other priorities
    5. To many other reasons, to numerous to mention

    So, succeeding as a pro bj player, would seem to have 1 of 2 player backgrounds.

    1. They've just finished school, got the bug, and started playing, Voraciously absorbing all if the material they could get their hands on. They live with their parents, have no living expenses, and can aggressively add to their bankrolls. I mentored such an individual, incredibly talented, who busted out because he didn't believe that statistical consuderations applied to him. There are others, that have succeeded, and succeeded very well.

    2. Family men (women), who've raised children, have successful careers, and have some money put away. These individuals, for a variety of reasons, have started to play. A few of those people became highly motivated. I fall into this category.

    To make it clear, I would never ever considered this as a vocation, as a younger man. I struggled to much, there was little if anything left at the end if the month, I had a young family, I couldn't afford to lose, and I was far to risk averse. I've stated many times how i started to play, so no need to repeat.

    But time marches in, and circumstances change. There came a time, when u started to play, almost reluctantly, annoyed at losing 50-60 bucks an outing. I heard about counting, and started to research the concept. Seems like a very long time ago.

    I still work, prefer to retire, but my wife insists that I need some activity, so I still put in my gruelling 5-6 hour a week work schedule. I'm in a comfortable spot, somewhat better than when KJ started. I have no debt, I have money put away, I don't worry about my next meal, preferring to think about the next time I get to okay with my grandchildren or my sons and their families.

    Win or lose at blackjack, nothing is affected. A nice spot to be in. I don't like to lose. Takes money from casinos is an admirable past time. BJ Aldo spurs my competitive instinct. Ironically, I'm off to my best start ever, with only 40 hours in ytd. Anyways, I digress.

    To be a successful pro, with no other source if income (as opposed to investment income, a natural by product if successful AP play) firstly requires a significant bankroll. A portion must be set aside to account for swings, in order to cover living expenses, during dry times. Another significant portion to be utilized as a playing bankroll, sufficient to generate sufficient money for living expenses, taxes, and Aldo very important, to reinvest into the bankroll (to cover the dry times). Further, this activity needs to be done at a very low ROR, otherwise, the swings will eat you alive.

    There are variations if the above, but that's the gist. One more thing. I don't have the physical stamina a to make it as a full time pro. I have the skills, but not the energy. Further my wife, though she likes travel, does not like gambling trips, so I would do all of that alone. I classify myself as a serious semi pro. I am always on the hunt for new ideas, concepts etc., to improve my game. My .02, fwiw.

  7. #7


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I think in order to play full time successfully you need a few things:

    1) First, and most obvious, is be well funded. I don’t think 100 max bets will suffice in this situation.
    2) Keep a very low RoR. Preferably under 2%.
    3) Keep your expenses in check (personal and travel).
    4) Play a lot of hours!
    5) Keep your cover (costing EV) and tokes in check.
    6) Build a network.
    7) Try to lower your N-Zero as much as you can, whether it means widening your spread or playing better games.

    If you lack in one or more of these categories, then try to compensate for it somewhere else. Example: if you have a hard time logging a ton of hours every year, then I think your focus should be on playing games with a very low N-Zero and try to keep your ROR as close to 0% as you can. You’ll need to keep your personal expenses very low too. If your bankroll isn’t as big as you’d like, then I think your goal should be to grind out an insane amount of hours, drop all cover and NEVER tip. Bankroll survival is your biggest concern at this point, not longevity. Tell me how your longevity looks when you bust out...

    Idealy, every full time player wants to fit all of these categories, but if you can’t meet all those requirements, then you’ll need to make up for it somewhere else. I’m sure I missed a couple things, but this is what came to mind at the top of my head.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Ryemo View Post
    I think in order to play full time successfully you need a few things:

    1) First, and most obvious, is be well funded. I don’t think 100 max bets will suffice in this situation.
    FM- way to low for serious play. I keep a far higher inventory.
    2) Keep a very low RoR. Preferably under 2%.
    FM-prefer less, preferable at .05%.
    3) Keep your expenses in check (personal and travel).
    FM-yes, my normal practices while at home. When on the road, I prefer secure accomodation (no fleabags), and will spend more for good food. Fast food only if unavoidable
    4) Play a lot of hours!
    FM-just finished a brief 2 day trip, only 10 hours, with monstrous results. Still takes time to recover. Agree in principle,e that hours are key.
    5) Keep your cover (costing EV) and tokes in check.
    I make some on purpose errors. My opinion on toking seems to change every so often. Right now, I'm into it, consider it as a cost of biz. It has bought me some time.
    6) Build a network.
    7) Try to lower your N-Zero as much as you can, whether it means widening your spread or playing better games.
    Nice post, I'll put my own thoughts directly under yours.
    Last edited by Freightman; 03-04-2018 at 12:01 PM. Reason: Correct only 19 hours to only 10 hours

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Bosox. Please correct if Im wrong. I dont want to talk about someone who cant defend themselves. But this did come from another sight? Hasn't KJ had two heart attacks before the age of 40? Perhaps he is handling variance or maybe he doesn't realize how much it's handling him?
    Moses, I made a big mistake mentioning someone in a post who cannot respond. I am sorry for that. KJ I believe at least the second time did not have a heart attack but the need to have a change of a valve stint or something similar that was inserted during the first surgery. The first time he had heart surgery I do not know what happened.

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Nice post, I'll put my own thoughts directly under yours.
    Thanks. Likewise. I agree with your points.

    I keep my RoR below 1%. Around .2 or .3% as of late. Sometimes closer to 0%, depending on quality of game. As far as tokes go, I’ve been tipping almost nothing lately. Last two years I tipped around $725-$750 each year. This year I’ve toked a total of $10.
    Last edited by Ryemo; 03-04-2018 at 09:51 AM.

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Moses, I made a big mistake mentioning someone in a post who cannot respond. I am sorry for that. KJ I believe at least the second time did not have a heart attack but the need to have a change of a valve stint or something similar that was inserted during the first surgery. The first time he had heart surgery I do not know what happened.
    If I recall correctly, his first episode was not a heart attack, rather some kind if heart virus that caused some damage and required some valve work. I wasn't aware of a second occurence - perhaps, and likely the same issue. Don't think he's hit forty yet, I'm thinking mid 30's.

  12. #12


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Poor form and you know it.

  13. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You get people that care about you mourning your death unnecessarily and they don't forget it. If you are willing to lie about something as major as that, you will lie about anything. It is just common sense. This gets to the foundation of credibility. Again common sense. It was intended to be humorous. The best humor has a basis in truth.

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Full time play and SCORE
    By LoneWoLF in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 25
    Last Post: 05-07-2016, 07:08 PM
  2. For full time card counters, KJ, others..
    By ZeeBabar in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 69
    Last Post: 12-30-2015, 06:59 AM
  3. Question for full-time players
    By George C in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 08-14-2013, 05:36 PM
  4. What it would take to go full time
    By Oneoffthecount in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 52
    Last Post: 03-19-2012, 08:51 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.