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Thread: Doubling 8 against 5 at high TC - the principle behind it?

  1. #1


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    Doubling 8 against 5 at high TC - the principle behind it?

    8-Deck Shoe Game (~69% lousy penetration)

    I use Hi-Opt II + ASC. Yesterday, I had a chance to hit or double 8 against 5 at +4 TC (I use 'flooring' when calculating for TC; it was somewhere between +4 and +5). I was so eager to double, but the index was doubling at +6 TC or above. The dealer showed his down card, which was a 10, and busted so I won.

    I know I followed the index and I shouldn't regret about it - but was wondering for the reason we double 8 against 5.

    Are we doubling in hope of getting 18 or 19, or in hope of dealer to bust?

  2. #2


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    The principal is because the sims of hundreds of millions of rounds indicate your long term overall best results are to double at TC +6 or greater. There is no hope involved.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    The principal is because the sims of hundreds of millions of rounds indicate your long term overall best results are to double at TC +6 or greater. There is no hope involved.
    oh..

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    8-Deck Shoe Game (~69% lousy penetration)

    I use Hi-Opt II + ASC. Yesterday, I had a chance to hit or double 8 against 5 at +4 TC (I use 'flooring' when calculating for TC; it was somewhere between +4 and +5). I was so eager to double, but the index was doubling at +6 TC or above. The dealer showed his down card, which was a 10, and busted so I won.

    I know I followed the index and I shouldn't regret about it - but was wondering for the reason we double 8 against 5.

    Are we doubling in hope of getting 18 or 19, or in hope of dealer to bust?
    You are hoping for both, whichever gets the job done. With the poor penetration and modest 1-10 spread, you need all the help you can get. Cross your fingers and your toes!

    At +5 the chance of receiving a 10 is increased as is the probability of the dealer breaking. However, at + 5, the dealer still won't break 50% of the time. I think it's 47%, maybe slightly less for the 8 decks.

    You mentioned in an earlier post that there was no heat on this game. If that's the case and that was the best game available, I would attack it with a minimum of a 1-30 spread. If I didn't have the bankroll I would start building until I did.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    The principal is because the sims of hundreds of millions of rounds indicate your long term overall best results are to double at TC +6 or greater. There is no hope involved.
    Further, the issue if of risk averse doubles comes into play. I don't know what the indexes are for hi Opt 2, but fir halves, the indices are 1 and 3 for doubling 8 v6 and 5 respectively. I don't use those indexes, preferring risk averse doubles (not always followed) of plus 3 and 5.

    I use risk averse, not for risk averse purposes, but more for cover purposes as the matchup is so common, that doubling always at index would make it easier for the pit to pick you off.

    One last point, and that is that your long term gain of doubling always at index is minimal - further, but using RA, you are capturing most if the expected value. There's a lot more to that point, than crept to say at 8 deck 69% pen, a lousy game to begin with, the opportunity to use RA is going to be minimal.

  6. #6


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    At +5 the chance of receiving a 10 is increased as is the probability of the dealer breaking. However, at + 5, the dealer still won't break 50% of the time. I think it's 47%, maybe slightly less for the 8 decks.
    That's interesting. I had a weird situation the other day where the count was +6 and I had a stiff vs a 5. The dealer grabbed my hand and put it in the discard tray, essentially forcing a break even result as my bet was left untouched. I was playing two hands and the other was a blackjack IIRC. Anyway without thinking I corrected the error but luckily the dealer broke anyway.

  7. #7


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    As mention it is the best overall play from sim. My reasoning is that with the dealer having an upcard of 5 ( harder at higher tc) you want to advantage of a good double (best play with the info on hand)when the tc is high enough .

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Anyway without thinking I corrected the error but luckily the dealer broke anyway
    it is revealing info about you . best to edit the post and delete my if you want.

  9. #9
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    Planisphere,


    With Hi-Opt II you are side-counting Aces. If you had a sub-optimal TC
    for doubling 8 vs 5 a surplus Ace or two lowers your index for doubling,
    and, of course, a deficit Ace or two increases your index for doubling.
    Each Ace surplus/deficit Ace adjusts the True Count by +2/-2. These
    are Running Count adjustments. The O.P. failed to mention where in
    the shoe he was, so he may have had a double or a hit. The renowned
    Peter Griffin pointed out the folly of doubling when you have not FULLY
    met the index retirement.

  10. #10


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    i use 8v6+2, 8v5 +5, 8v4 +13, 8v3 +20, 7v6 +13, 7v5 +20 with hio2

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