Originally Posted by Dog Hand
Could you please simulate this side bet again with below counting system ?
A-9 : +2
T : -5
Just FYI, the game is 6 decks, but the 1 deck cutoff is correct. Just so I'm clear, what is your definition of 2.92 units per 100 rounds? Does this mean 2.92 units per 100 wagers? Or does it mean 2.92 units per 100 hands of blackjack, only a portion of which the count will be high enough to place this side wager?
Very helpful, thank you DH. It appears you arrived at this number via simulation? If so, what bankroll would your sim indicate as appropriate for a RoR of 0.1 percent assuming a fixed wager of $10 each time the TC meets or exceeds +2 (using my original count)?
knoxstrong,
Ok... I changed the sim to 6D H17 DA2 DAS with 5/6 pen for a heads-up player flat-betting $10/rd on BJ, and also betting $10/rd on the SB whenever the count (using your tags) is +2 or higher. Here is the CVData/CVCX output:
Any 20 8 to 1.jpg
As you can see, a $5,100 BR is sufficient for a RoR of 0.1%.
If you used the TC for playing decisions as well, you could up the WR a smidge.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
knoxstrong,
This primer will demonstrate how to set up and run a sim for your “Any 20 pays 8 to 1” sidebet.
1. Start CVData, select “New”, enter the Sim Name(I typed “Any 20 8-to-1 Sim”), and on the Configuration side, select Templates/Multi-Tracking Simulation: only multi-tracking sims can handle sidebets. Click “Init” to get to the “Setup” page.
Fig 1.jpg
2. On the Setup page, select the number of players (I chose 1), the number of millions of rounds (I chose 1,000 for a 1-billion-round sim), the number of decks (6) and the Shuffle Point (52, which means 52 cards behind the cut card, so 5/6 pen). I left the Rounds per hour at 100 and left the number of threads at 4 (Norm can tell you more about that setting).
Fig 2.jpg
3. Click “Rules” and enter the house rules: I chose H17 and left the rest at their defaults (Split to 4 hands, DAS, DD on any soft or hard hand, dealer peeks on X and A, and Insurance). Naturally, these settings have no effect on your sidebet, since it is resolved on your first two cards.
4. Click “Payoffs”, check to be sure Blackjack pays 15:10, then click the “Set Custom Bonuses” button. Here, select “SideBet1”, check the“Enable SideBet1” box (this changes the page background to orange), and enter a name for the SB ( I entered “Any 20 pays 8-to-1”). In the Player Hand box, set the # of Cards to 2 and the Hand Total to 20. In the Payoffs box, set the Variable to 8 (this means you win 8 times your sidebet wager, or 8-to-1 odds: the “Fixed” option is for a fixed payoff regardless of your SB wager). In theSide Bet box, enter a Bet of 1 (unit), and leave the “Count” box at -99, so that you’ll play the sidebet at all counts of -99 and above (note, later, when you determine the “Trigger Point” for your sidebet, you’ll re-run this sim, but set the Count to your Trigger Value). In the Conditions box, I set the Split Hands spinner to 0 and unchecked the “DD Hands Count” box: since we’re going to be playing Basic Strategy, we won’t be splitting X’s. At the bottom of the screen, check the “First Two Cards (pre-split)” box. Click “Exit”.
Fig 4.jpg
5. Click the “Playing” tab, then click the“Define/Edit Strategies” button. Here, we’ll set up a playing strategy where the player will use Basic Strategy but will count the cards using the tags that we pre-selected: in this case, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, -2 for A through X. On the Playing Strategy Configurator page, click “Create a new Playing Strategy”. In Strategy Name, enter a name (here I entered “BS Any 20 8-to-1”: I start the name with BS to indicate it’s a basic strategy). In the folder list, select Playing Strategies/Primary Counting Strategies/Basic Strategies/CompleteBasic Strategy. Click “Init”.
Fig 5.jpg
6. On the “Determine Type of Strategy” page, click the “Counts” icon. For True Count Divisor, select “Full decks”. Under Options, check the “Half point support” option, because our tags include values of 0.5. In the Card Point Values, enter the tags, as shown. (Note that to simulate your original tags, you don’t need the “Half point support” option, since your tags are all integers). Click “Exit”. CVData will then ask which strategy you want to use: select the one you just created.
Fig 6.jpg
See next post for the rest of the primer.
Dog Hand
This is a continuation of the previous post.
7. Click Betting, and on the Betting Strategy page, select the Standard Strategy/Flat Bet and click Attach Existing Strategy. Back on the Betting page, select your unit size (I generally use $100 for simplicity). Click the Start Sim button to begin the simulation.
8. After the sim finishes, click the Won/Lost drop-down list and select Custom Side Bets. Here, we see the overall EV of the sidebet is about -4.932% (this is not exactly correct because of the cut-card effect), but the edge swings to the player’s side at a TC of +2: this tells us that +2 is the Trigger Count for this sidebet using the tags specified.
Fig 8.png
9. Close the Sim output and Exit from the Archive. Return to the Payoffs tab, go back to Set Custom Bonuses, select SideBet1, and in the Side Bet box set the Count to 2, so that in the next sim you’ll play the SB only at +2 and up. Rerun the sim, then click the Won/Lost drop-down list and select Custom Side Bets. Here, we see a healthy advantage when playing the SB at +2 & up.
Fig 9.png
10. Click the Summary tab. Here, we see the player has an overall 2.567% advantage. Click the Call CVCX button.
Fig 10.jpg
11. Here, if you set the Custom Bets to be $3 for TC’s of +1 & below, and $10 for TC’s of +2 & up, you can see that a $3K BR will have a RoR of 0.1%. The Custom information at the bottom of the screen shows a healthy 6.6% edge… nice! Also, if you sum up the red count frequencies, you’ll see that you’ll bet $3 75% of the time, and $10+$10 the other 25% of the time.
Fig 11.jpg
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
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