Side bet count

**Robotxxx** · 02-14-2018, 03:44 AM

Hi, I'm new on here. In my local casino, there is a Blackjack Bonus sidebet which pays 19 to 1. I believe that with counting it would be possible to have an edge but I don't know the Maths or indeed the optimal count.
Currently I count -4 for Aces, -1 for 10s and +1 for everything else.
Anyone have any thoughts as to whether this counting method is good and if so, should i increase the side bet amount as the count gets higher and if so by how much and when?
Apologies, if this is a naive post. Is this side bet common in other locations?

**seriousplayer** · 02-14-2018, 04:25 AM

Originally Posted by Robotxxx

Hi, I'm new on here. In my local casino, there is a Blackjack Bonus sidebet which pays 19 to 1. I believe that with counting it would be possible to have an edge but I don't know the Maths or indeed the optimal count.
Currently I count -4 for Aces, -1 for 10s and +1 for everything else.
Anyone have any thoughts as to whether this counting method is good and if so, should i increase the side bet amount as the count gets higher and if so by how much and when?
Apologies, if this is a naive post. Is this side bet common in other locations?

Could you provide more information on the Blackjack Bonus side bet. Is the name correct or it is Bonus Blackjack side bet. Please list the payout table for the side bet.

**Robotxxx** · 02-14-2018, 04:30 AM

It is a side bet that pays 19 to 1 if you receive a Blackjack

**sbrugby** · 02-14-2018, 04:55 AM

That count seems good. Min bet it at +1, Max bet it @ +2 and higher. Assuming that it's normalish conditions w/ no 6/5.

**Robotxxx** · 02-14-2018, 05:09 AM

Thanks

**Meistro123** · 02-14-2018, 08:11 AM

Anyone have any thoughts as to whether this counting method is good and if so, should i increase the side bet amount as the count gets higher and if so by how much and when?

What you should do is determine the frequency of blackjack by true count, then use that to calculate your edge on this bet, and then divide your edge by 20 and then multiply your bankroll by that resulting sum and wager that amount.

**sbrugby** · 02-14-2018, 08:26 AM

Originally Posted by Meistro123

What you should do is determine the frequency of blackjack by true count, then use that to calculate your edge on this bet, and then divide your edge by 20 and then multiply your bankroll by that resulting sum and wager that amount.

I trust you but why 20 specifically? Odds on BJ are something like 1:21 normally so I'm assuming it's relating to that?

+1(.5% edge)
.005/20 = .00025
.00025 * 10,000 = $2.5

+2 (5% edge)
.05/20= .0025
.0025 * 10,000 = $25

+3(10% edge)
.1/10 = .01
.01 * 10,000 = $100

**DSchles** · 02-14-2018, 08:32 AM

Yes, the above concept is correct. You divide by 20 because it's convenient for calculating the optimal Kelly wager. More precisely, you would divide by 19, as that is the ratio of the payoff of a winning bet to a losing one.

Don

**Freightman** · 02-14-2018, 08:45 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Yes, the above concept is correct. You divide by 20 because it's convenient for calculating the optimal Kelly wager. More precisely, you would divide by 19, as that is the ratio of the payoff of a winning bet to a losing one.

Don

Interesting how different brains are wired. Your formula simplifies, the answer being close at about 5% off. My brain divides by 20 and adds 5%, being off just a tiny smidgen. Brains similar to mine, would divide by 20, add 10%, then divide that 10% by 2, still off the same tiny smidgen - sorta like doubling halves and dividing by 2.

**Meistro123** · 02-14-2018, 08:57 AM

Odds on BJ are something like 1:21 normally so I'm assuming it's relating to that?

Closer to 1:19.4 I believe.

**Freightman** · 02-14-2018, 09:00 AM

Originally Posted by Meistro123

Closer to 1:19.4 I believe.

I stopped sweating the small stuff at 8.37.24 am this morning.

**Meistro123** · 02-14-2018, 09:05 AM

I trust you but why 20 specifically?

Given a particular edge, the more of a longshot the bet is the less of your bankroll you should bet. In fact, you would probably be doing well to divide by 40 instead of 20, especially if you can still obtain a decent hourly with the latter bet. It is generally much better to find even money wagers that you have an edge on rather than longshot wagers because you can bet a much larger percentage of your bankroll on them, and thus make a higher hourly even if your overall edge is lesser. This is why side counting the dragon side bet is mostly a waste of time, even though the overall player advantage can be pretty decent.

Given the decently strong correlation between normal counts and blackjack prediction, I would be surprised if you weren't better off just using a normal count and playing your typical blackjack game, as well as and figuring out a pivot point for this side bet, rather than focusing exclusively on this side bet.