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Thread: High Edge Side Bets

  1. #1


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    High Edge Side Bets

    I've been very lucky to come across some incredible side bets lately. I came across another I'm looking into. The side bet is the player hand totaling 20 on any first two cards dealt. The payout is completely independent of the outcome on the blackjack hand and the dealer hand. The payout is 8:1. Off the top the house has a clear advantage, but with counting this appears to have incredible upside.

    Can someone with the appropriate knowledge confirm that this side bet should be profitable at a true count of 2 or greater with the following tags?

    • A:0
    • 2-9: 1
    • 10s: -2


    As a nice little bonus, this count shows an insurance correlation over 98%. However, I'm only concerned with ensuring I will have a positive EV at a true count of 2 or greater.

  2. #2


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    Buy Advanced Advantage Play by Eliot Jacobson. Your answer is likely in that book. I'd check but I'm travelling and don't have it with me.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You have to be careful with side bets that correlate well to a traditional main bet BJ count. Often they are there to make identifying counters easier and more certain.
    This 1 critter comped me dinner after a lousy session, from which I came back from after dinner. She didn't seem to happy with me, with my steamer spread to 2 squares including kings bounty side bets. She wouldn't Comp me dinner next day, because i didn't have a player card.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by knoxstrong View Post
    I've been very lucky to come across some incredible side bets lately. I came across another I'm looking into. The side bet is the player hand totaling 20 on any first two cards dealt. The payout is completely independent of the outcome on the blackjack hand and the dealer hand. The payout is 8:1. Off the top the house has a clear advantage, but with counting this appears to have incredible upside.

    Can someone with the appropriate knowledge confirm that this side bet should be profitable at a true count of 2 or greater with the following tags?

    • A:0
    • 2-9: 1
    • 10s: -2


    As a nice little bonus, this count shows an insurance correlation over 98%. However, I'm only concerned with ensuring I will have a positive EV at a true count of 2 or greater.

    Just had another peek at this. Of course, Dog hand is your man. Seems to me, for greater accuracy, you need to give some weight to an Ace,Nine twenty.

    so, how bout
    2,3,4,5,6,7,8 are 1
    A,9 are -2
    10's are -4

    Thus would be unbalanced, so either cakculate a pivot point where it would pay, or start with -4 per deck to make it balanced. Don't think plus 2 will do it though. I'm sure Don has something about frequency if 20's in BJA3. Also, CVData.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Yeah. An unbalance -13/deck. I think you didn't think this through properly.
    Hey, you're right. Dazzle us with your brilliance. Try to do it in 1 paragraph,

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post

    I am not trying to outdo anyone. It isn't a contest.

    If I wanted to dazzle you with my brilliance I would have spent more than 10 seconds thinking about it. I could definitely do better.
    Of course you are. Outdoing everyone is the crux of your modus operandi. And if course, I would much rather you dazzle me with brilliance than bite the shit out of me with verbosity.

  7. #7


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    Guys, honestly. Instead of getting into a **** measuring contest, can someone please address the question of whether my system will ensure a positive EV at a true count of 2 or greater? That is all I care about here. Thanks for the efforts.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I am supposed to make stupid suggestions so they fit in with the ones you make or try to help people think outside the box by giving strong suggestions? Is it my fault I think of better ways to do things? Am I supposed to try to think of weaker ways to do things so you don't feel inferior about your abilities. Just lose the chip on your shoulder and stop thinking it is a contest. I thought for a simple approach the OP's approach was strong. It was you that started offering other approaches. Once I started thinking about other approaches this was the simplest approach to use without using a 2 man team to play both the main bet and the side bet in a strong way.
    I don’t care if u make stupid suggestions, provided you do do brieflly. Think highly of yourself should you do desire, but please articulate - Briefly. You don’t need to do anything to fit n with my thought process. You are more than capable of doing dumb things without assistance.

    Oh- absolutely hopeless. We need some sanity. Where is Zee?

    Think I getting cataracts. It not a bad think, since I’ll miss ur meshugas. Anyways , someone has a yahrtzeit and it’s Marriv.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by knoxstrong View Post
    Guys, honestly. Instead of getting into a **** measuring contest, can someone please address the question of whether my system will ensure a positive EV at a true count of 2 or greater? That is all I care about here. Thanks for the efforts.
    What is the name of the side bet?
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by knoxstrong View Post
    Can someone with the appropriate knowledge confirm that this side bet should be profitable at a true count of 2 or greater with the following tags?

    A:0
    2-9: 1
    10s: -2
    Jacobsen's book (Advanced Advantage Play or APheat.com) has a count system to beat the Kings Bounty (?) side bet at TC9 with a nice advantage of over 12%. Several knobs and switches, so suggest you do your homework.

    True 2 at Hi Lo will not get the bacon.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #11


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    Unfortunately I don't know the name of the side bet, I just know it pays 8:1 on any 20 dealt to the player on the first two cards. I need to ensure I'm only wagering when I have the edge. I believe a TC of 2 using my count will work, just need some confirmation.

  12. #12


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    8 to 1 on any 20 ,eh? nice !

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by knoxstrong View Post
    I've been very lucky to come across some incredible side bets lately. I came across another I'm looking into. The side bet is the player hand totaling 20 on any first two cards dealt. The payout is completely independent of the outcome on the blackjack hand and the dealer hand. The payout is 8:1. Off the top the house has a clear advantage, but with counting this appears to have incredible upside.

    Can someone with the appropriate knowledge confirm that this side bet should be profitable at a true count of 2 or greater with the following tags?

    • A:0
    • 2-9: 1
    • 10s: -2


    As a nice little bonus, this count shows an insurance correlation over 98%. However, I'm only concerned with ensuring I will have a positive EV at a true count of 2 or greater.
    knoxstrong,

    Assuming this is an 8D game with 1 deck cut off, your tags will earn about 2.92 units per spot per 100 rounds by betting the SB at +2 and higher.

    Slightly better results, 2.96/100, can be achieved by counting both the A and the 9 as +0.5 and again using +2 as the trigger.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    EDIT: just to clarify, the win rates mentioned above are for the sidebet only; they do not include the main BJ bet.
    Last edited by Dog Hand; 02-08-2018 at 07:11 AM.

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