Lost $1500 in 3 hours - my first big defeat in 160 hours of Playing...

**Planisphere** · 01-14-2018, 07:09 PM

8-Deck (~69% penetration; cut 2.5deck. Lousy penetration I know)
BJ paid 3-to-2
DAS (and double on any cards)
RSA (upto 4 times)
Late Surrender
Peek for BJ on 10s or Aces (The more I play, the more I appreciate the dealer peeking on Tens for BJ)
Minimum $10 (I use 1-20 spread)
***ZERO HEAT (I play at a foreigner-only casino located in Asia; but tables are usually full. Very small casino)

I've consistently made small profits each day (160 hours - made $6500 until yesterday...), but I lost $1500 in 3 hours today. I've had several moments where TC reached higher than +4, but I think I lost all my high-spread bets except one or two times. In the past, I'd never lost more than $500 in one day, otherwise I played more and eventually balanced my loss with profit.

My friends (know nothing about gambling) tell me it's time to quit, that I will eventually lose more. I don't know if I should quit or not.

I know the penetration is really lousy, so I am planning to go to another foreigner-only casino here (I live in an Asian country) which has much better rules (6-deck with 1 deck cut; BUT THE MINIMUM IS $100). I am planning to try wong-in at +4 which fits the minimum bet value for me.

I still can't get out from today's loss. I don't know if I should blame on the lousy penetration, or accept the variance.

Would wonging-in the new game that has the better penetration give me better results than playing the whole lousy-penetration shoe game?

I know the thread sounds like a whining baby - I'm here just to share my story. I'm open to all kinds of responses.

Thank you.

**Freightman** · 01-14-2018, 07:29 PM

124 cards (5.61/8 dealt) cut out, on a full table sharing true 4 with everyone else. You've been lucky. What's your bankroll?

**Three** · 01-14-2018, 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by Planisphere

My friends (know nothing about gambling) tell me it's time to quit, that I will eventually lose more. I don't know if I should quit or not.

It's not time to quit but you will definitely have much worse sessions eventually. Heads up in a deeply dealt shoe $3K to $5K losses are not that uncommon. When you hit that really bad one where you split to 4 hands and double many of them and have 6 or 7 max bets lost on several rounds in one shoe resulting In a loss twice that large then you might have seen the worst of it. But if you continue to play long enough you will even lose more than that in one shoe. It is in the best conditions, heads up/ really high count/ very deep pen/ max bets early in the shoe that last until the end of the she, when you are most vulnerable to huge losses. You will make many of max bets and probably get lots of doubles and splits but you could lose every hand.

If you play long enough it will happen. Of course much of the time you will do quite well when you find yourself playing these conditions. Just remember, in the long run you will win a set percentage the total of all bets properly made at each bet level. The wins and losses may clump along the way but just properly making those bets add to your long run average win or lose if you play for a long enough time. That is how counting works. Anything can and will happen in the short run but eventually results should approach expectation. You just need the BR and stones to make it to the long run.

**Planisphere** · 01-14-2018, 08:19 PM

Originally Posted by Freightman

124 cards (5.61/8 dealt) cut out, on a full table sharing true 4 with everyone else. You've been lucky. What's your bankroll?

Ouch...I thought my skills played some part in the results but...Yeah EV wise I should've made only as little as $15~20/hour.
My bankroll, let's say $10,000.

My ultimate question is: Should I keep playing in Casino A (8-deck; lousy penetration), or ONLY wong-in in Casino B (6-deck;1-deck cut; high minimum)?

**Casanova** · 01-14-2018, 08:26 PM

[QUOTE=Planisphere;239093Should I keep playing in Casino A (8-deck; lousy penetration), or ONLY wong-in in Casino B (6-deck;1-deck cut; high minimum)?[/QUOTE]

Casino B

**Freightman** · 01-14-2018, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by Planisphere

Ouch...I thought my skills played some part in the results but...Yeah EV wise I should've made only as little as $15~20/hour.
My bankroll, let's say $10,000.

My ultimate question is: Should I keep playing in Casino A (8-deck; lousy penetration), or ONLY wong-in in Casino B (6-deck;1-deck cut; high minimum)?

The fact that you're asking these types of questions suggests to me that you're a rather new player, and may not be up to snuff on everything you need to know, as well as not being seasoned enough to gain additional EV thru nuance play. The 8 deck game, with 2.38 decks cut, should be dead to you. It's total shit. Your frequency of true counts of plus 4 will be infrequent, and as you say, you have to share those hands with a full table.playing this game will lead to a slow and painful death.

