Side Bets

[Captain Jack]

I was at an casino recently playing BJ that had what I think are some very beatable side bets. I would like to know mathematically if/when to make the side bets based on the True Count.

Table rules were:

6-Deck Shoe
Dealer Hits Soft 17
No Surrender
Split any 2 cards, Up to 4 hands (Split Aces once)
Double Down on any 2 cards

Here are the side bet offers based on your 2-card total and the payoffs:

2-card total of 17-20 pays 2-1
2-card total of 17-18 pays 6-1
2-card total of 18-19 pays 6-1
2-card total of 20-21 pays 5-1
2-card total of 17 pays 12-1
2-card total of 18 pays 14-1
2-card total of 19 pays 15-1
2-card total of 20 pays 8-1
2-card total of 21 pays 19-1
PAIR pays 12-1

Obviously the higher the True Count the better odds you have of being dealt a high 2-card total. When the count would get positive I was placing a small side bet on getting a 2-card total of 20 and/or a Blackjack, which pays 19-1. I happened to be dealt 4 blackjacks in a row while doing that which added to my bankroll nicely.

My question is, what would the True Count need to be for each of those sidebets to be profitable betting long term?

Thank you.

[Midwest Player]

Is this the same Captain Jack that is on BJ21?

[BoSox]

I was placing a small side bet on getting a 2-card total of 20 and/or a Blackjack, which pays 19-1.

CJ, just for clarification purposes you were making two side bets selectively correct. With payoffs of:
2-card total of 20 pays 8-1
2-card total of 21 pays 19-1

Otherwise the payoff would have been 5-1

What were the max bets allowed on each side bet?

My question is, what would the True Count need to be for each of those sidebets to be profitable betting long term?

I do not know the math probilities, but with a balanced count such as Hi Low the TC would not help solving the math, concerning the two card 20 bet you were making without first knowing the excess or lack of aces that comprise the TC. The TC would not help the Hi Low player with the other side bets that have neutral cards 7,8 9.

If you are allowed to make a wager on the side bet up to say a $100 this could help cut plenty of volatility down especially for short banks and risk takers with high ROR. Although players might as well be wearing shirts that say card counters.

[Meistro123]

The 19:1 on a BJ would become +EV at a very low positive true count.

If you take six fives out of a six deck shoe the odds of getting blackjack 4.8%. So not quite +EV at TC 1.

[BoSox]

Is this the same Captain Jack that is on BJ21?

I sure hope it is as the Captain would be a great asset for this board! He possesses loads of knowledge, and experience, in many areas of advantage play.

[21forme]

Is this the same Captain Jack that is on BJ21?

I was wondering that, too. If so, it surprises me that he signed up here to ask this question.

[refinery]

Captain Jack hasn't played blackjack in a long time. Until confirmation, I would assume this is NOT the same Captain Jack.

[21forme]

That's my feeling, too. Also, he's not the type to ask that kind of question online.

[Captain Jack]

CJ, just for clarification purposes you were making two side bets selectively correct. With payoffs of:
2-card total of 20 pays 8-1
2-card total of 21 pays 19-1

Otherwise the payoff would have been 5-1

What were the max bets allowed on each side bet?

I do not know the math probilities, but with a balanced count such as Hi Low the TC would not help solving the math, concerning the two card 20 bet you were making without first knowing the excess or lack of aces that comprise the TC. The TC would not help the Hi Low player with the other side bets that have neutral cards 7,8 9.

If you are allowed to make a wager on the side bet up to say a $100 this could help cut plenty of volatility down especially for short banks and risk takers with high ROR. Although players might as well be wearing shirts that say card counters.

Yes, I was selectively making a side bet on the 8-1 payout on a 2-card total of 20 and on the 19-1 payout on a 2-card total of 21 with a positive TC. Max bets allowed per side bet was $10. For example, I could bet $10 each on both of those side bets. In fact, I bet a max of $10 on each of those side bets all at once if I had wanted.

So, perhaps besides doing a Hi Low count, I should be doing a separate count for Aces alone?

[Captain Jack]

The 19:1 on a BJ would become +EV at a very low positive true count.

If you take six fives out of a six deck shoe the odds of getting blackjack 4.8%. So not quite +EV at TC 1.

So perhaps with a TC of 2 or better, I would have a +EV for the 19:1 BJ side bet, regardless of which specific cards have been played and how many Aces are left in the shoe?

[Marvin]

So perhaps with a TC of 2 or better, I would have a +EV for the 19:1 BJ side bet, regardless of which specific cards have been played and how many Aces are left in the shoe?

What's the max bet? The side bet, if real, is much more valuable than the main game. Use a specialized count to attack it. Sign up for an account so that you can receive private messages. This isn't something to discuss on a public board. In fact, you should probably delete this thread.

[paymypush]

Captain Jack hasn't played blackjack in a long time. Until confirmation, I would assume this is NOT the same Captain Jack.

It can't be him. OP has asked the same question on 2 other sites. On one of those, he was told it was not a good idea to discuss this in public. On both, unlike here, the title of the thread apparently is the name of the side bet.

It's confusing because if that's the name of the bet, it doesn't match the format given and the bet by that name has just over an 18% house edge. No, I didn't forget a decimal.

[Captain Jack]

I am not sure who you are talking about. Of course there could more than 1 person with a similar nickname. As for the sidebet, I don't recall the name of it or if there was a name for it. If someone doubts its existence then by all means assume that I made this up and treat it as a mental exercise. :-)