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Thread: Numbers please

  1. #1


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    Numbers please

    Can anyone help me out with calculating some numbers?

    I need to play 22,500 hands of video poker NSUD, (dueces wild, pay back of 99.73%)

    I need to know my odds of probable outcomes, like how often will my results be +$x or -$x

    And what kind of swings can i expect after this many hands?

    It is single line $5 per credit
    May the Variance be with you.

  2. #2


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    After you said you'd tell me the name of a casino if I helped you figure out the best way to play the promo, you never told me the name of the casino. Put more simply: Why should someone help you?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #3
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Here's you fishing tutorial -

    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

    And, here's your fishing gear --

    Hand Name Pays out every this many hands --
    ROYAL FLUSH -- 43456.27
    4 DEUCES -- 5355.894
    ROYAL FLUSH W/2 -- 524.4626
    5 OF A KIND -- 321.7049
    STRAIGHT FLUSH -- 194.6748
    4 OF A KIND -- 16.38328
    FULL HOUSE -- 38.29139
    FLUSH -- 48.16292
    STRAIGHT -- 17.44114
    3 OF A KIND -- 3.742689
    NOTHING -- 1.794691

    DEUCES WILD(NSUD)
    Total Return 99.7283%
    Variance 25.78027

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    After you said you'd tell me the name of a casino if I helped you figure out the best way to play the promo, you never told me the name of the casino. Put more simply: Why should someone help you?
    They ended up closing the account for bonus abuse. No need to go through the hassle

  5. #5


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    ok, did i do this correctly?

    SD over 22,500 hands betting $25 a hand ($5 credits x 5 credits)
    variance is 25.78, pay back is 99.73%

    $25 x SqRoot(22500x25.78) = $19,040

    EV after 22,500 is ($25x22500x0.9973)-($25x22500)= -$1518

    so...

    -1SD... +1SD is -$20,558.....+$17,521
    -2SD... +1SD is -$41,116.....+$35,042
    -3SD... +3SD is -$61,674.....+$52,563

    (not sure if you just double the amounts for each standard deviation or how that works exactly)

    is this correct? (and do normal results fall into a tighter loss range and a wider win range?)
    May the Variance be with you.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    ok, did i do this correctly?

    SD over 22,500 hands betting $25 a hand ($5 credits x 5 credits)
    variance is 25.78, pay back is 99.73%

    $25 x SqRoot(22500x25.78) = $19,040

    EV after 22,500 is ($25x22500x0.9973)-($25x22500)= -$1518

    so...

    -1SD... +1SD is -$20,558.....+$17,521
    -2SD... +1SD is -$41,116.....+$35,042
    -3SD... +3SD is -$61,674.....+$52,563

    (not sure if you just double the amounts for each standard deviation or how that works exactly)

    is this correct? (and do normal results fall into a tighter loss range and a wider win range?)
    Looks correct to me assuming results follow a bell shaped curve. Because of the big payofff for the 1 in ~43,000 chance of a royal $$ results do not follow this for the relatively few hands played. If you hit a royal, results will probably be on the positive side, if not then quite a bit negative.

    The article analyzed a similar deuces wild game and came up with a ~6 royal bankroll ($120,000 in your case) needed for a ~5% ROR.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Looks correct to me assuming results follow a bell shaped curve. Because of the big payofff for the 1 in ~43,000 chance of a royal $$ results do not follow this for the relatively few hands played. If you hit a royal, results will probably be on the positive side, if not then quite a bit negative.

    The article analyzed a similar deuces wild game and came up with a ~6 royal bankroll ($120,000 in your case) needed for a ~5% ROR.
    6 royal bankroll for only 22,500 hands played? sounds way too high.
    May the Variance be with you.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Looks correct to me assuming results follow a bell shaped curve. Because of the big payofff for the 1 in ~43,000 chance of a royal $$ results do not follow this for the relatively few hands played. If you hit a royal, results will probably be on the positive side, if not then quite a bit negative.

    The article analyzed a similar deuces wild game and came up with a ~6 royal bankroll ($120,000 in your case) needed for a ~5% ROR.
    i read that results are typically losing often but staying within 1 to 2 SDs where as winning results are less often but typically way high in SDs
    May the Variance be with you.

  9. #9


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    lets say after 22,500 hands the casino will award you with $20,000 free cash. is this a slam dunk go play? odds of winning money after the $20,000 are super high?
    May the Variance be with you.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    lets say after 22,500 hands the casino will award you with $20,000 free cash. is this a slam dunk go play? odds of winning money after the $20,000 are super high?
    Wow! Over 3.5% cash back! This is positive EV even if you eliminate the royal (1,84% of the 99.73% return.) This is equivalent to getting triple the normal number of royals. Not what I would consider a "slam dunk", but a good play.

    The 6 royal bankroll would be for 5% ROR playing millions of hands.
    Last edited by Joe Mama; 02-21-2018 at 04:54 PM.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    lets say after 22,500 hands the casino will award you with $20,000 free cash. is this a slam dunk go play? odds of winning money after the $20,000 are super high?

    Blueman, there are three members on Wongs paid site that could give you the answers you are looking for. Chairman, Captain Jack, and Chaperone. I am no longer a paid member.

  12. #12
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    lets say after 22,500 hands the casino will award you with $20,000 free cash. is this a slam dunk go play? odds of winning money after the $20,000 are super high?
    For some reason, when I am thinking about a problem like this, and I sleep, I wake up with alternate ways to figure things out. I took Bob Dancer's software and set the royal to a very low number -- the variance dropped to between 11 and 12 (about half), and game EV dropped to 98%. So if you looked at what to expect without hitting a royal, 1 SD would be about 12-13,000, and the center of the distribution would be about -$11,000. Roughly +/- 2 SD would be +$14,000 to -$36,000.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    For some reason, when I am thinking about a problem like this, and I sleep, I wake up with alternate ways to figure things out. I took Bob Dancer's software and set the royal to a very low number -- the variance dropped to between 11 and 12 (about half), and game EV dropped to 98%. So if you looked at what to expect without hitting a royal, 1 SD would be about 12-13,000, and the center of the distribution would be about -$11,000. Roughly +/- 2 SD would be +$14,000 to -$36,000.
    So does this mean that my average loss would be -11k
    +/- 1SD is +1k to -24k
    +/- 2SD is +14k to -36k
    ?

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