5.0/6 with $100 min wonging in with a 10k bankroll is still rich for you. The following points need to be made. Granted, I don't know your marketplace, but $100 min tables are usually pretty quiet. A well bankrolled skilled player, assuming the same or better rules as your 8d game, with 5.0/6 will have a field day, assuming heads up play. Your ability to Wong into this game will likely be negated by NMSE, or entry at players okay. A skilled player will never let you into a true 4 situation. In other words, you can't Wong in.

That leaves a Hail Mary bankroll to play all on 5.0/6. Have you got the balls? Is your bankroll replenish able.

That's the way I see it.

**Red Green** · 01-14-2018, 09:41 PM

I am just a beginner, so more senior members can vet this answer, but based on 8D, 5.5/8 pen, 10K BR, 1-20 spread at $10 base unit, assume HILo full index, your RoR is terrible (almost 50%). At full tables, maybe 60 hands/hour? EV/Hr is $10. Wonging in at +4 on the other game with a $100 minimum game...what will you spread? 1-10? ROR still crazy high at >46%. Even 1 - 5 is still more than 30%. That is definitely gambling! Unless you want to gamble, I think you're under bankrolled. $20K would be much better on 1-5 on the 6D game.

As Freightman was, I think, implying, if you're BR is fully replenishable you can play at a theoretical BR of $20K.

And...in three hours at this level it would be reasonable (w/i 1 SD) to lose $3500 in three hours. At 1-10 you could be puking your guts out with a $5400 loss in three hours if the god of variance sweeps you to the left 1 SD. On the other hand, you could win, too. My gut feeling is that on actual bankroll you're running with short term variance and I suspect gravity pulls harder in the short term. That is, its harder to recover from losses as your top bet can get downgraded.

The short answer is neither game is very good. Play at your own risk.

I stand to be corrected of course, and encourage that as I'm still getting my feet wet on the technical side.

**Freightman** · 01-14-2018, 09:55 PM

Originally Posted by Red Green

I am just a beginner, so more senior members can vet this answer, but based on 8D, 5.5/8 pen, 10K BR, 1-20 spread at $10 base unit, assume HILo full index, your RoR is terrible (almost 50%). At full tables, maybe 60 hands/hour? EV/Hr is $10. Wonging in at +4 on the other game with a $100 minimum game...what will you spread? 1-10? ROR still crazy high at >46%. Even 1 - 5 is still more than 30%. That is definitely gambling! Unless you want to gamble, I think you're under bankrolled. $20K would be much better on 1-5 on the 6D game.i

As Freightman was, I think, implying, if you're BR is fully replenishable you can play at a theoretical BR of $20K.

And...in three hours at this level it would be reasonable (w/i 1 SD) to lose $3500 in three hours. At 1-10 you could be puking your guts out with a $5400 loss in three hours if the god of variance sweeps you to the left 1 SD. On the other hand, you could win, too. My gut feeling is that on actual bankroll you're running with short term variance and I suspect gravity pulls harder in the short term. That is, its harder to recover from losses as your top bet can get downgraded.

The short answer is neither game is very good. Play at your own risk.

I stand to be corrected of course, and encourage that as I'm still getting my feet wet on the technical side.

Always good to get your feet wet. Right or wrong, shows you're thinking.

**stopgambling** · 01-14-2018, 11:11 PM

Originally Posted by Red Green

Wonging in at +4 on the other game with a $100 minimum game...what will you spread? 1-10? ROR still crazy high at >46%. Even 1 - 5 is still more than 30%.

He can only wong in and flat bet $100 at tc4 for the game to be any good . One need to know the ROR and CE of a game before attempting to bet money they don't want to lose .

**Member Name Hidden** · 01-15-2018, 12:03 AM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

He can only wong in and flat bet $100 at tc4 for the game to be any good . One need to know the ROR and CE of a game before attempting to bet money they don't want to lose .

Never bet anything you can't afford to lose.

**Meistro123** · 01-15-2018, 02:23 AM

50 max bets is not enough. You should decrease your max bet. I prefer playing with > 300 max bets. 7 max bet downswings are extremely common. I've had two 25 max bet downswings recently although luckily they were both immediately followed by equivalent upswings.

**Planisphere** · 01-15-2018, 02:27 AM

So my ultimate question is: Should I keep playing in Casino A (8-deck; lousy penetration), or ONLY wong-in in Casino B (6-deck;1-deck cut; high minimum)?