what can i do next after loss of 5.4k?

[pokerfan]

I just lost about $5.4k within roughly 10 hours of these two days using felt-f on $50 min DD table(50% cut,h17,das,no heat). I only spread two hands with one or two other players on TC+5 or above and try my best to play alone. When i finally have the chance to play headsup with the dealer, i only switch to two hands on TC+6 and bet about 75% of one hand. Is there anything fundamentally wrong with my play(1-6 spread with two hands of max $200 each). I'm so frustrated right now after such a huge swing and variance during such short period of time. Should i learn halves or hiop2 with ASC? Is this shitty game really worth it? Should i quit BJ and continue FULL time poker instead?

[ZeeBabar]

I just lost about $5.4k within roughly 10 hours of these two days using felt-f on $50 min DD table(50% cut,h17,das,no heat). I only spread two hands with one or two other players on TC+5 or above and try my best to play alone. When i finally have the chance to play headsup with the dealer, i only switch to two hands on TC+6 and bet about 75% of one hand. Is there anything fundamentally wrong with my play(1-6 spread with two hands of max $200 each). I'm so frustrated right now after such a huge swing and variance during such short period of time. Should i learn halves or hiop2 with ASC? Is this shitty game really worth it? Should i quit BJ and continue poker instead?

I think how you play and what you get at TC +5 and Tc+6 are not as important as how and what you get at TC+2 and TC+3 and TC+4. You should be playing 2 x $200 at TC +2 or TC+3 in a $50 minimum game.

I suspect you were severely underbetting in the positive counts that come up far more often. TC+5 and TC+6 come up far less often to make up for all the hands you loose at negative TC, you have to ramp up fast.

[pokerfan]

I think how you play and what you get at TC +5 and Tc+6 are not as important as how and what you get at TC+2 and TC+3 and TC+4. You should be playing 2 x $200 at TC +2 or TC+3 in a $50 minimum game.

I suspect you were severely underbetting in the positive counts that come up far more often. TC+5 and TC+6 come up far less often to make up for all the hands you loose at negative TC, you have to ramp up fast.

I prefer to play $25 min table(1-8 spread) and ramp up fast comfortably there.But $25 min tables in my area are always full. I seem to lose all the time on these crowded tables even if I spread two hands with my max bets on TC7+ AND other players just eat my good cards.

[Freightman]

I prefer to play $25 min table(1-8 spread) and ramp up fast comfortably there.But $25 min tables in my area are always full. I seem to lose all the time on these crowded tables even if I play two hands with my max bets on TC7+ AND other players just eat my good cards.

Even at 25 min, 5.4k loss is not outside the realm of probability. Trust me - I know.

Swings like this are why you need bankroll. Further, mixing games with different mins and limits can play short term havoc with variance, though everything comes out well, usually, in the end.

Last but not least - get over it. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

[Joe Mama]

I've had almost as bad at a similar game in two 1 hr. back to back sessions at two different stores. Variance happens, this too shall pass.

[Freightman]

I think how you play and what you get at TC +5 and Tc+6 are not as important as how and what you get at TC+2 and TC+3 and TC+4. You should be playing 2 x $200 at TC +2 or TC+3 in a $50 minimum game.

I suspect you were severely underbetting in the positive counts that come up far more often. TC+5 and TC+6 come up far less often to make up for all the hands you loose at negative TC, you have to ramp up fast.

Zee, nice post. You hit on a real good point - that ramp at marginal advantage. Let's forget any debate on stronger counts better calculating marginal advantage or disadvantage over weaker counts.

The salient point - ramping at that marginal advantage - first, because it is an advantage, and secondly, to prepare fir the next parlay at higher advantage.

I've seen a lot of counters delay their ramp on this point alone, including 1 forum member, who thinks they're hot shit, who doesn't know who I am, but I know who he is.

[pokerfan]

Even at 25 min, 5.4k loss is not outside the realm of probability. Trust me - I know.

Swings like this are why you need bankroll. Further, mixing games with different mins and limits can play short term havoc with variance, though everything comes out well, usually, in the end.

Last but not least - get over it. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

Do you even play with 2+ other players under these DD rules?I find it hard to beat in these shitty situations.

[Freightman]

Do you even play with 2+ other players under these DD rules?I find it hard to beat in these shitty situations.

I'll play shitty double deck with 2 others, as long as I have a reasonable belief that the others will bail shortly. Remember, especially if this us not a home location - be a pig. Don't worry about what your table mates think - just do what us in your best interests to do.

Now, I don't know the rules or deck pen of your particular game, and any specific answer would depend on that. In general terms on dd games - I've mentioned before - crushing a quality dd game with minimal 1-4, 1-5 spread, and utilized a modest 1x25 to 2x500 on a shitty game, both heads up. Similar to the shitty game just mentioned, spreading 1x25 to 1x200 or 250 at not to far a distance from the shitty game just mentioned. You need to make decisions on a store by store basis, sim games in your head, and on the fly, guaging tolerance p, all the while looking like joe putz the Ploppy.
Last but not least - your best scenario for profit is heads up - it's also your worst fir getting the crap kicked out of you.

[pokerfan]

I'm using level 2 count.
On $25 table, my betting ramp is 50(2),50(3),100(4),150(5),200(6+)
$50 table,100(2),150(3),200(4),300(5+)
With two hands, I bet 75% of one hand.Actually I don't travel at all and only play at my local 6 casinos with the same rules and pen.

[Freightman]

I'm using level 2 count.
On $25 table, my betting ramp is 50(2),50(3),100(4),150(5),200(6+)
$50 table,100(2),150(3),200(4),300(5+)
With two hands, I bet 75% of one hand.

Still don't know the rules. Regardless, your ramp is seriously substandard, especially at 2,3, 4, maybe at 5,6 delending on rules and pen.

[pokerfan]

Still don't know the rules. Regardless, your ramp is seriously substandard, especially at 2,3, 4, maybe at 5,6 delending on rules and pen.

H17,DAS,No resplitting aces,split 4 times.no surrender,pen 50%. As I said, I don't travel outside my region and only play at my local 6 stores with the same shitty rules.

[Freightman]

H17,DAS,No splitting aces,split 4 times.no surrender,pen 50%. As I said, I don't travel outside my region and only play at my local 6 stores with the same shitty rules.

You're getting shattered. The 50% deck pen is killing you. You need to play this heads up as much as possible - you need to ramp far more quickly and aggressively in the lower plus counts - you need a far higher spread, and I mean much higher, to make money on that game - which means a far far higher max bet - you need a strong bankroll to overcome the variance that comes with this game.

Do you live north of the 49th? Sounds like a metro area that I'm heading to in a few weeks time. If so, consider the 6 deck games available in your general metro area that are available at min $25 and up. Other than that, it's a CSM wasteland.

[Freightman]

Up $14k in 70 hours. Down $5.4 in 10 hours. Im thinking 50% pen creating far mor volatility than the count employed. Loads of prime bet opportunities have been shuffled away in 80 hours.

Sounds like on helluva roller coaster.

He's been lucky so far - the math is the math, and sooner or later, the day if reckoning will come. This is a wake up call. Pokerfan, get CVCX at the least, so that you can, for yourself, see what you're up against.

He can beat this shit game, but he needs to be able to withstand variance, and needs bankroll to do it.