See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 14 to 26 of 26

Thread: Numbers please

  1. #14


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    For some reason, when I am thinking about a problem like this, and I sleep, I wake up with alternate ways to figure things out. I took Bob Dancer's software and set the royal to a very low number -- the variance dropped to between 11 and 12 (about half), and game EV dropped to 98%. So if you looked at what to expect without hitting a royal, 1 SD would be about 12-13,000, and the center of the distribution would be about -$11,000. Roughly +/- 2 SD would be +$14,000 to -$36,000.
    And is it fair to look at the numbers without hitting a royal when im playing more than 50% of the hands that it takes to theoretically hit a royal?

  2. #15
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Below Mason-Dixon Line
    Posts
    442


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    So does this mean that my average loss would be -11k
    +/- 1SD is +1k to -24k
    +/- 2SD is +14k to -36k
    ?
    That's looking at it assuming you will not hit a royal; you have about a 50% chance of hitting a royal with the number of hands you will play.

  3. #16
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Below Mason-Dixon Line
    Posts
    442


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    That's looking at it assuming you will not hit a royal; you have about a 50% chance of hitting a royal with the number of hands you will play.
    This was just to give perspective on what it would look like with no royal.

  4. #17


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    This was just to give perspective on what it would look like with no royal.
    Ok and assuming with a royal it would be:
    Ave win 9k

    +/- 1SD is +21k to -4k
    +/- 2SD is +34k to -16k
    ?

    What are the odds of falling into 1 SD and into 2 SD ?

  5. #18


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    So 68% and 95%?

    Ive heard that VP results are usually tighter on the losing end with morw frequency but wider on the winning end with less frequency, and that it doesnt follow this perfect bell curve..?

  6. #19


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    They ended up closing the account for bonus abuse. No need to go through the hassle
    Yet I never got a response from you......
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  7. #20
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Below Mason-Dixon Line
    Posts
    442


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    What are the odds of falling into 1 SD and into 2 SD ?
    What Three led you to, and you figured out is true for normal distribution.
    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    So 68% and 95%?
    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    Ive heard that VP results are usually tighter on the losing end with morw frequency but wider on the winning end with less frequency, and that it doesnt follow this perfect bell curve..?
    This is true, VP distribution is skewed because of the big royal payoff. That's why the first article I posted was written--to give an alternate and more accurate way to evaluate ROR. Taking out the royal smooths out some of the "skewedness", you just have to realize with the number of hands you are playing there is a very reasonable chance for the royal. Looks like a good play but not a slam dunk (which I would define as 99% surety of a positive outcome), eyeballing it I'd say about 10-20% chance of a negative outcome.

  8. #21
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Below Mason-Dixon Line
    Posts
    442


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Looks like a good play but not a slam dunk (which I would define as 99% surety of a positive outcome), eyeballing it I'd say about 10-20% chance of a negative outcome.
    I don't know the probability assigned to a slam dunk, so I was defining what it meant to me. I've seen basketball pros miss them, so its not 100% in my mind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    So what you are saying is if you don't hit a royal it is tough to beat but if you hit a royal it is tough to lose so the value of the play is based on royal likelihood?
    Even without the royal (1 in 43000 chance, 1.84% of the EV) this is a positive play with the 3.5% cash back but is not a "slam dunk" by my 99% surety definition. If you hit a royal (22500 chances at a 1 in 43000 chance, ~40% to hit 1 or more), yes it would be hard to come up a loser.
    Last edited by Joe Mama; 02-24-2018 at 10:42 AM.

  9. #22


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If you are serious about VP and its many derivations then get this $50 system.

    http://www.videopokerforwinners.com/

    It has excellent simulation capabilities.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  10. #23
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Below Mason-Dixon Line
    Posts
    442


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If you are serious about VP and its many derivations then get this $50 system.

    http://www.videopokerforwinners.com/

    It has excellent simulation capabilities.
    Good advice. All I have is the older "winpoker", useful but not as robust as this newer issue. Problem for me is VP opportunities are not nearly as abundant as they were in my part of the country.

  11. #24


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Yet I never got a response from you......
    Sorry they pissed me off

  12. #25


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Slam dunk i would say 90%+

    If I'm only going to come out a loser 10 to 20% of the time i would consider that a great game

  13. #26
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Below Mason-Dixon Line
    Posts
    442


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    Slam dunk i would say 90%+

    If I'm only going to come out a loser 10 to 20% of the time i would consider that a great game
    I would play the game as described.

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Similar Threads

  1. Hi--opt2 numbers on cv!??
    By RoadWarrior in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-15-2016, 03:30 AM
  2. Different index numbers
    By blueman in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 12-26-2015, 04:15 PM
  3. The numbers behind BS that used to be available at bjmath.com
    By UK-21 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-12-2015, 10:05 AM
  4. sam: the numbers Harrahs is looking for
    By sam in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 10-28-2005, 12:10 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.