Newbie w/ a plan (am I missing anything)

**BJGUY** · 01-03-2018, 01:08 PM

Hi all,

So a little about me, where I've come from and my "plan". I

didn't even know what basic strategy was up until October of this year (2017). Since then I have been studying blackjack & card counting every single day. I started with just getting basic strategy down cold.

Once I moved past that, I then started working on my counting using the Hi-Lo method. Originally I wasn't timing myself or tracking my results (dumb) but after a week or two I started to and was not satisfied with moving forward until I was able to count down through a deck consistently under 30 seconds (my average is around 23 seconds) without making any errors.

As of recently I have begun to hone my skills at cross-cancelation counting and again focusing not just on speed but on doing this with as few errors as possible. I currently use the Blackjack-All-In-One app on the Google store as I have an Android phone and some of the other ones I've seen are only available for IPhones.

Once I feel I am able to do that with speed and consistency I then plan to move on to memorizing all of the playing deviations, while also focusing on my deck estimations.

From there (hopefully this will be by around late February to early March) I will start going to some local (less than 2 hours away) casinos to try to keep count with the distractions I am not currently used to in the actual casinos. In this initial period I don't believe I will or should fluctuate my bet according to the count. I think I will or should just focus on CAN I keep the count in that environment for extended periods of time. If I lose it, I will try to take note of when and why I lost it so I can try to improve on that.

Once I feel at ease with these "test trips" I then plan on putting everything into action and seeing how I do.

Then later down the road I will then try to implement learning the more advanced tactics, such as ace tracking and things like that.

As far as plans go, am I missing any key components in there that I should be working on before or after I plan on going to actual casinos?

Also, as far as my "local" casinos I basically have Pechanga, Morongo and San Manuel to choose from. I've heard that pretty much all these places are not ideal for CC so if anyone has any other ideas for places within a couple hours from me (I live in Los Angeles) that would be great.

I'm trying NOT to count at The Bicycle or Commerce Casino as these are places I regularly frequent for poker and would hate to get in trouble with them (obviously this is way down the road) and miss out as using them as my go to poker spots.

Thank you in advance!

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 01-03-2018, 01:21 PM

If you believe that after such a short period of time you are

ready to play in live action, you are probably mistaken.

By reputation, I am expected to chide you for going with Hi-Lo,

as opposed to a strong count, like Hi-Opt II, but this Dude abides.

You asked what you are missing. Here are a few things to think about.

Learn to understand "R.O.R." [ Risk of Ruin] to establish your bankroll.

Learn how to fashion an effective, yet polite "bet spread" that will yield a

good "win rate" without resulting in your being barred from play.

Learn to play short sessions ~ ideally between poker sessions.

**Member Name Hidden** · 01-03-2018, 01:35 PM

I would not bother to learn BJ. The overall conditions will be better in Sp21. The heat factor is also dramatically reduced.

**BJGUY** · 01-03-2018, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by Member Name Hidden

I would not bother to learn BJ. The overall conditions will be better in Sp21. The heat factor is also dramatically reduced.

I'm sorry, but what is Sp21?

**BJGUY** · 01-03-2018, 03:03 PM

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

If you believe that after such a short period of time you are

ready to play in live action, you are probably mistaken.

By reputation, I am expected to chide you for going with Hi-Lo,

as opposed to a strong count, like Hi-Opt II, but this Dude abides.

You asked what you are missing. Here are a few things to think about.

Learn to understand "R.O.R." [ Risk of Ruin] to establish your bankroll.

Learn how to fashion an effective, yet polite "bet spread" that will yield a

good "win rate" without resulting in your being barred from play.

Learn to play short sessions ~ ideally between poker sessions.

As far as being "ready to play live action" I am strictly basing this off my current progression; nothing more. If I'm not ready until next year then I'm not ready until next year.

You mentioned Hi-Opt II, may I ask why that is your preferred method and how much more of an edge that gives you?

I would definitely like to understand R.O.R. better. I have a vague understanding of it, but have yet to actually find the formula to calculate it myself instead of just using software. But yes, my bankroll is very small as of now (it does continue to grow though due to poker) but as of now is only around 3K. With such a small bankroll, I was initially planning on WHEN I actually play, only playing a 1-5 bet spread ($5 - $25) I am not expecting to get rich overnight or anything like that. Although I'd be very happy to double my bankroll in 12 - 16 months. (from the time I start playing)

Does that bet spread seem reasonable considering my current bankroll and "hopeful" growth?

**Meistro123** · 01-03-2018, 03:05 PM

get yourself a six deck shoe, discard tray and six decks of cards and play at home for 60 hours

**BJGUY** · 01-03-2018, 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by Meistro123

get yourself a six deck shoe, discard tray and six decks of cards and play at home for 60 hours

I actually have that already. I've been using it occasionally to help me do deck estimations while dealing. Question though, if I am playing dealer and player how many hands should I deal myself or does it not really matter? Thanks!

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 01-03-2018, 03:44 PM

Originally Posted by BJGUY

I'd be very happy to double my bankroll in 12 - 16 months.

Your naive statement indicates an (admittedly) neophyte status.

And yes, you see, we even have a metric for doubling bankrolls...

Learn our terminology what n0 ("n zero"), C.E. and (especially) 'SCORE' mean.

It is a fine thing that you have the humility and courage to see that you have a

long long way to go. Your risk of going bankrupt is (essentially) inversely

proportional to the size of your (cash) bankroll. The steep increments in Risk

are logarithmic.

**BJGenius007** · 01-03-2018, 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by BJGUY

I'm sorry, but what is Sp21?

Spanish 21 is a variant of Blackjack. They remove ten cards from the deck. Rules are quite different. You can redouble and rescue. Not every casino has this game. Actually I rarely see it at my area.

**Meistro123** · 01-03-2018, 04:27 PM

Originally Posted by BJGUY

I actually have that already. I've been using it occasionally to help me do deck estimations while dealing. Question though, if I am playing dealer and player how many hands should I deal myself or does it not really matter? Thanks!

It does not matter.

**BJGUY** · 01-04-2018, 07:01 AM

Originally Posted by BJGenius007

Spanish 21 is a variant of Blackjack. They remove ten cards from the deck. Rules are quite different. You can redouble and rescue. Not every casino has this game. Actually I rarely see it at my area.

Thank you for the idea. I will definitely look into this as far as seeing how the strategy differs and if counting is a useful tool for this game as well.