Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 18

Thread: When you achieve goal early, stop or keep playing ?

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    192
    Blog Entries
    5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    When you achieve goal early, stop or keep playing ?

    In CVCX, when you set your bank roll as $10000, it provides $5 as minium bet (RoR as 0.025%). When you set trip goal as $200 for 5 hours play, expected results is $75. Probability for 66.7% is -$388 to $538.
    When you won $200 in 'TWO' hours, it is pretty good performance. In this situation, would you like to stop playing or keep doing it ? In my experience, most times, I lose earnings back and become just even or go negative. Luckiness and opposite comes back and forth. "The more hours you play, more money you get ?" Not always true.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I understand your method of thinking, but no, keep playing. You're just as likely to lose half your winnings back straight away as you are to lose them back the next day or a week later. Or, you might win more!

  3. #3
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    1,492


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Never underestimate the psychological aspect of gambling. If you acheive the goal, stop and enjoy for a day or week whatever, enjoy,,,because losing it back right away will eat away at you, no matter what anyone says. Take time to smell the roses, because after the big losses their will be no smelling of roses.

    Ouchez.

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    1,055


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If you're playing at an advantage it's just like any other job. The more time you put in-----the more you make.

    muffdiver

  5. #5
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Rosario (Argentina)
    Posts
    27


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Dispite any psychological aspect:


    You have achieved a goal, now 2 options:


    1) Stop playing: EV does not change
    2) keep playing: EV does not change


    Cards and chips do not know when "a session" has finished and when the next hand (maybe months after) begins.


    It's just a continous process, time in the middle of the hands doesn't make sense to the cards.


    Stop playing is for aspects like heat, rest, and psycho.

  6. #6
    Member BookerPA's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    87


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Ouchez View Post
    Never underestimate the psychological aspect of gambling. If you acheive the goal, stop and enjoy for a day or week whatever, enjoy,,,because losing it back right away will eat away at you, no matter what anyone says. Take time to smell the roses, because after the big losses their will be no smelling of roses.

    Ouchez.
    Concur 110%. I've been around this game longer than most members here; have a player's card from a closed casino in AC dated 1981. Many times I've left after one shoe. Most recently, playing green chips and after one shoe was plus 16 units by virtue of BJ, doubles and splits. Adios local store. Brings to mind what an old timer told me when I was much, much younger and was trading options. He was not a formally schooled individual but very wise. I had just turned a good profit in one morning with DEC call options, about 7K and remarked to him that it was going to be a huge day. "Son, remember, the Bears and the Bulls make money, the pigs get slaughtered."

  7. #7
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    1,055


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I don't see the rationale in quitting a positive game unless it would be for heat reasons, dead tired and unable to function or other extenuating circumstance.
    Is it just me that thinks that way?

    muffdiver

  8. #8
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,815


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Ouchez View Post
    Never underestimate the psychological aspect of gambling. If you achieve the goal, stop and enjoy for a day or week whatever, enjoy,,,because losing it back right away will eat away at you, no matter what anyone says. Take time to smell the roses, because after the big losses their will be no smelling of roses.
    Ouchez.
    No matter what level you play, this is such an important part of the game and learning process. Unfortunately it is not discussed nearly enough on message boards, nor publications and especially not communicated enough to newer players and members beginning their journey. Beginning my 9th year of full-time play, this is definitely the area that I struggle in the most.

    As for stopping and smelling the roses, I have come to understand this a little bit more in the last year. I now try to schedule a little time to do just this more often. Whether winning or losing, taking a step back, taking a breath and enjoying life a bit helps with that psychological aspect and puts everything back in perspective.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    My AP experience is limited to less than 10 years. I have made many mistakes of quitting too soon or not quitting. Here I would like to make a list to share with you my thoughts. They are not all original ideas. Credits should give to forum discussions and books that I read too. Feel free to add or edit the list.

    When to quit:
    1. Heat
    2. When play rated, one should quit at the end of 1 or 2 maximum bet cycles, depend on how much covers in use.
    3. If heat is not an issue, such as for low stakes game or friendly shops, one can play longer but quit after winning an substantial amount (varies depend on one's own situation).
    4. When one don't have at least 10 maximum bet fund available (in cash, chips, credit line or ATM). It is a huge mistake to be forced to quit when the shoe/deck is 'hot'. Don't sit down or start a new shoe without sufficient fund neither.
    5. Tired or drunk or distractions
    6. One can spend quality time on other activities that one values more than EV.
    7. Quit if one have a better game to play.
    8. Quit to allow a record of loss. This will help one's longevity. The bigger the loss the longer the pit crew would remember.

    I will make a list for when not to quit when I have more time.
    Last edited by peaegg; 02-07-2012 at 08:49 AM.

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I never set time or amount stop limits when I'm playing, I find that to be exceptionally dangerous to do so for me...I quit when I feel like it or when I've lost the ability to play at or near an optimum game for whatever reason.

    Having said that, there are some people who thrive on living life through short and long term goals .... If I did this I'd have blown my head off long ago ... But for many people continuous gaol setting and achievement is absolutely necessary.
    So if you are one of those people that have a preset stop point whether by time or amount, make sure you stick to your guns no matter what.

  11. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    1,055


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    When I work, I work very hard and make lots of money/hour. At around 6 to 8 hours when most hourly workers get a pay bump my productivity decreases causing my hourly to go down since my pay is based on results not time. The work of an AP is more like the latter than the former. Play to long and you make mistakes and need to use more cover which costs you money. You also can hurt longevity at a good game which is extremely costly in the long run. In theory you should keep playing but real life and theory are two different things. The costs of playing too long are real.
    I don't disagree with what you said, but you'll notice that I said "if you're playing with an advantage" you'll make more by playing longer.
    The things you mention do tend to decrease the advantage for most but in varying degrees.

    muffdiver

  12. #12
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    east
    Posts
    456


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    There are variables that enter into the correct answer and some very good responses on both sides. I don’t know why, but leaving with a decent win AFTER some max bets at the end of a shuffle or shoe seems to work for the reasons Ouchez gave. Tthree saying “The costs of playing too long are real.” Is also right on. If the game is good, you might kill it by staying too long. Enjoy the win and strut around, have fun and enjoy it. It’s good for you confidence and enjoyment of your craft. I have seen way too many happy wins turn sad. Don’t do it. There is no reason to rub it in their face and risk burning the game. If the game is good and you are there too long winning, you will be counted down eventually or the pendulum might swing negative. Take your win with no heat and enjoy the rewards of your talent.

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I'd lean towards STOP. Whats the point of setting a target if you're going to simply ignore it? Other than application of knowledge, its also discipline that separates us from civilians. The most I'd stay for is to finish the shoe, only if its still favourable and only if the heat is minimal.
    Last edited by Roswell Crash Survivor; 02-11-2012 at 01:07 AM.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.